PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.4%
Odds 1.60
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.4%
1.60
BTTS Yes
86%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.85
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
73.5%
1.06
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.38
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Comerciantes Unidos Win 50.4%
Draw 14.5%
FC Cajamarca Win 35%
Expected Goals (xG)
Comerciantes Unidos1.46
FC Cajamarca1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WWDLW
31 GF / 32 GA
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WLDWL
35 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.79
15
BTTS Yes
17
11
Over 2.5
15
4.57
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 25 matches
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 24 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Statistic FC Cajamarca
7 Wins 6
9 Draws 6
9 Losses 12
31 Goals For 35
32 Goals Against 43
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.79
15 BTTS Yes 17
16 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 15
9 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 0
7 Failed To Score 7
4.57 Shots On Goal 3.43
13.39 Total Shots 10.04
3.57 Corners 2.83
47% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Comerciantes Unidos expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Cajamarca in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC Cajamarca. FC Cajamarca arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

Comerciantes Unidos are currently 11 in the standings with 26 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, while the 27:29 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Matías Sen (5 goals), Josuee Herrera (2 goals), Juan Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Josuee Herrera (3 assists), Rodrigo Vilca (3 assists), Mathías Carpio (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

With 21 points from 22 games and a place of 16, FC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 32:39 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Hernán Barcos (4 goals), Brandon Palacios (4 goals), Mauricio Arrasco (3 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Enciso (3 assists), Hernán Barcos (2 assists), Ricardo Lagos (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Comerciantes Unidos won 1 times, FC Cajamarca won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:3 from Comerciantes Unidos's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 7 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1 / FC Cajamarca 4-4-2
H2H summary: Comerciantes Unidos wins 1, draws 0, FC Cajamarca wins 0
Last matches: Comerciantes Unidos
22.08.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
UTC Cajamarca
3
1
W
14.08.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
07.08.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Cusco
3
1
W
31.07.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2
3
L
26.07.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Alianza Lima
2
2
D
18.07.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
UCV Moquegua
2
2
D
30.05.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Boys
0
1
L
25.05.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
ADT
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
02.05.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Cienciano
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Sporting Cristal
1
0
W
22.04.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Alianza Atletico
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Juan Pablo II College
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Universitario
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
FC Cajamarca
4
3
W
07.03.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
UTC Cajamarca
1
2
L
01.03.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Atletico Grau
3
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Cusco
1
3
L
Last matches: FC Cajamarca
21.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
1
3
L
16.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
2
3
L
09.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
4
2
W
01.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
27.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
17.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
2
2
D
31.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cusco
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cienciano
0
3
L
13.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
3
4
L
06.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
H2H: Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca
13.03.26
H2H
FC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
3
4
W
Last matches: Comerciantes Unidos
07.08.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Cusco
3
1
W
26.07.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Alianza Lima
2
2
D
25.05.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
10.05.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Sporting Cristal
1
0
W
22.04.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Alianza Atletico
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Universitario
0
0
D
07.03.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
UTC Cajamarca
1
2
L
01.03.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Atletico Grau
3
1
W
15.02.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
1
D
02.02.26
Pri
Comerciantes Unidos
UCV Moquegua
1
0
W
21.01.26
Fri
Comerciantes Unidos
UTC Cajamarca
0
1
L
Last matches: FC Cajamarca
09.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
4
2
W
27.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
08.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cusco
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cienciano
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
1
L
15.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
31.01.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
3
3
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.41
Draw 3.72
Home 1.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.24
Draw 2.30
Home 2.03
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.75 1.31
Over 2.0 1.39
Over 2.25 1.62
Over 2.5 1.85
Over 2.75 2.06
Over 3.0 2.41
Over 3.25 2.71
Under 1.75 3.26
Under 2.0 2.85
Under 2.25 2.26
Under 2.5 1.95
Under 2.75 1.74
Under 3.0 1.53
Under 3.25 1.43
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.25
Draw 3.75
Home 1.53
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 2.30
Home 2.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.60
Home 1.91
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.5 1.85
Over 3.5 3.00
Over 4.5 6.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 11.00
Under 1.5 3.75
Under 2.5 1.95
Under 3.5 1.36
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.58
Draw 3.72
Home 1.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.08
Draw 2.13
Home 2.15
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.19
Draw 2.62
Home 1.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.14
Over 1.5 1.24
Over 1.75 1.30
Over 2.0 1.38
Over 2.25 1.61
Over 2.5 1.84
Over 2.75 2.06
Over 3.0 2.36
Over 3.25 2.66
Over 3.5 2.88
Over 3.75 3.51
Over 4.0 4.60
Over 4.25 4.95
Over 4.5 5.25
Over 5.0 9.00
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 0.75 8.00
Under 1.0 7.50
Under 1.25 4.57
Under 1.5 3.34
Under 1.75 3.08
Under 2.0 2.69
Under 2.25 2.17
Under 2.5 1.92
Under 2.75 1.73
Under 3.0 1.49
Under 3.25 1.41
Under 3.5 1.32
Under 3.75 1.23
Under 4.0 1.13
Under 4.25 1.11
Under 4.5 1.09
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 3.60
Home 1.65
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.10
Draw 2.28
Home 2.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.60
Draw 2.55
Home 2.02
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 2.0 1.47
Over 2.25 1.70
Over 2.5 1.93
Over 2.75 2.20
Over 3.0 2.70
Over 3.5 3.30
Over 4.5 6.00
Under 1.5 3.15
Under 2.0 2.45
Under 2.25 1.98
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 2.75 1.57
Under 3.0 1.38
Under 3.5 1.27
Under 4.5 1.08