Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
96.2%
|
1.94 | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
40%
|
1.73 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
32.7%
|
1.65 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
87.7%
|
1.80 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
3.10 | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
8.50 |
Danubio
Progreso
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Danubio
16 matches
Progreso
17 matches
| Danubio | Statistic | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wins | 2 |
| 6 | Draws | 4 |
| 6 | Losses | 11 |
| 18 | Goals For | 13 |
| 24 | Goals Against | 27 |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.76 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.59 |
| 9 | BTTS Yes | 7 |
| 13 | Over 1.5 | 11 |
| 8 | Over 2.5 | 7 |
| 5 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 3 | Clean Sheets | 1 |
| 5 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 0 | Shots On Goal | 0 |
| 0 | Total Shots | 0 |
| 0 | Corners | 0 |
| 0% | Ball Possession | 0% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Progreso. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Progreso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Danubio expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Progreso in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Progreso having the stronger overall control.
From their first 15 matches, Danubio have collected 18 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 17:21 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Cabrera (4 goals), S. Fernandez (4 goals), M. Ferreira (3 goals), with creative support from M. Jourdan (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
With 10 points from 15 games and a place of 15, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats with a 12:23 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Lopez (3 goals), M. Copelotti (2 goals), D. Sanchez (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Danubio won 2 times, Progreso won 6 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:20 from Danubio's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.
Lineups
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
Albion FC
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
Club Nacional
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
Central Espanol
Danubio
Atletico Torque
Danubio
Cerro Largo
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
Wanderers
Danubio
Juventud
Danubio
Penarol
Danubio
Progreso
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
Boston River
Danubio
Cerro
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
CA River Plate
Danubio
Boston River
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Cerro Largo
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Wanderers
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Penarol
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
Boston River
Progreso
Cerro
Progreso
Albion FC
Progreso
Danubio
Progreso
Club Nacional
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
Central Espanol
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
Albion FC
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
Atletico Torque
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
Juventud
Danubio
Progreso
Danubio
Boston River
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
Danubio
CA River Plate
Danubio
Club Nacional
Danubio
Atletico Torque
Danubio
Cerro
Danubio
Miramar
Danubio
Juventud
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
Cerro
Progreso
Danubio
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
Plaza Colonia
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
CA River Plate
Progreso
Boston River
Progreso
Club Nacional
Progreso
Penarol
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | 9 | 31 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | 8 | 29 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | 10 | 28 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | 7 | 27 |
W
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 5 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | 1 | 24 |
W
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | 6 | 23 |
W
D
W
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | 5 | 22 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 8 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | 2 | 21 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | 2 | 20 |
L
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 10 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 11 |
Danubio
Home
|
15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 |
L
L
W
D
D
|
| 12 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 15 |
Progreso
Away
|
15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
| 16 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 |
L
L
L
D
D
|