05.09.2026 18:00
Jardines Del Hipódromo
Referee: M. De Armas
Danubio
Match Timeline
Penarol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
L. Umpierrez
Penarol
🔄
46'
E. Femia ↔ C. Tizon
Danubio
🔄
46'
J. Trasante ↔ J. Millan
Danubio
55'
M. Arezo
Penarol
56'
M. Arezo
Penarol
🔄
58'
M. Peralta ↔ E. Figueroa
Danubio
🔄
58'
I. Rossi ↔ E. Cabrera
Danubio
60'
L. Umpierrez
Penarol
🔄
61'
M. Lemos ↔ G. Pezzella
Penarol
🔄
61'
E. Remedi ↔ T. Olase
Penarol
🔄
61'
M. Arezo ↔ A. Hernandez
Penarol
🔄
70'
E. Darias ↔ J. Rodriguez
Penarol
🔄
77'
L. Umpierrez ↔ G. Gelini
Penarol
🔄
80'
S. Fernandez ↔ M. Ferreira
Danubio

Danubio vs Penarol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 80%
Odds 1.75
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 2.42
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
80%
1.75
BTTS No
60.3%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
2.42
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.71
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.33
Correct Score 0-3
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Danubio Win 15.4%
Draw 4.5%
Penarol Win 80%
Expected Goals (xG)
Danubio0.89
Penarol1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Danubio Danubio
WWDLW
22 GF / 32 GA
Penarol Penarol
WLDWL
46 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
12
BTTS Yes
17
10
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Danubio Danubio 26 matches
Penarol Penarol 32 matches
Danubio Statistic Penarol
4 Wins 15
12 Draws 8
10 Losses 9
22 Goals For 46
32 Goals Against 30
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
12 BTTS Yes 17
16 Over 1.5 24
10 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 9
12 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 4
0 Total Shots 13.33
0 Corners 4
0% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Penarol's more proactive style and Danubio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Penarol carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 47 points while Danubio sit 15 on 24, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Penarol. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Danubio expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Penarol in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Penarol having the stronger overall control.

Danubio Analysis

Danubio sit 15 with 24 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 12 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 22:31, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Penarol Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 47 points from 24 games, Penarol bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 14 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, with a 37:20 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Danubio won 2 times, Penarol won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:19 from Danubio's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Danubio 4-2-3-1 / Penarol 4-4-2
H2H summary: Danubio wins 2, draws 3, Penarol wins 10

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 17 5 6 46:23 23 55
W W W L D
2 29 15 7 7 44:27 17 52
W L W L D
3 28 14 10 4 35:22 13 52
W L W D W
4 27 15 5 7 47:31 16 50
W W W W W
5 29 14 4 11 43:38 5 46
W D D W W
6 29 12 8 9 36:35 1 44
D D L W L
7 28 11 9 8 37:27 10 42
L W D W W
8 28 10 8 10 30:33 -3 38
D D L L L
9 29 9 8 12 35:39 -4 35
W D D W W
10 29 9 7 13 37:38 -1 34
L L L L L
11 29 8 9 12 28:32 -4 33
L D L D D
12 29 7 11 11 25:33 -8 32
L W D L D
13 29 9 5 15 23:43 -20 32
L W W D L
14 29 8 6 15 28:40 -12 30
L L L D W
15 29 4 14 11 24:38 -14 26
D D L L D
16 29 7 4 18 23:42 -19 25
W L W W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)