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12.11.2026 21:00
Estadio Departamental Libertad

Deportivo Pasto vs Junior Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 65.3%
Odds 6.50
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 4.00
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
65.3%
6.50 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
4.00 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
13.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
17.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Pasto Win 39.2%
Draw 26.1%
Junior Win 34.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Pasto1.2
Junior1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
L W L W L
4 GF / 10 GA
Junior Junior
W L D W D
6 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
17
BTTS Yes
27
19
Over 2.5
23
3.49
Shots on Goal
4.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 40 matches
Junior Junior 49 matches
Deportivo Pasto Statistic Junior
15 Wins 18
7 Draws 13
18 Losses 18
44 Goals For 68
57 Goals Against 66
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
17 BTTS Yes 27
28 Over 1.5 39
19 Over 2.5 23
8 Over 3.5 13
13 Clean Sheets 13
13 Failed To Score 11
3.49 Shots On Goal 4.22
11.64 Total Shots 13.24
4.05 Corners 4.63
51.2% Ball Possession 51.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Junior. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Deportivo Pasto have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Pasto expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Junior in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Junior having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Deportivo Pasto Analysis

Deportivo Pasto approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 3 with 34 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats with a 29:25 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Santiago Córdoba (5 goals), Diego Chávez (4 goals), Enrique Serje (3 goals), with creative support from Diego Chávez (3 assists), Enrique Serje (2 assists), Mayer Gil (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Junior Analysis

Junior come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 35 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 31:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luis Muriel (15 goals), T. Gutiérrez (8 goals), Guillermo Paiva (6 goals), with creative support from Guillermo Paiva (6 assists), Yeison Suárez (4 assists), Luis Muriel (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 6 times, Junior won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:17 from Deportivo Pasto's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (73.9%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2 / Junior 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Pasto wins 6, draws 4, Junior wins 5

Standings

Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 3 3 37:17 20 39
W D W W W
2 18 10 6 2 31:12 19 36
D D W W D
3 18 9 7 2 26:10 16 34
D W D W D
4 18 8 8 2 30:17 13 32
W D W L L
5 18 9 4 5 28:18 10 31
W L L W W
6 18 9 2 7 28:25 3 29
W W L L L
7 18 6 9 3 25:16 9 27
L D D W D
8 18 7 6 5 22:18 4 27
W W D D W
9 18 7 5 6 23:21 2 26
W W L L L
10 18 6 7 5 22:21 1 25
L W W L W
11 18 7 3 8 19:26 -7 24
L W L L W
12 18 7 2 9 21:24 -3 23
W W L L W
13 18 4 8 6 22:25 -3 20
L W L W D
14 18 4 7 7 25:27 -2 19
W L D W D
15 18 5 4 9 15:29 -14 19
W L D W L
16 18 5 3 10 18:31 -13 18
L L L W W
17 18 3 8 7 16:26 -10 17
L L W D W
18 18 4 3 11 13:29 -16 15
L W L W L
19 18 3 4 11 17:35 -18 13
L L L W L
20 18 1 9 8 17:28 -11 12
L L L D L
Post season qualification