ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio George Capwell

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.3%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
79.6%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Emelec Win 40.2%
Draw 14.4%
Aucas Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Emelec0.95
Aucas1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Emelec Emelec
WWDLW
19 GF / 26 GA
Aucas Aucas
WLDWL
25 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
9
BTTS Yes
9
4
Over 2.5
9
3.05
Shots on Goal
4.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Emelec Emelec 22 matches
Aucas Aucas 24 matches
Emelec Statistic Aucas
7 Wins 11
7 Draws 5
8 Losses 8
19 Goals For 25
26 Goals Against 26
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
9 BTTS Yes 9
16 Over 1.5 12
4 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 7
3.05 Shots On Goal 4.36
10.05 Total Shots 12.41
4.45 Corners 5.14
43.5% Ball Possession 50.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Aucas's more proactive style and Emelec's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aucas. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Emelec expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Aucas in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aucas having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Aucas carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 35 points while Emelec sit 13 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Emelec Analysis

Emelec are currently 13 in the standings with 25 points from 21 matches. The record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 18:24 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Luca Klimowicz (4 goals), Juan Ruiz Gómez (2 goals), Romario Caicedo (2 goals), with creative support from Francisco Pizzini (3 assists), Angelo Mina (2 assists), Luca Klimowicz (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aucas Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 35 points from 21 games, Aucas bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 10 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a 23:21 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Bruno Miranda (5 goals), Andres Mena (3 goals), Snayder Porozo (3 goals), with creative support from Andres Mena (2 assists), Piero Guzmán (2 assists), Santiago Morales (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Emelec won 3 times, Aucas won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:19 from Emelec's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Emelec 4-2-3-1 / Aucas 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Emelec wins 3, draws 6, Aucas wins 6
Last matches: Emelec
28.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
24.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
20.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
1
6
L
17.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
0
W
12.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
05.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Manta FC
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Leones del Norte
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
09.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
05.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
0
2
L
20.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
1
W
Last matches: Aucas
26.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
4
L
23.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
16.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
12.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
08.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
26.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Manta FC
3
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
09.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
02.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Libertad
2
3
L
28.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
Aucas
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Leones del Norte
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
0
W
24.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
3
2
W
19.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2
2
D
08.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
H2H: Emelec vs Aucas
12.04.26
H2H
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
L
23.11.25
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
19.10.25
H2H
Aucas
Emelec
0
0
D
31.08.25
H2H
Aucas
Emelec
1
2
W
11.05.25
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
1
L
06.10.24
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
0
D
19.04.24
H2H
Aucas
Emelec
3
1
L
02.09.23
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
0
D
09.04.23
H2H
Aucas
Emelec
2
1
L
11.09.22
H2H
Aucas
Emelec
1
1
D
27.07.22
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
24.04.22
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
1
0
W
02.08.21
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
2
2
D
28.02.21
H2H
Aucas
Emelec
2
3
W
01.11.20
H2H
Aucas
Emelec
1
1
D
Last matches: Emelec
24.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
12.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
L
20.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
1
W
01.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
H2H at home: Emelec
23.11.25
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
11.05.25
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
1
L
06.10.24
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
0
D
02.09.23
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
0
D
27.07.22
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
24.04.22
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
1
0
W
02.08.21
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
2
2
D
Last matches: Aucas
23.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
12.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
17.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Libertad
2
3
L
23.04.26
Lig
Aucas
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Leones del Norte
1
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
0
W
14.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2
2
D
28.02.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Aucas
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
H2H away: Aucas
23.11.25
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
W
11.05.25
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
1
W
06.10.24
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
0
D
02.09.23
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
0
D
27.07.22
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
W
24.04.22
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
1
0
L
02.08.21
H2H
Emelec
Aucas
2
2
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 18 1 3 55:22 33 55
W W W W W
2 22 10 6 6 33:19 14 36
D W W W L
3 22 10 5 7 28:22 6 35
W W L W W
4
Aucas Away
22 10 5 7 24:25 -1 35
L L W L W
5 22 9 7 6 23:17 6 34
L L W D D
6 22 9 5 8 21:17 4 32
W D L L D
7 22 8 7 7 23:21 2 31
W D W D W
8 22 9 4 9 21:27 -6 31
W L L D L
9 22 7 7 8 19:23 -4 28
D D W D W
10 22 7 6 9 21:26 -5 27
W W L W D
11 22 8 2 12 20:24 -4 26
W L L L L
12 22 7 5 10 27:32 -5 26
L W L L D
13 22 6 7 9 27:33 -6 25
L D W L L
14 22 7 7 8 19:26 -7 25
L D L W D
15 22 6 5 11 13:21 -8 23
L L W W L
16 22 3 5 14 8:27 -19 14
L D L L D
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs