URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: Javier Feres, Uruguay
Danubio
Match Timeline
Progreso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
J. Pereyra
Danubio
🟨
41'
Facundo Kidd
Progreso
🟨
46'
Nicolas Azambuja
Danubio
🔄
46'
F. Kidd ↔ F. De Leon
Progreso
🔄
54'
G. Silva ↔ M. Copelotti
Progreso
🟨
58'
Gianfranco Trasante
Progreso
🔄
69'
M. Ferreira ↔ D. Garcia
Danubio
🔄
69'
M. Peralta ↔ E. Femia
Danubio
🔄
77'
F. Balatti ↔ M. Jourdan
Danubio
🔄
77'
N. Azambuja ↔ S. Fernandez
Danubio
🔄
77'
A. Cougo ↔ F. Andueza
Progreso
🔄
80'
A. Pinheiro ↔ I. Lemmo
Progreso
🔄
80'
J. Dos Santos ↔ G. Silva
Progreso
81'
G. Silva
Progreso
🟨
90+4'
Damina Garcia
Danubio
90'
G. Silva
Progreso

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 96.2%
Odds 1.94
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds 1.65
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
96.2%
1.94
BTTS BTTS No
40%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
1.65
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.80
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10
Correct Score 2-0
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Danubio Win 96.2%
Draw 0%
Progreso Win 3.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Danubio1.31
Progreso1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Danubio Danubio
WWDLW
18 GF / 24 GA
Progreso Progreso
WLDWL
13 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
0.76
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
9
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Danubio Danubio 16 matches
Progreso Progreso 17 matches
Danubio Statistic Progreso
4 Wins 2
6 Draws 4
6 Losses 11
18 Goals For 13
24 Goals Against 27
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 0.76
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
9 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Progreso. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Progreso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Danubio expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Progreso in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Progreso having the stronger overall control.

Danubio Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Danubio have collected 18 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 17:21 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Cabrera (4 goals), S. Fernandez (4 goals), M. Ferreira (3 goals), with creative support from M. Jourdan (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Progreso Analysis

With 10 points from 15 games and a place of 15, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats with a 12:23 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Lopez (3 goals), M. Copelotti (2 goals), D. Sanchez (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Danubio won 2 times, Progreso won 6 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:20 from Danubio's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Danubio 4-3-1-2 / Progreso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Danubio wins 2, draws 7, Progreso wins 6

Lineups

Danubio
Formation
Progreso
M. Goicoechea
M. Goicoechea
F. Balatti
F. Balatti
J. Pereyra
J. Pereyra
M. Rinaldi
M. Rinaldi
T. Cavanagh
T. Cavanagh
C. Mayada
C. Mayada
I. Rossi
I. Rossi
M. Peralta
M. Peralta
E. Cabrera
E. Cabrera
N. Azambuja
N. Azambuja
M. Ferreira
M. Ferreira
A. Requena
A. Requena
G. Trasante
G. Trasante
G. Silva
G. Silva
H. Carroso
H. Carroso
F. Kidd
F. Kidd
A. Colombino
A. Colombino
A. Pinheiro
A. Pinheiro
N. Lopez
N. Lopez
G. Silva
G. Silva
A. Cougo
A. Cougo
J. Dos Santos
J. Dos Santos
Danubio 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
M. Goicoechea
G
40
F. Balatti
↓ 77'
D
3
J. Pereyra
⚽ 26'
D
4
M. Rinaldi
D
31
T. Cavanagh
D
18
C. Mayada
M
16
I. Rossi
M
10
M. Peralta
↓ 69'
M
7
E. Cabrera
F
21
N. Azambuja
↓ 77' 🟨 46'
F
20
M. Ferreira
↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
32
K. Martinez
G
6
L. Sosa
D
33
D. Garcia
↑ 69' 🟨 90+4'
29
M. Jourdan
↑ 77'
D
5
J. Millan
M
15
E. Figueroa
M
22
A. Montana
M
28
E. Femia
↑ 69'
M
14
B. Pereira
30
S. Fernandez
↑ 77'
F
Progreso 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
33
A. Requena
G
16
G. Trasante
🟨 58'
D
27
G. Silva
D
13
H. Carroso
D
14
F. Kidd
↓ 46' 🟨 41'
D
8
A. Colombino
M
5
A. Pinheiro
↓ 80'
M
11
N. Lopez
M
18
G. Silva
↓ 54'
M
40
A. Cougo
↓ 77'
D
25
J. Dos Santos
↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Mehring
G
2
S. Cardozo Coitinho
D
6
F. Andueza
↑ 77'
D
7
F. Fernandez
M
10
I. Lemmo
↑ 80'
M
17
F. De Leon
↑ 46'
M
21
J. Rivero
M
30
A. Codagnone
M
9
G. Silva
⚽ 81' ⚽ 90' ↑ 80'
F
23
M. Copelotti
↑ 54'
F
Last matches: Danubio
18.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
15.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
2
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
2
1
W
26.10.25
Pri
Danubio
CA River Plate
0
1
L
17.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
0
0
D
Last matches: Progreso
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
3
L
09.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
1
1
D
01.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
0
5
L
26.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
1
3
L
H2H: Danubio vs Progreso
30.05.26
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
28.02.26
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
24.08.25
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
L
31.05.25
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
0
1
W
23.02.25
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
1
D
12.10.24
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
0
0
D
06.04.24
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
1
D
31.08.22
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
15.02.21
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
0
1
L
22.08.20
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
L
19.10.19
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
L
11.08.19
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
0
L
31.03.19
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
3
2
W
22.07.18
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
04.02.18
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
1
D
Last matches: Danubio
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
15.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
2
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
26.10.25
Pri
Danubio
CA River Plate
0
1
L
12.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
28.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
2
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
5
1
W
31.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Miramar
2
3
L
10.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
2
1
W
H2H at home: Danubio
30.05.26
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
28.02.26
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
23.02.25
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
1
D
06.04.24
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
1
D
15.02.21
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
0
1
L
31.03.19
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
3
2
W
22.07.18
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
Last matches: Progreso
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
1
3
L
10.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
29.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pri
Progreso
CA River Plate
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
1
2
L
16.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
3
L
01.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
1
2
L
H2H away: Progreso
30.05.26
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
W
28.02.26
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
23.02.25
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
1
D
06.04.24
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
1
D
15.02.21
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
0
1
W
31.03.19
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
3
2
L
22.07.18
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.19
Draw 3.37
Home 1.94
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.90
Draw 2.12
Home 2.64
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.41
Over 1.75 1.52
Over 2.0 1.69
Over 2.25 1.99
Over 2.5 2.28
Over 2.75 2.68
Over 3.5 4.22
Under 1.5 2.93
Under 1.75 2.58
Under 2.0 2.20
Under 2.25 1.85
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 2.75 1.48
Under 3.5 1.23
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 3.40
Home 1.91
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.05
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.30
Home 2.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 3.5 4.33
Over 4.5 10.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 3.5 1.20
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.98
Draw 3.32
Home 1.93
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.70
Draw 1.98
Home 2.51
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.30
Home 2.28
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.06
Over 1.0 1.08
Over 1.25 1.23
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 1.75 1.49
Over 2.0 1.70
Over 2.25 1.94
Over 2.5 2.22
Over 2.75 2.54
Over 3.0 3.58
Over 3.25 3.54
Over 3.5 4.90
Over 3.75 4.92
Over 4.0 13.10
Over 4.25 7.20
Over 4.5 17.50
Over 5.5 26.00
Over 6.5 36.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 0.75 6.53
Under 1.0 9.75
Under 1.25 3.54
Under 1.5 3.09
Under 1.75 2.42
Under 2.0 2.16
Under 2.25 1.80
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 2.75 1.45
Under 3.0 1.30
Under 3.25 1.23
Under 3.5 1.20
Under 3.75 1.12
Under 4.0 1.05
Under 4.25 1.03
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.85
Draw 3.20
Home 1.94
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 2.12
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 2.38
Home 2.35
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.0 1.60
Over 2.5 2.14
Over 3.0 3.15
Over 3.25 3.50
Over 3.5 3.85
Under 1.5 2.85
Under 2.0 2.17
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 3.0 1.30
Under 3.25 1.25
Under 3.5 1.21

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D