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MEXICO › LIGA MX
26.10.2026 01:00
Estadio La Corregidora

Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
66.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Club Queretaro Win 39.7%
Draw 27.2%
Cruz Azul Win 33.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Queretaro1.46
Cruz Azul1.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Queretaro Club Queretaro
WWDLW
20 GF / 15 GA
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul
WLDWL
47 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
2.14
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
6
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
16
3.91
Shots on Goal
7.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Queretaro Club Queretaro 14 matches
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 22 matches
Club Queretaro Statistic Cruz Azul
8 Wins 10
3 Draws 6
3 Losses 6
20 Goals For 47
15 Goals Against 33
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 2.14
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
6 BTTS Yes 13
10 Over 1.5 19
6 Over 2.5 16
4 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 4
3.91 Shots On Goal 7.17
13.45 Total Shots 19.83
4.45 Corners 6.33
39.5% Ball Possession 58.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cruz Azul. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Queretaro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cruz Azul in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cruz Azul having the stronger overall control.

Club Queretaro Analysis

Club Queretaro are currently 6 in the standings with 20 points from 11 matches. The record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 15:13 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Homenchenko (3 goals), A. Ávila (3 goals), M. Coronel (2 goals), with creative support from Iker Benito (2 assists), E. Giménez (2 assists), S. Homenchenko (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Cruz Azul Analysis

Cruz Azul come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 20 points from 12 matches. The record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 27:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Fernández (4 goals), A. Palavecino (3 goals), J. Paradela (2 goals), with creative support from J. Paradela (4 assists), A. Montaño (3 assists), C. Rodríguez (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Club Queretaro won 3 times, Cruz Azul won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:24 from Club Queretaro's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.79 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (72.8%)
Predicted formations: Club Queretaro 4-2-3-1 / Cruz Azul 5-3-2
H2H summary: Club Queretaro wins 3, draws 3, Cruz Azul wins 8

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 27:14 13 24
W D W D L
2 12 6 3 3 26:16 10 21
D L D L W
3 12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
4 12 5 5 2 19:12 7 20
D D L D W
5 12 6 2 4 27:21 6 20
W D D L W
6 11 6 2 3 15:13 2 20
L W W D W
7 12 5 3 4 18:17 1 18
L D W D W
8 11 5 2 4 19:16 3 17
W D L W D
9 12 5 1 6 17:16 1 16
W W W W W
10 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
11 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
12 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
13 12 3 5 4 14:16 -2 14
D W W L D
14 12 3 4 5 19:16 3 13
L D L D W
15 12 3 4 5 16:21 -5 13
D L W W L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 12 1 1 10 8:31 -23 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)