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12.10.2026 22:20
Estádio Arsenio Erico
Referee: Mario Alberto Diaz De Vivar

Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.2%
Odds 1.81
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.2%
1.81 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
1.88 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
19.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Nacional Asuncion Win 75.2%
Draw 4.6%
Deportivo Recoleta Win 20.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional Asuncion1.54
Deportivo Recoleta1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
WWDLW
51 GF / 30 GA
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta
WLDWL
49 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.4
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.66
20
BTTS Yes
25
14
Over 2.5
23
4.06
Shots on Goal
3.49

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 35 matches
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 35 matches
Nacional Asuncion Statistic Deportivo Recoleta
16 Wins 10
14 Draws 6
5 Losses 19
51 Goals For 49
30 Goals Against 58
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.66
20 BTTS Yes 25
27 Over 1.5 29
14 Over 2.5 23
4 Over 3.5 13
13 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 6
4.06 Shots On Goal 3.49
11.69 Total Shots 10.54
4.63 Corners 4
48.5% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Nacional Asuncion's more proactive style and Deportivo Recoleta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Recoleta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nacional Asuncion expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Deportivo Recoleta in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Recoleta having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Nacional Asuncion arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 22 points compared to Deportivo Recoleta in 11 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Deportivo Recoleta arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Nacional Asuncion Analysis

Nacional Asuncion come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 22 points after 12 matches. The return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 19:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Benítez (4 goals), I. Valdez (4 goals), L. Meza (2 goals), with creative support from H. Benítez (3 assists), O. Gaona (3 assists), J. Colmán (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Recoleta Analysis

Deportivo Recoleta sit 11 with 8 points after 13 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats with a 14:26 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on A. González (2 goals), P. Charpentier (2 goals), H. López (2 goals), with creative support from W. Báez (2 assists), A. González (1 assists), P. Charpentier (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Nacional Asuncion won 2 times, Deportivo Recoleta won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:9 from Nacional Asuncion's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Nacional Asuncion 4-1-4-1 / Deportivo Recoleta 4-4-2
H2H summary: Nacional Asuncion wins 2, draws 4, Deportivo Recoleta wins 2

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 8 3 3 22:10 12 27
D D W W W
2 13 8 2 3 21:14 7 26
W L D W W
3 13 7 4 2 16:13 3 25
W D L L W
4 14 7 3 4 24:14 10 24
D W W L W
5 13 6 5 2 20:8 12 23
D D W W L
6 13 5 6 2 14:10 4 21
D W W D W
7 14 6 2 6 18:14 4 20
W L L W D
8 13 4 6 3 15:15 0 18
L D D W W
9 14 4 1 9 14:27 -13 13
L L L W L
10 14 3 4 7 15:24 -9 13
D W D L L
11 13 2 2 9 14:26 -12 8
L D L L L
12 14 0 4 10 5:23 -18 4
D D D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)