28.08.2026 20:30
Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra
Referee: J. Alarcon
Comerciantes Unidos
Match Timeline
FC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
M. Rasmussen · Assist: C. A. Correa Flores
FC Cajamarca
10'
M. Arrasco · Assist: A. J. Posito Olazabal
FC Cajamarca
VAR
12'
Mauricio Arrasco
FC Cajamarca
VAR
22'
Flavio Alcedo
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
45+6'
Carlos Correa
FC Cajamarca
🔄
46'
J. Herrera ↔ T. Salinas
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
46'
W. Ayovi ↔ Jhon Sanchez
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
46'
A. Rodriguez ↔ J. Olivares
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
49'
Flavio Alcedo
Comerciantes Unidos
52'
J. Olivares
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
58'
E. M. Perez Azambuya ↔ M. Sen
Comerciantes Unidos
59'
R. Vilca
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
62'
Jean Carlo Olivares
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
67'
B. Palacios ↔ A. Gutierrez
FC Cajamarca
🔄
67'
C. A. Correa Flores ↔ P. Goyoneche
FC Cajamarca
🔄
73'
M. Rasmussen ↔ C. Gomez
FC Cajamarca
🟨
78'
Mauricio Arrasco
FC Cajamarca
🔄
84'
↔ M. P. Carpio Ferro
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
85'
P. Cejas ↔ J. Lugo
FC Cajamarca
89'
M. Arrasco · Assist: S. Enciso
FC Cajamarca

Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.4%
Odds 1.60
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.4%
1.60
BTTS Yes
86%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.85
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
73.5%
1.06
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.38
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Comerciantes Unidos Win 50.4%
Draw 14.5%
FC Cajamarca Win 35%
Expected Goals (xG)
Comerciantes Unidos1.46
FC Cajamarca1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WWDLW
31 GF / 32 GA
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WLDWL
35 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.79
15
BTTS Yes
17
11
Over 2.5
15
4.57
Shots on Goal
3.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 25 matches
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 24 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Statistic FC Cajamarca
7 Wins 6
9 Draws 6
9 Losses 12
31 Goals For 35
32 Goals Against 43
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.79
15 BTTS Yes 17
16 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 15
9 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 0
7 Failed To Score 7
4.57 Shots On Goal 3.48
13.39 Total Shots 10.22
3.57 Corners 2.83
47% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Comerciantes Unidos expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Cajamarca in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC Cajamarca. FC Cajamarca arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

Comerciantes Unidos are currently 11 in the standings with 26 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, while the 27:29 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Matías Sen (5 goals), Josuee Herrera (2 goals), Juan Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Josuee Herrera (3 assists), Rodrigo Vilca (3 assists), Mathías Carpio (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

With 21 points from 22 games and a place of 16, FC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 32:39 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Hernán Barcos (4 goals), Brandon Palacios (4 goals), Mauricio Arrasco (3 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Enciso (3 assists), Hernán Barcos (2 assists), Ricardo Lagos (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1 / FC Cajamarca 4-4-2

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 27 14 6 7 39:24 15 48
W L W W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 27 9 5 13 26:31 -5 32
L W L W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 27 7 9 11 35:38 -3 30
L L D L W
15 27 7 6 14 41:52 -11 27
L W L W L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 26 5 7 14 27:41 -14 22
L L L L D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2