COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
22.08.2026 21:05
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Referee: Santiago Bismarks
Deportes Tolima
Match Timeline
Bucaramanga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Leonardo Flores
Bucaramanga
VAR
23'
José Ortiz
Bucaramanga
🔄
46'
L. Flores ↔ Fabry
Bucaramanga
VAR
55'
Homer Martinez
Deportes Tolima
🟨
57'
Sebastián Guzmán
Deportes Tolima
🔄
65'
L. Pons ↔ K. Londono
Bucaramanga
🔄
65'
F. Charrupi ↔ A. Zarate
Bucaramanga
🔄
66'
S. Guzman ↔ J. Mosquera
Deportes Tolima
🔄
66'
L. Sanchez ↔ K. Florez
Deportes Tolima
🟨
76'
José García
Bucaramanga
🔄
77'
S. Aguayo ↔ J. Valencia
Deportes Tolima
🔄
80'
N. Castrillon ↔ A. Gutierrez
Bucaramanga
🔄
80'
F. Hinestroza ↔ J. Salazar
Bucaramanga
🟨
89'
Homer Martinez
Deportes Tolima
🔄
89'
J. Hernandez ↔ D. Pedrozo
Deportes Tolima
🟨
90+1'
Daniel Pedrozo
Deportes Tolima
🟨
90+4'
Fabián Sambueza
Bucaramanga
🟨
90+2'
Aldair Zárate
Bucaramanga

Deportes Tolima vs Bucaramanga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.8%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportes Tolima Win 59.8%
Draw 8.8%
Bucaramanga Win 31.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportes Tolima1.23
Bucaramanga1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WWDLW
49 GF / 36 GA
Bucaramanga Bucaramanga
WLDWL
33 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.95
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
15
BTTS Yes
13
15
Over 2.5
12
4.68
Shots on Goal
4.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 38 matches
Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 24 matches
Deportes Tolima Statistic Bucaramanga
17 Wins 7
9 Draws 10
12 Losses 7
49 Goals For 33
36 Goals Against 27
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
15 BTTS Yes 13
25 Over 1.5 19
15 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 6
15 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 7
4.68 Shots On Goal 4.17
12.58 Total Shots 13.04
4.71 Corners 4.39
56.7% Ball Possession 52.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportes Tolima expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bucaramanga in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bucaramanga having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Bucaramanga. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

Deportes Tolima sit 6 with 31 points after 19 league matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 27:17 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Jorge Hurtado (2 goals), Junior Hernández (1 goals), Sebastián Guzmán (1 goals), with creative support from Jorge Hurtado (1 assists), Junior Hernández (1 assists), Adrián Parra (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Bucaramanga Analysis

So far, Bucaramanga have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 23 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, while the 26:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Emerson Batalla (3 goals), Luciano Pons (1 goals), Fabián Sambueza (1 goals), with creative support from Luciano Pons (2 assists), Emerson Batalla (1 assists), Fabián Sambueza (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportes Tolima won 3 times, Bucaramanga won 2 times, while 10 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:8 from Deportes Tolima's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.2%)
Predicted formations: Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1 / Bucaramanga 4-3-3
H2H summary: Deportes Tolima wins 3, draws 10, Bucaramanga wins 2

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W W D L D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W D W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L W W D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L W D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W D D L
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W D D L
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
D L W W L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D L D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W D D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W W L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W W D
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L D L W
Post season qualification