WORLD CONMEBOL LIBERTADORES
--.--.---- --:--
Governador Magalhães Pinto
Referee: Yael Falcon Perez, Argentina
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Flamengo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
🟨
30'
G. de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
53'
K. Arroyo · Assist: William Furtado
Cruzeiro
🔄
65'
Bruno Henrique ↔ Pedro
Flamengo
🔄
65'
Wesley ↔ Kenji
Cruzeiro
🟨
66'
Fabricio Bruno
Cruzeiro
🔄
66'
G. de Arrascaeta ↔ Lucas Paqueta
Flamengo
67'
Lucas Paqueta
Flamengo
🟨
69'
Artur Jorge
Cruzeiro
🔄
78'
K. Arroyo ↔ J. Costa
Cruzeiro
🔄
78'
Matheus Henrique ↔ Ze Lucas
Cruzeiro
🔄
84'
Samuel Lino ↔ J. Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
89'
G. Plata ↔ G. Varela
Flamengo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.8%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 39.6%
Draw 14.6%
Flamengo Win 45.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.15
Flamengo1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
41 GF / 37 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
60 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
2
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
17
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
17
4.54
Shots on Goal
5.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 30 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 30 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Flamengo
13 Wins 19
8 Draws 8
9 Losses 3
41 Goals For 60
37 Goals Against 25
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
17 BTTS Yes 15
23 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 7
10 Clean Sheets 13
5 Failed To Score 2
4.54 Shots On Goal 5.81
13.82 Total Shots 15.58
4.86 Corners 4.65
55.4% Ball Possession 56.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Flamengo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Cruzeiro sit 2 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Flamengo look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Flamengo. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro enter this tie with a season profile built on 11 points from 6 matches, placing them 2 in their league. The return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:3 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Matheus Pereira (4 goals), Christian (1 goals), Fagner (1 goals), with creative support from Fagner (2 assists), Kaio Jorge (2 assists), Matheus Pereira (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Flamengo Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Flamengo arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 16 points after 6 matches. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 14:2 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking influence is driven by Bruno Henrique (4 goals), G. de Arrascaeta (2 goals), Lucas Paqueta (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Henrique (2 assists), Ayrton Lucas (2 assists), G. de Arrascaeta (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 1 times, Flamengo won 10 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:22 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 1, draws 4, Flamengo wins 10
Stats
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
Flamengo Flamengo
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
4
2 Corner Kicks 4
11 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 3
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Goal 5
5 Shots off Goal 6
5 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 10
4 Shots outsidebox 5
4 Goalkeeper Saves 0
434 Total passes 507
377 Passes accurate 437
0.53 expected_goals 1.14
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cruzeiro
Formation
Flamengo
Otávio Costa
Otávio Costa
William Furtado
🎯
William Furtado
Fabrício Bruno
Fabrício Bruno
Jonathan Jesus
Jonathan Jesus
Gabriel Rojas
Gabriel Rojas
Matheus Henrique
Matheus Henrique
Gerson
Gerson
Keny Arroyo
Keny Arroyo
Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira
Wesley
Wesley
Kaio Jorge
Kaio Jorge
Agustín Rossi
Agustín Rossi
Emerson Royal
Emerson Royal
Léo Ortiz
Léo Ortiz
Léo Pereira
Léo Pereira
Ayrton Lucas
Ayrton Lucas
Erick Pulgar
Erick Pulgar
Jorginho
Jorginho
Gonzalo Plata
Gonzalo Plata
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
Samuel Lino
Samuel Lino
Bruno Henrique
Bruno Henrique
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
81
Otávio Costa
G
12
William Furtado
🎯 53'
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
🟨 66'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
27
Gabriel Rojas
D
7
Matheus Henrique
↓ 78' 🟨 11'
M
8
Gerson
M
99
Keny Arroyo
⚽ 53' ↓ 78'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
M
20
Wesley
↓ 65'
M
19
Kaio Jorge
F
Substitutes
70
Kaique Kenji
↑ 65'
F
5
Zé Lucas
↑ 78'
M
67
João Costa
↑ 78'
F
51
Vitor Lamounier Rego
G
2
Kauã Moraes
D
43
João Marcelo
D
25
Lucas Villalba
D
11
Marquinhos
F
38
Felipe Morais
M
16
Lucas Silva
M
97
Luciano Rodríguez
F
9
Bruno Rodrigues
F
Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Agustín Rossi
G
22
Emerson Royal
D
3
Léo Ortiz
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
5
Erick Pulgar
M
21
Jorginho
M
19
Gonzalo Plata
↓ 89'
M
10
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
↓ 66' 🟨 30'
M
16
Samuel Lino
↓ 84'
M
27
Bruno Henrique
↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
9
Pedro Guilherme
↑ 65'
F
20
Lucas Paquetá
⚽ 67' ↑ 66'
M
15
Jorge Carrascal
↑ 84'
M
2
Guillermo Varela
↑ 89'
D
42
Andrew
G
49
Dyogo Alves
G
77
Johnny Goes
D
13
Danilo
D
52
Evertton Araujo
M
99
Lorran
M
18
Nicolás de la Cruz
M
8
Saúl Ñíguez
M
Last matches: Cruzeiro
22.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
2
1
W
20.08.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
2
L
16.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
2
1
W
09.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
3
1
W
31.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
1
L
23.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Internacional
2
1
W
12.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
3
L
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Bahia
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
Last matches: Flamengo
22.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
20.08.26
CON
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
16.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Mirassol
5
1
W
09.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
0
W
29.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Internacional
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Olimpia
4
2
W
11.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Benfica
2
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Lausanne
2
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
River Plate
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Coritiba
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
3
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Palmeiras
0
3
L
21.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Gremio
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
30.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
4
0
W
H2H: Cruzeiro vs Flamengo
20.08.26
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
1
L
13.08.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
1
D
12.03.26
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
L
02.10.25
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
04.05.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
2
1
W
07.11.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
1
L
30.06.24
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
1
L
19.10.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
27.05.23
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
21.09.19
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
2
L
28.04.19
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
3
1
L
25.11.18
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
12.08.18
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
0
L
08.11.17
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
L
28.09.17
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
0
D
Last matches: Cruzeiro
22.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
2
1
W
09.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
3
1
W
26.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
1
L
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Santos
0
0
D
15.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
3
3
D
25.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
1
1
D
06.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
2
L
H2H at home: Cruzeiro
13.08.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
1
D
04.05.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
2
1
W
07.11.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
1
L
19.10.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
21.09.19
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
2
L
25.11.18
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
28.09.17
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
0
D
Last matches: Flamengo
22.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
16.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Mirassol
5
1
W
29.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Internacional
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Benfica
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Gremio
1
0
W
30.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
4
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Fluminense
2
1
W
09.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
2
0
W
03.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Corinthians
1
1
D
14.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Botafogo
3
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
1
W
29.01.26
Ser
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
H2H away: Flamengo
13.08.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
1
D
04.05.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
2
1
L
07.11.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
1
W
19.10.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
W
21.09.19
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
2
W
25.11.18
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
W
28.09.17
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
0
D

Standings

Group D
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 8:4 4 13
W W D W W
2 6 3 2 1 8:3 5 11
W D D W L
3 6 2 1 3 6:5 1 7
L D L L W
4 6 1 0 5 2:12 -10 3
L L W L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals