ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
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Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.6%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.6%
-
BTTS No
56%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Moron Win 74.6%
Draw 3.7%
San Miguel Win 21.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Moron1.39
San Miguel0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron
WWDLW
43 GF / 26 GA
San Miguel San Miguel
WLDWL
20 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
0.77
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
13
BTTS Yes
10
13
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron 27 matches
San Miguel San Miguel 26 matches
Deportivo Moron Statistic San Miguel
14 Wins 6
6 Draws 11
7 Losses 9
43 Goals For 20
26 Goals Against 28
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 0.77
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
13 BTTS Yes 10
21 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 2
10 Clean Sheets 9
5 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Deportivo Moron's more proactive style and San Miguel's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. San Miguel arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors San Miguel. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward San Miguel having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Deportivo Moron arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 45 points compared to San Miguel in 12 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Deportivo Moron Analysis

Deportivo Moron approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 45 points after 25 outings. The return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 41:24, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 10 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

San Miguel Analysis

San Miguel approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 29 points from 24 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 11 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 19:23 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Moron won 1 times, San Miguel won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Deportivo Moron's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
H2H summary: Deportivo Moron wins 1, draws 0, San Miguel wins 2
Last matches: Deportivo Moron
21.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
San Telmo
2
2
D
15.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
2
0
W
09.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Acassuso
4
1
W
02.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Chaco For Ever
0
2
L
26.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Ferro Carril Oeste
4
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Madryn
2
2
D
04.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Defensores De Belgrano
1
2
L
21.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Ferro Carril Oeste
0
1
L
13.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Ciudad de Bolívar
2
1
W
07.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Almirante Brown
1
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Atletico Mitre
3
1
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
CA Estudiantes
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
All Boys
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Los Andes
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Godoy Cruz
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Racing Cordoba
2
1
W
23.04.26
Cop
Deportivo Moron
Midland
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Colon Santa Fe
2
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
San Miguel
1
2
L
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
San Telmo
1
0
W
Last matches: San Miguel
22.08.26
Pri
San Miguel
Colon Santa Fe
1
2
L
15.08.26
Pri
San Miguel
Colegiales
2
0
W
09.08.26
Pri
San Miguel
Racing Cordoba
0
1
L
02.08.26
Pri
San Miguel
San Telmo
0
1
L
26.07.26
Pri
San Miguel
Acassuso
0
0
D
11.07.26
Pri
San Miguel
Ferro Carril Oeste
0
1
L
05.07.26
Pri
San Miguel
Central Norte
1
1
D
20.06.26
Pri
San Miguel
Acassuso
2
0
W
14.06.26
Pri
San Miguel
Deportivo Madryn
2
2
D
06.06.26
Pri
San Miguel
Defensores De Belgrano
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
San Miguel
Ciudad de Bolívar
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pri
San Miguel
Almirante Brown
1
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
San Miguel
Atletico Mitre
0
4
L
09.05.26
Pri
San Miguel
CA Estudiantes
1
1
D
30.04.26
Pri
San Miguel
All Boys
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pri
San Miguel
Los Andes
0
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
San Miguel
Godoy Cruz
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pri
San Miguel
Deportivo Moron
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
San Miguel
Colon Santa Fe
0
3
L
28.03.26
Pri
San Miguel
Colegiales
0
0
D
H2H: Deportivo Moron vs San Miguel
11.04.26
H2H
San Miguel
Deportivo Moron
2
1
L
19.10.24
H2H
San Miguel
Deportivo Moron
0
1
W
02.06.24
H2H
Deportivo Moron
San Miguel
0
1
L
Last matches: Deportivo Moron
15.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
2
0
W
09.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Acassuso
4
1
W
26.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Ferro Carril Oeste
4
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Madryn
2
2
D
07.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Almirante Brown
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
CA Estudiantes
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Los Andes
0
0
D
26.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Racing Cordoba
2
1
W
23.04.26
Cop
Deportivo Moron
Midland
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Colon Santa Fe
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
San Telmo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Chaco For Ever
3
2
W
01.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Central Norte
2
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Defensores De Belgrano
1
1
D
30.06.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Riestra
1
1
D
21.06.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Almirante Brown
0
0
D
06.06.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Platense
2
1
W
24.05.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Barracas Central
1
1
D
10.05.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Villa San Carlos
0
0
D
28.04.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Excursionistas
5
0
W
H2H at home: Deportivo Moron
02.06.24
H2H
Deportivo Moron
San Miguel
0
1
L
Last matches: San Miguel
09.08.26
Pri
San Miguel
Racing Cordoba
0
1
L
02.08.26
Pri
San Miguel
San Telmo
0
1
L
05.07.26
Pri
San Miguel
Central Norte
1
1
D
20.06.26
Pri
San Miguel
Acassuso
2
0
W
14.06.26
Pri
San Miguel
Deportivo Madryn
2
2
D
31.05.26
Pri
San Miguel
Ciudad de Bolívar
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
San Miguel
Atletico Mitre
0
4
L
30.04.26
Pri
San Miguel
All Boys
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pri
San Miguel
Godoy Cruz
0
0
D
04.04.26
Pri
San Miguel
Colon Santa Fe
0
3
L
28.03.26
Pri
San Miguel
Colegiales
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
San Miguel
Ferro Carril Oeste
1
1
D
17.02.26
Cop
San Miguel
Aldosivi
0
3
L
12.12.23
Pri
San Miguel
Douglas Haig
0
0
D
20.11.23
Pri
San Miguel
Argentino Quilmes
0
0
D
05.11.23
Pri
San Miguel
Deportivo Armenio
1
0
W
16.10.23
Pri
San Miguel
Talleres Remedios
0
0
D
30.09.23
Pri
San Miguel
Villa San Carlos
2
1
W
18.09.23
Pri
San Miguel
Argentino Quilmes
1
0
W
03.09.23
Pri
San Miguel
Deportivo Armenio
0
2
L
H2H away: San Miguel
02.06.24
H2H
Deportivo Moron
San Miguel
0
1
W

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 16 4 6 32:23 9 52
W W W L L
2 25 13 6 6 41:24 17 45
D W W L W
3 26 12 9 5 34:20 14 45
W W W D L
4 26 11 8 7 22:16 6 41
W L W W D
5 25 10 10 5 36:24 12 40
W D W W D
6 25 11 7 7 29:22 7 40
W L W W W
7 26 9 8 9 23:22 1 35
L W L D L
8 26 8 11 7 22:23 -1 35
D L L L W
9 25 8 9 8 20:15 5 33
L L L L D
10 26 8 8 10 24:29 -5 32
D D W L W
11 25 6 11 8 20:25 -5 29
L W L L D
12 26 6 11 9 25:33 -8 29
L D W W D
13 25 6 9 10 17:25 -8 27
W D D W L
14 26 5 12 9 15:24 -9 27
L W D L D
15 25 5 11 9 16:23 -7 26
L D L D D
16 25 6 7 12 22:29 -7 25
W L L W W
17 25 5 9 11 20:29 -9 24
D L L W L
18 25 5 7 13 18:30 -12 22
L D L D D
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation