Login Register
23.10.2026 23:00
Estadio Luis Franzini

Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Defensor Sporting Win 44.5%
Draw 7.7%
Racing Montevideo Win 47.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Defensor Sporting0.86
Racing Montevideo1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
WWDLW
30 GF / 42 GA
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo
WLDWL
39 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
18
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
10
2
Shots on Goal
1.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 34 matches
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 33 matches
Defensor Sporting Statistic Racing Montevideo
8 Wins 15
11 Draws 11
15 Losses 7
30 Goals For 39
42 Goals Against 27
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
18 BTTS Yes 14
22 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 14
11 Failed To Score 9
2 Shots On Goal 1.6
3.33 Total Shots 3.8
2.67 Corners 3.6
26.8% Ball Possession 28.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Racing Montevideo's more proactive style and Defensor Sporting's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Racing Montevideo. Racing Montevideo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 53 points while Defensor Sporting sit 12 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Defensor Sporting expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Racing Montevideo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Racing Montevideo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Defensor Sporting Analysis

Defensor Sporting sit 12 with 35 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 13 defeats with a 30:39 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Racing Montevideo Analysis

Racing Montevideo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 53 points from 32 matches. Their record of 14 wins, 11 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 36:27, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Defensor Sporting 4-2-3-1 / Racing Montevideo 4-4-2

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 19 7 7 51:27 24 63
L D W D W
2 32 17 8 7 50:28 22 59
D W W W L
3 33 17 6 10 54:39 15 57
L W L D L
4 33 15 11 7 39:27 12 56
W L L L D
5 32 17 4 11 48:38 10 55
W W W W D
6 33 14 11 8 44:31 13 53
W D W W D
7 33 14 8 11 41:42 -1 50
L L W W D
8 33 12 7 14 44:43 1 43
W W W L L
9 33 10 10 13 37:41 -4 40
L W D D W
10 33 10 8 15 32:44 -12 38
L L L L L
11 33 10 7 16 33:43 -10 37
W W D L L
12 33 10 7 16 27:48 -21 37
D W L D L
13 33 8 11 14 30:40 -10 35
L L L W L
14 33 8 10 15 30:38 -8 34
D L L L L
15 33 6 14 13 27:41 -14 32
W L W L D
16 33 9 5 19 30:47 -17 32
W D L W W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)