IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
29.05.2026 18:45
Weavers Park
Referee: P. Norton
Drogheda United
Match Timeline
Waterford
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
T. Lonergan
Waterford
21'
K. Long · Assist: C. Noonan
Waterford
27'
M. Doyle · Assist: B. Kavanagh
Drogheda United
🟨
50'
Benny Couto
Waterford
58'
S. Farrell
Drogheda United
🔄
67'
T. Oluwa ↔ J. Godden
Drogheda United
69'
R. Brennan
Drogheda United
🟨
76'
Jago Godden
Drogheda United
🟨
77'
Mark Doyle
Drogheda United
🟨
83'
Leo Burney
Drogheda United
🟨
83'
John Mahon
Waterford
🔄
83'
E. O'Brien ↔ D. Kareem
Drogheda United
🔄
83'
C. Noonan ↔ T. Coyle
Waterford
🔄
84'
S. Glenfield ↔ C. Barrett
Waterford
86'
B. Couto
Waterford
🟨
89'
Will Johnson
Waterford
🟨
90+3'
Ryan Brennan
Drogheda United
🟨
90+2'
Shane Farell
Drogheda United

Drogheda United vs Waterford Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Drogheda United Win 86.2%
Draw 8.7%
Waterford Win 5.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Drogheda United1.53
Waterford1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WWDLW
27 GF / 32 GA
Waterford Waterford
WLDWL
31 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.88
15
BTTS Yes
16
11
Over 2.5
13
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Drogheda United Drogheda United 21 matches
Waterford Waterford 25 matches
Drogheda United Statistic Waterford
6 Wins 6
7 Draws 7
8 Losses 12
27 Goals For 31
32 Goals Against 47
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88
15 BTTS Yes 16
16 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 8
3.5 Shots On Goal 3.33
9.61 Total Shots 11.61
4 Corners 4.94
39.3% Ball Possession 40%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Waterford. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Drogheda United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Drogheda United expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Waterford in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Waterford having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Drogheda United Analysis

Drogheda United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 19 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats with a 21:28 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Doyle (7 goals), Conor Keeley (3 goals), W. Davis (3 goals), with creative support from B. Kavanagh (2 assists), K. Cruise (2 assists), Conor Keeley (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford are currently 10 in the standings with 10 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, while the 17:35 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Lonergan (7 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), P. Amond (3 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), Evan McLaughlin (2 assists), T. Lonergan (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Drogheda United won 5 times, Waterford won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:20 from Drogheda United's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Drogheda United 4-2-3-1 / Waterford 5-3-2
H2H summary: Drogheda United wins 5, draws 4, Waterford wins 6

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 16 7 5 46:27 19 55
D W D W W
2 29 14 8 7 45:25 20 50
L W W D D
3 29 14 8 7 50:34 16 50
W W L D W
4 29 10 10 9 46:45 1 40
W L L D D
5 27 8 11 8 37:39 -2 35
D L L W D
6 29 7 13 9 41:40 1 34
D L W D L
7 28 8 10 10 36:42 -6 34
D W D D D
8 29 7 11 11 39:48 -9 32
W D W W D
9 29 6 10 13 33:48 -15 28
L L D D D
10 29 5 8 16 23:48 -25 23
L D L D D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation