BRAZIL SERIE B
23.08.2026 21:30
Estádio Heriberto Hülse
Referee: A. Gomes Stefano
Criciuma
Match Timeline
Fortaleza EC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Guilherme Lobo
Criciuma
🟨
33'
Rodrigo Fagundes
Criciuma
43'
Pedro Henrique · Assist: Luiz Fernando
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
Ruan Carvalho ↔ Hiago Alves
Criciuma
🟨
50'
Rodrigo Santos
Fortaleza EC
🔄
62'
Gui Lobo ↔ Jhonata Robert
Criciuma
🔄
62'
Caue Santos ↔ Nicolas
Criciuma
🔄
73'
Fellipe Mateus ↔ Yuri Tanque
Criciuma
🔄
77'
Pedro Henrique ↔ Paulo Baya
Fortaleza EC
🔄
78'
Luiz Fernando ↔ Luan Freitas
Fortaleza EC
🔄
80'
Mauricio Junior ↔ Ryan
Fortaleza EC
🔄
85'
Eduardo ↔ Romarinho
Criciuma
87'
Paulo Baya · Assist: Lucas Sasha
Fortaleza EC
🔄
90+1'
J. B. Miritello ↔ Lucas Crispim
Fortaleza EC
🔄
90'
Lucas Sasha ↔ Lucas Emanoel
Fortaleza EC

Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.3%
-
BTTS No
76.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Criciuma Win 76.3%
Draw 5.2%
Fortaleza EC Win 18.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Criciuma1.02
Fortaleza EC0.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Criciuma Criciuma
WWDLW
25 GF / 15 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
25 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.09
0.65
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
10
BTTS Yes
9
4
Over 2.5
9
3.74
Shots on Goal
4.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Criciuma Criciuma 23 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 23 matches
Criciuma Statistic Fortaleza EC
12 Wins 10
8 Draws 7
3 Losses 6
25 Goals For 25
15 Goals Against 21
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
0.65 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
10 BTTS Yes 9
12 Over 1.5 13
4 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 10
4 Failed To Score 8
3.74 Shots On Goal 4.09
13.09 Total Shots 13.78
6.3 Corners 5.52
50.9% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fortaleza EC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Criciuma expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Fortaleza EC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Criciuma Analysis

Criciuma approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 43 points after 22 outings. The return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 24:14, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Fellipe Mateus (4 goals), Rómulo Otero (2 goals), Marcelo Hermes (2 goals), with creative support from Rómulo Otero (2 assists), Romarinho (2 assists), Marcelo Hermes (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 36 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, while the 24:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Vitinho (4 goals), Juan Miritello (3 goals), Maílton (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), Maurício Júnior (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Criciuma won 1 times, Fortaleza EC won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:9 from Criciuma's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Criciuma 3-4-3 / Fortaleza EC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Criciuma wins 1, draws 1, Fortaleza EC wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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