COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
19.09.2026 19:00
Estadio Departamental Libertad

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Pasto Win 10%
Draw 22%
Once Caldas Win 68%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Pasto1.24
Once Caldas1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
WWDLW
38 GF / 43 GA
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WLDWL
46 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
16
BTTS Yes
23
15
Over 2.5
14
3.62
Shots on Goal
5.72

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 30 matches
Once Caldas Once Caldas 31 matches
Deportivo Pasto Statistic Once Caldas
11 Wins 10
6 Draws 15
13 Losses 6
38 Goals For 46
43 Goals Against 37
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
16 BTTS Yes 23
23 Over 1.5 26
15 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 5
3.62 Shots On Goal 5.72
11.52 Total Shots 15.24
4.17 Corners 5.24
52.2% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Once Caldas. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Deportivo Pasto have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Pasto expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Once Caldas in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Once Caldas having the stronger overall control.

Deportivo Pasto Analysis

Deportivo Pasto approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 3 with 34 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 29:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Santiago Córdoba (5 goals), D. Chávez (2 goals), Jonathan Perlaza (2 goals), with creative support from D. Chávez (3 assists), E. Serje (2 assists), M. Gil (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Once Caldas Analysis

Placed 5 with 33 points from 19 outings, Once Caldas continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 31:22 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Moreno (11 goals), J. Zapata (10 goals), Pipe Gómez (4 goals), with creative support from J. Cuesta (7 assists), A. Correa (4 assists), Pipe Gómez (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 7 times, Once Caldas won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:19 from Deportivo Pasto's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (90%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Pasto 4-2-3-1 / Once Caldas 4-3-3
H2H summary: Deportivo Pasto wins 7, draws 1, Once Caldas wins 7

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L D L W W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification