ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
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Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.8%
-
BTTS Yes
71%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Moron Win 66.8%
Draw 4%
Almagro Win 29.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Moron1.33
Almagro0.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron
WWDLW
35 GF / 23 GA
Almagro Almagro
WLDWL
20 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
0.87
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
11
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron 24 matches
Almagro Almagro 23 matches
Deportivo Moron Statistic Almagro
12 Wins 8
5 Draws 5
7 Losses 10
35 Goals For 20
23 Goals Against 26
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
11 BTTS Yes 8
18 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 2
9 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportivo Moron's more proactive style and Almagro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Deportivo Moron arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 38 points compared to Almagro in 12 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Almagro. Deportivo Moron have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Almagro having the stronger overall control.

Deportivo Moron Analysis

With 38 points from 22 games and a place of 2, Deportivo Moron still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats with a 33:21 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Almagro Analysis

So far, Almagro have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 29 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, while the 20:26 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Moron won 4 times, Almagro won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:17 from Deportivo Moron's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
H2H summary: Deportivo Moron wins 4, draws 5, Almagro wins 6
Last matches: Deportivo Moron
02.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Chaco For Ever
0
2
L
26.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Ferro Carril Oeste
4
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Madryn
2
2
D
04.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Defensores De Belgrano
1
2
L
21.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Ferro Carril Oeste
0
1
L
13.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Ciudad de Bolívar
2
1
W
07.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Almirante Brown
1
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Atletico Mitre
3
1
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
CA Estudiantes
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
All Boys
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Los Andes
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Godoy Cruz
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Racing Cordoba
2
1
W
23.04.26
Cop
Deportivo Moron
Midland
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Colon Santa Fe
2
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
San Miguel
1
2
L
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
San Telmo
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Acassuso
3
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Chaco For Ever
3
2
W
Last matches: Almagro
05.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0
2
L
01.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Midland
1
1
D
27.07.26
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
3
1
W
12.07.26
Pri
Almagro
San Martin Tucuman
0
3
L
04.07.26
Pri
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
W
20.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
2
0
W
13.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Agropecuario
2
1
W
06.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Tristan Suarez
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Club Atlético Güemes
2
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Chacarita Juniors
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Almagro
San Martin S.J.
1
2
L
11.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Nueva Chicago
2
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Temperley
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Maipu
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Jujuy
1
6
L
11.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Patronato
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Colegiales
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Quilmes
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Midland
1
1
D
H2H: Deportivo Moron vs Almagro
28.03.26
H2H
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
2
0
L
30.06.24
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
0
0
D
10.02.24
H2H
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
2
1
L
10.06.23
H2H
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
0
1
W
04.02.23
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
0
1
L
06.08.22
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
3
0
W
06.11.21
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
1
0
W
11.07.21
H2H
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
2
1
L
03.09.18
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
0
2
L
05.11.17
H2H
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
2
2
D
07.12.15
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
1
1
D
28.11.15
H2H
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
4
0
L
27.09.15
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
1
0
W
11.05.15
H2H
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
1
1
D
28.09.14
H2H
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
0
0
D
Last matches: Deportivo Moron
26.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Ferro Carril Oeste
4
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Madryn
2
2
D
07.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Almirante Brown
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
CA Estudiantes
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Los Andes
0
0
D
26.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Racing Cordoba
2
1
W
23.04.26
Cop
Deportivo Moron
Midland
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Colon Santa Fe
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
San Telmo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Chaco For Ever
3
2
W
01.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Central Norte
2
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Defensores De Belgrano
1
1
D
30.06.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Riestra
1
1
D
21.06.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Almirante Brown
0
0
D
06.06.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Platense
2
1
W
24.05.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Barracas Central
1
1
D
10.05.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Villa San Carlos
0
0
D
28.04.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Excursionistas
5
0
W
12.04.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Colegiales
1
0
W
25.03.17
Pri
Deportivo Moron
Comunicaciones
3
0
W
H2H at home: Deportivo Moron
30.06.24
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
0
0
D
04.02.23
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
0
1
L
06.08.22
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
3
0
W
06.11.21
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
1
0
W
03.09.18
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
0
2
L
07.12.15
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
1
1
D
27.09.15
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
1
0
W
Last matches: Almagro
27.07.26
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
3
1
W
12.07.26
Pri
Almagro
San Martin Tucuman
0
3
L
06.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Tristan Suarez
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Chacarita Juniors
0
1
L
11.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Nueva Chicago
2
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Maipu
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Jujuy
1
6
L
04.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Colegiales
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Midland
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
0
0
D
07.12.15
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
1
1
D
24.11.15
Pri
Almagro
CA Estudiantes
3
1
W
19.11.15
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
2
1
W
07.11.15
Pri
Almagro
Comunicaciones
2
0
W
17.10.15
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Armenio
1
0
W
10.10.15
Pri
Almagro
Sportivo Italiano
0
0
D
27.09.15
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
0
1
L
19.09.15
Pri
Almagro
Platense
1
0
W
06.09.15
Pri
Almagro
Defensores De Belgrano
0
1
L
H2H away: Almagro
30.06.24
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
0
0
D
04.02.23
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
0
1
W
06.08.22
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
3
0
L
06.11.21
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
1
0
L
03.09.18
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
0
2
W
07.12.15
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
1
1
D
27.09.15
H2H
Deportivo Moron
Almagro
1
0
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 13 4 6 26:21 5 43
L L W W W
2 22 11 5 6 33:21 12 38
L W D L L
3 23 9 9 5 28:19 9 36
D L L W W
4 23 9 8 6 17:13 4 35
W D D D W
5 22 9 7 6 25:19 6 34
W W W L L
6 23 8 10 5 21:19 2 34
L W D L W
7 22 8 9 5 19:9 10 33
L D W L L
8 22 8 9 5 29:22 7 33
W D D L W
9 23 8 8 7 20:19 1 32
D L D W D
10 23 7 6 10 22:28 -6 27
L W L W D
11 22 5 11 6 17:22 -5 26
L D L D W
12 22 5 10 7 15:19 -4 25
D D L W L
13 23 5 10 8 22:27 -5 25
W D W L D
14 22 5 8 9 18:23 -5 23
W L L L W
15 23 4 11 8 13:22 -9 23
L D D D D
16 22 5 7 10 20:26 -6 22
W W W D W
17 22 5 7 10 14:23 -9 22
W L L D W
18 22 5 6 11 16:24 -8 21
D D L D L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation