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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
19.09.2026 10:00
JFE Harenokuni Stadium
Referee: Yoshimi Yamashita
Fagiano Okayama
Match Timeline
Kyoto Sanga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
Joao Pedro · Assist: Rafael Elias
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
18'
Yugo Tatsuta
Fagiano Okayama
⚽
45'
Na Sang-Ho
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
46'
H. Arai ↔ T. Matsuda
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
46'
R. Nakano ↔ Souza Alex
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
50'
Rafael Papagaio
Kyoto Sanga
VAR
54'
Lucas Marcos Meireles
Fagiano Okayama
🟥
57'
Lucas Marcos Meireles
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
60'
A. Esaka ↔ Leo Gaucho
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
69'
I. Fujita ↔ Kamiya Yuta
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
69'
T. Yamane ↔ N. Browne
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
71'
R. Kato ↔ R. Yamanaka
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
76'
Yoshitake Suzuki
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
79'
Joao Pedro ↔ S. Nagasawa
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
84'
H. Tawiah ↔ Y. Ishida
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
89'
Na Sang-Ho ↔ D. Tagami
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
89'
K. Shirai ↔ M. Matsumoto
Fagiano Okayama
🟨
90+1'
Kyo Sato
Kyoto Sanga
⚽
90'
Souza Alex · Assist: R. Yamanaka
Kyoto Sanga

Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fagiano Okayama Win 63.5%
Draw 5.6%
Kyoto Sanga Win 30.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fagiano Okayama1.66
Kyoto Sanga1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
WWDLW
10 GF / 8 GA
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
WLDWL
9 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
2
5
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
5
3.57
Shots on Goal
4.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 7 matches
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 7 matches
Fagiano Okayama Statistic Kyoto Sanga
4 Wins 1
1 Draws 2
2 Losses 4
10 Goals For 9
8 Goals Against 14
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 2
5 BTTS Yes 6
5 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 1
3.57 Shots On Goal 4.29
15.86 Total Shots 12
6.14 Corners 3.14
43% Ball Possession 45.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fagiano Okayama's more proactive style and Kyoto Sanga's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Kyoto Sanga. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fagiano Okayama expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Kyoto Sanga in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kyoto Sanga having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Kyoto Sanga arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Fagiano Okayama arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 10 points compared to Kyoto Sanga in 15 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Fagiano Okayama Analysis

Fagiano Okayama sit 8 with 10 points after 6 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 8:7 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Kawano (3 goals), Lucão (1 goals), Léo Gaúcho (1 goals), with creative support from H. Motoyama (2 assists), Lucão (2 assists), Oberdan (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Kyoto Sanga Analysis

With 5 points from 7 games and a place of 15, Kyoto Sanga still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 9:14 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Rafael Elias (4 goals), R. Nakano (2 goals), Shinnosuke Fukuda (1 goals), with creative support from Rafael Elias (1 assists), R. Nakano (1 assists), Shinnosuke Fukuda (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fagiano Okayama won 5 times, Kyoto Sanga won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:23 from Fagiano Okayama's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1 / Kyoto Sanga 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fagiano Okayama wins 5, draws 4, Kyoto Sanga wins 6

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 0 2 21:14 7 21
W W W L L
2 9 6 2 1 22:6 16 20
W W W L W
3 9 6 2 1 22:10 12 20
W L D W W
4 9 6 2 1 17:8 9 20
W W W W D
5 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
L W W W W
6 9 5 1 3 19:16 3 16
W D L L L
7 9 4 3 2 13:9 4 15
D W D W D
8 9 3 4 2 17:14 3 13
L D W W L
9 9 4 1 4 12:12 0 13
L L W W W
10 9 4 1 4 8:9 -1 13
W W W L D
11 9 4 0 5 16:21 -5 12
L W L W W
12 9 3 3 3 7:12 -5 12
D D L D W
13 9 2 3 4 12:13 -1 9
L L L D W
14 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
D D W L D
15 9 3 0 6 9:15 -6 9
W L L L L
16 9 2 2 5 11:16 -5 8
L W L L D
17 9 2 1 6 11:13 -2 7
W L L D L
18 9 1 3 5 8:16 -8 6
L L L L D
19 9 1 2 6 8:19 -11 5
D L D W L
20 9 0 4 5 4:14 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League