ARGENTINA PRIMERA B METROPOLITANA
--.--.---- --:--
Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium
Deportivo Merlo
Match Timeline
Real Pilar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Leandro Figueredo
Deportivo Merlo
21'
F. Aguerre
Deportivo Merlo
37'
L. Vallejo
Deportivo Merlo
44'
T. Camargo
Real Pilar
🔄
46'
P. Perafan ↔ S. Sanchez
Real Pilar
🟨
47'
Valentin Gelos
Real Pilar
🟨
51'
eloy rodriguez
Real Pilar
🟨
56'
Lucas Javier Vallejo
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
62'
B. Martin ↔ M. Crocco
Real Pilar
🔄
62'
M. Rojas ↔ S. Blanco
Real Pilar
🔄
62'
D. Vergara ↔ V. Mancini
Real Pilar
66'
I. Sandoval
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
68'
L. Vallejo ↔ L. Ibarra
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
68'
R. Hernandez ↔ J. E. Da Rosa
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
76'
D. Cabrera ↔ G. Ojeda
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
76'
F. Benitez ↔ E. Quinteros
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
79'
E. Rodriguez ↔ R. Aguilar
Real Pilar
🟨
82'
facundo aguerre
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
85'
F. Aguerre ↔ C. Sineiro
Deportivo Merlo
🟨
87'
Nahuel Ríos
Real Pilar
90'
S. Blanco
Real Pilar

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.6%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Merlo Win 52.6%
Draw 13.1%
Real Pilar Win 34.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Merlo1.13
Real Pilar1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Merlo Deportivo Merlo
WWDLW
27 GF / 35 GA
Real Pilar Real Pilar
WLDWL
27 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
13
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Merlo Deportivo Merlo 24 matches
Real Pilar Real Pilar 25 matches
Deportivo Merlo Statistic Real Pilar
8 Wins 10
8 Draws 7
8 Losses 8
27 Goals For 27
35 Goals Against 28
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
13 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 18
11 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Real Pilar's more proactive style and Deportivo Merlo's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Real Pilar having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Real Pilar. Deportivo Merlo have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Deportivo Merlo Analysis

With 31 points from 21 games and a place of 9, Deportivo Merlo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 26:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Real Pilar Analysis

From their first 21 matches, Real Pilar have collected 32 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 24:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Merlo won 3 times, Real Pilar won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:6 from Deportivo Merlo's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.9%)
H2H summary: Deportivo Merlo wins 3, draws 1, Real Pilar wins 2

Standings

Prim B Metro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 8 7 49:27 22 62
L W W W L
2 33 16 12 5 44:22 22 60
W W D L D
3 33 16 12 5 39:20 19 60
D W D D W
4 33 16 12 5 35:16 19 60
D D W W L
5 33 17 9 7 35:17 18 60
W D L W L
6 33 15 10 8 38:25 13 55
W L L W W
7 33 14 10 9 37:32 5 52
D W W D D
8 33 13 8 12 35:37 -2 47
W L L W W
9 33 12 10 11 39:42 -3 46
D W L L D
10 33 10 13 10 38:34 4 43
W W D L W
11 32 11 10 11 32:31 1 43
L W D L D
12 33 10 11 12 30:32 -2 41
D L D D W
13 33 9 13 11 31:36 -5 40
L W L D L
14 32 9 12 11 34:47 -13 39
L D D L D
15 33 9 11 13 34:38 -4 38
L W W W W
16 33 8 13 12 28:35 -7 37
L L L W D
17 33 8 12 13 25:33 -8 36
D W L L W
18 33 9 8 16 28:39 -11 35
W L W D D
19 33 7 12 14 28:36 -8 33
D W W L L
20 33 7 12 14 21:35 -14 33
D L D L W
21 33 3 19 11 15:29 -14 28
L L D L D
22 33 1 11 21 19:51 -32 14
L L D D L
Promotion - Primera Nacional
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C (Apertura)