28.08.2026 21:30
Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia
Referee: G. Juliadoza
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Match Timeline
Nacional Asuncion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
1'
Alexis Doldán
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🟨
8'
Rodrigo Melgarejo
Nacional Asuncion
45'
I. Valdez · Assist: H. A. Benitez
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
63'
J. Duarte ↔ G. Gerzel
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
63'
J. Barrios ↔ A. Alvarez
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
64'
J. Salcedo ↔ F. Aragon
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
68'
I. Valdez ↔ I. Bailone
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
68'
F. Jara ↔ R. Prieto
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
80'
M. Ferreira ↔ I. Torres
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
80'
L. Meza ↔ J. F. Santacruz Rodas
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
80'
H. A. Benitez ↔ D. J. Colman Escobar
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
87'
K. Ferreira Gonzalez ↔ E. Ortiz
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
90'
O. Gaona Lugo ↔ G. Benitez
Nacional Asuncion
90'
I. Bailone · Assist: O. Gaona Lugo
Nacional Asuncion
90'
G. Benitez · Assist: I. Bailone
Nacional Asuncion

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.7%
Odds 1.74
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds 2.32
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.7%
1.74
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
2.32
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
1.50
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.33
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Win 23.6%
Draw 20.7%
Nacional Asuncion Win 55.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo0.71
Nacional Asuncion1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
WWDLW
15 GF / 50 GA
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
WLDWL
39 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.54
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.79
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
10
BTTS Yes
18
9
Over 2.5
11
1.39
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo 28 matches
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 28 matches
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Statistic Nacional Asuncion
3 Wins 12
7 Draws 12
18 Losses 4
15 Goals For 39
50 Goals Against 27
0.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.79 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
10 BTTS Yes 18
17 Over 1.5 22
9 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 9
15 Failed To Score 4
1.39 Shots On Goal 3.89
5.75 Total Shots 11.61
2.25 Corners 4.57
22.8% Ball Possession 49.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Nacional Asuncion's more proactive style and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nacional Asuncion. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Nacional Asuncion carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 6 points while Club Sp. San Lorenzo sit 12 on 1, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nacional Asuncion having the stronger overall control. Club Sp. San Lorenzo have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Analysis

With 1 points from 5 games and a place of 12, Club Sp. San Lorenzo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 1:8 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nacional Asuncion Analysis

From their first 5 matches, Nacional Asuncion have collected 6 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, while the 6:5 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Hugo Adrián Benítez (3 goals), Josué Colmán (1 goals), Roque Santa Cruz (1 goals), with creative support from Orlando Gaona Lugo (3 assists), Thomas Gutiérrez (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Club Sp. San Lorenzo won 1 times, Nacional Asuncion won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:15 from Club Sp. San Lorenzo's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.3%)
Predicted formations: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-4-2 / Nacional Asuncion 4-4-2
H2H summary: Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins 1, draws 3, Nacional Asuncion wins 5

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 1 2 18:11 7 22
W W L D W
2 10 6 3 1 12:8 4 21
L W D W D
3 10 6 1 3 17:9 8 19
W W D W W
4 10 5 2 3 18:9 9 17
W L W L D
5 10 4 4 2 12:11 1 16
W W L D W
6 9 4 3 2 14:6 8 15
L W W W D
7 10 4 2 4 13:10 3 14
D W W D L
8 10 3 5 2 11:9 2 14
D W D D D
9 10 3 1 6 11:20 -9 10
L L D W L
10 9 2 2 5 11:19 -8 8
L W L D W
11 10 2 1 7 13:23 -10 7
L L L L L
12 10 0 1 9 3:18 -15 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)