27.07.2026 00:00
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: J. Alarcon
Deportivo Garcilaso
Match Timeline
FC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
C. Olivares · Assist: K. Sandoval
Deportivo Garcilaso
14'
F. Arancibia · Assist: C. Olivares
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
20'
C. Torrejon ↔ A. Gonzalez
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
24'
H. Timana ↔ S. Enciso
FC Cajamarca
🟨
39'
Beto Da Silva
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
46'
C. A. Correa Flores ↔ C. Meza
FC Cajamarca
🟨
55'
Xavi Moreno
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
61'
J. Betancourt ↔ J. Vega
FC Cajamarca
🔄
69'
K. Sandoval ↔ A. Ascues
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
69'
F. Arancibia ↔ L. Rios
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
75'
B. Palacios ↔ M. Rasmussen
FC Cajamarca
🔄
77'
C. Olivares ↔ F. Castelli
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟥
78'
José Soto
FC Cajamarca
83'
M. Rasmussen
FC Cajamarca

Deportivo Garcilaso vs FC Cajamarca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.9%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
81.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 78.9%
Draw 4.1%
FC Cajamarca Win 17%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Garcilaso1.35
FC Cajamarca1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WWDLW
21 GF / 19 GA
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WLDWL
27 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
9
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
11
3.94
Shots on Goal
3.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 18 matches
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 19 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Statistic FC Cajamarca
7 Wins 5
5 Draws 6
6 Losses 8
21 Goals For 27
19 Goals Against 31
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
9 BTTS Yes 13
10 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 0
5 Failed To Score 6
3.94 Shots On Goal 3.17
11.44 Total Shots 8.72
3.39 Corners 2.61
46.3% Ball Possession 41.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Deportivo Garcilaso's more proactive style and FC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC Cajamarca. Deportivo Garcilaso come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Deportivo Garcilaso arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 26 points compared to FC Cajamarca in 15 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Garcilaso expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Cajamarca in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso sit 7 with 26 points after 17 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, while the 21:18 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on Christopher Olivares (5 goals), Beto Da Silva (3 goals), Francisco Arancibia (1 goals), with creative support from Francisco Arancibia (3 assists), Christopher Olivares (1 assists), Beto Da Silva (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

FC Cajamarca sit 15 with 17 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats with a 23:28 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Brandon Palacios (4 goals), Hernán Barcos (2 goals), Mauricio Arrasco (2 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Enciso (3 assists), Hernán Barcos (2 assists), Ricardo Lagos (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 times, FC Cajamarca won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Deportivo Garcilaso's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2-3-1 / FC Cajamarca 4-4-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Garcilaso wins 1, draws 1, FC Cajamarca wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 27 14 6 7 39:24 15 48
W L W W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 27 9 5 13 26:31 -5 32
L W L W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 27 7 9 11 35:38 -3 30
L L D L W
15 27 7 6 14 41:52 -11 27
L W L W L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 26 5 7 14 27:41 -14 22
L L L L D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2