IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Oriel Park
Referee: R. Harvey
Dundalk
Match Timeline
Shamrock Rovers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
John Ross Wilson
Dundalk
🟨
31'
Harvey Warren
Dundalk
🔄
46'
M. Noonan ↔ G. Burke
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
46'
J. McGovern ↔ A. Greene
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
59'
K. Buckley ↔ S. Tracey
Dundalk
🔄
59'
E. Kenny ↔ H. Groome
Dundalk
🔄
63'
A. Brennan ↔ J. Mulraney
Shamrock Rovers
78'
T. Wilson · Assist: D. Horgan
Dundalk
🔄
79'
G. Arubi ↔ D. Mullen
Dundalk
🔄
80'
J. Byrne ↔ D. Watts
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
80'
D. Cleary ↔ C. Malley
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
85'
H. Warren ↔ S. Spaight
Dundalk
🟨
86'
Shane Tracey
Dundalk
🟨
87'
John Ross Wilson
Dundalk
🟥
87'
John Ross Wilson
Dundalk

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Dundalk Win 36%
Draw 12.6%
Shamrock Rovers Win 51.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundalk1.39
Shamrock Rovers1.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundalk Dundalk
WWDLW
33 GF / 29 GA
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers
WLDWL
36 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.83
Average Goals Scored
2
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
0.72
13
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
8
6.25
Shots on Goal
4.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundalk Dundalk 18 matches
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 18 matches
Dundalk Statistic Shamrock Rovers
6 Wins 12
7 Draws 4
5 Losses 2
33 Goals For 36
29 Goals Against 13
1.83 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 0.72
13 BTTS Yes 8
17 Over 1.5 13
12 Over 2.5 8
9 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 9
2 Failed To Score 2
6.25 Shots On Goal 4.69
16.5 Total Shots 13.13
6.44 Corners 5.25
51.4% Ball Possession 60.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Shamrock Rovers look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 34 points while Dundalk sit 4 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundalk expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Shamrock Rovers in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shamrock Rovers having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Shamrock Rovers.

Dundalk Analysis

With 22 points from 16 games and a place of 4, Dundalk still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 27:26, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Horgan (5 goals), G. Arubi (4 goals), Declan McDaid (3 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (4 assists), G. Arubi (3 assists), E. Kenny (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Shamrock Rovers Analysis

Shamrock Rovers approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 34 points after 16 outings. With 10 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 27:13, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by G. Burke (5 goals), John McGovern (3 goals), M. Noonan (3 goals), with creative support from J. Byrne (4 assists), John McGovern (3 assists), T. Sobowale (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 5 times, Shamrock Rovers won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:18 from Dundalk's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
Predicted formations: Dundalk 4-2-3-1 / Shamrock Rovers 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Dundalk wins 5, draws 2, Shamrock Rovers wins 8

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 16 7 5 46:27 19 55
D W D W W
2 29 14 8 7 45:25 20 50
L W W D D
3 29 14 8 7 50:34 16 50
W W L D W
4 29 10 10 9 46:45 1 40
W L L D D
5 27 8 11 8 37:39 -2 35
D L L W D
6 29 7 13 9 41:40 1 34
D L W D L
7 28 8 10 10 36:42 -6 34
D W D D D
8 29 7 11 11 39:48 -9 32
W D W W D
9 29 6 10 13 33:48 -15 28
L L D D D
10 29 5 8 16 23:48 -25 23
L D L D D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation