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Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Maldonado Win 85.5%
Draw 4.4%
Danubio Win 10.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Maldonado1.43
Danubio0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WWDLW
50 GF / 28 GA
Danubio Danubio
WLDWL
27 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
0.82
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
15
BTTS Yes
15
13
Over 2.5
12
1
Shots on Goal
1.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 32 matches
Danubio Danubio 33 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Statistic Danubio
17 Wins 6
8 Draws 14
7 Losses 13
50 Goals For 27
28 Goals Against 41
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
15 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 20
13 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 7
14 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 15
1 Shots On Goal 1.5
2.4 Total Shots 4.5
1.2 Corners 2
20.2% Ball Possession 24.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Deportivo Maldonado's more proactive style and Danubio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Danubio. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Maldonado expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Danubio in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Danubio having the stronger overall control. Deportivo Maldonado arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 59 points compared to Danubio in 15 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 59 points after 32 outings. The return of 17 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 50:28, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Danubio Analysis

Danubio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 29 points from 32 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 14 draws, and 13 defeats with a 26:41 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-1-2 / Danubio 4-4-2

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 19 7 7 51:27 24 63
L D W D W
2 32 17 8 7 50:28 22 59
D W W W L
3 33 17 6 10 54:39 15 57
L W L D L
4 33 15 11 7 39:27 12 56
W L L L D
5 32 17 4 11 48:38 10 55
W W W W D
6 33 14 11 8 44:31 13 53
W D W W D
7 33 14 8 11 41:42 -1 50
L L W W D
8 33 12 7 14 44:43 1 43
W W W L L
9 33 10 10 13 37:41 -4 40
L W D D W
10 33 10 8 15 32:44 -12 38
L L L L L
11 33 10 7 16 33:43 -10 37
W W D L L
12 33 10 7 16 27:48 -21 37
D W L D L
13 33 8 11 14 30:40 -10 35
L L L W L
14 33 8 10 15 30:38 -8 34
D L L L L
15 33 6 14 13 27:41 -14 32
W L W L D
16 33 9 5 19 30:47 -17 32
W D L W W
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