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19.09.2026 21:30
Estadio Domingo Burgueno Miguel
Referee: J. Burgos
Deportivo Maldonado
Match Timeline
Cerro Largo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
R. Cesar
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
33'
Mario García
Cerro Largo
🟨
44'
Christian Tabó
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
44'
Sebastián Assis
Cerro Largo
🔄
56'
M. Garcia ↔ B. Lozano
Cerro Largo
🔄
56'
A. de Luca ↔ D. Daguerre
Cerro Largo
🔄
63'
S. Cartagena ↔ L. Ibanez
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
63'
S. Ramirez ↔ C. Mayada
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
63'
G. Larrazabal ↔ C. Bolzan
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
73'
R. Cesar ↔ L. Nunez
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
81'
Facundo Tealde
Deportivo Maldonado
🔄
82'
A. Segovia ↔ Pipe
Cerro Largo
🔄
82'
S. Assis ↔ L. Piriz
Cerro Largo
🔄
85'
C. Tabo ↔ G. Sosa
Deportivo Maldonado
⚽
89'
C. Bolzan
Deportivo Maldonado
🟨
90+3'
Lucas Emiliano Píriz Rodríguez
Cerro Largo
🔄
90'
A. Piegas ↔ N. Bertocchi
Cerro Largo

Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro Largo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 46.8%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
46.8%
- ▥
BTTS No
65.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Maldonado Win 46.8%
Draw 16.5%
Cerro Largo Win 36.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Maldonado1.33
Cerro Largo0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WWDLW
42 GF / 27 GA
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WLDWL
28 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
14
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 28 matches
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 28 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Statistic Cerro Largo
14 Wins 8
7 Draws 9
7 Losses 11
42 Goals For 28
27 Goals Against 30
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
14 BTTS Yes 12
20 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 4
11 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Deportivo Maldonado's more proactive style and Juventud's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Maldonado expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Juventud in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juventud having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Deportivo Maldonado arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 49 points compared to Juventud in 11 on 32, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Juventud.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 49 points after 28 matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 42:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Cerro Largo Analysis

Juventud are currently 11 in the standings with 32 points from 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses, while the 32:38 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Maldonado won 0 times, Cerro Largo won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:7 from Deportivo Maldonado's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.5%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-1-2 / Cerro Largo 4-3-3
H2H summary: Deportivo Maldonado wins 0, draws 1, Cerro Largo wins 4

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 19 7 6 51:26 25 63
D W D W W
2 32 17 8 7 50:28 22 59
D W W W L
3 32 17 6 9 53:37 16 57
W L D L W
4 33 15 11 7 39:27 12 56
W L L L D
5 32 17 4 11 48:38 10 55
W W W W D
6 32 13 11 8 43:31 12 50
D W W D L
7 33 14 8 11 41:42 -1 50
L L W W D
8 32 11 7 14 42:42 0 40
W W L L L
9 33 10 10 13 37:41 -4 40
L W D D W
10 32 10 8 14 32:43 -11 38
L L L L D
11 33 10 7 16 33:43 -10 37
W W D L L
12 33 10 7 16 27:48 -21 37
D W L D L
13 33 8 11 14 30:40 -10 35
L L L W L
14 33 8 10 15 30:38 -8 34
D L L L L
15 33 9 5 19 30:47 -17 32
W D L W W
16 32 5 14 13 26:41 -15 29
L W L D D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)