30.08.2026 19:00
Estadio General Pablo Rojas
Referee: B. Romero
Cerro Porteno
Match Timeline
Libertad Asuncion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
I. Aliseda · Assist: A. E. Almendra
Cerro Porteno
🟨
13'
Ariel Gamarra
Cerro Porteno
🔄
25'
A. E. Almendra ↔ C. Chena
Cerro Porteno
45'
G. Aguilar
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
46'
R. Fernandez ↔ M. Roffo
Cerro Porteno
🔄
46'
J. Iturbe ↔ L. Merolla
Cerro Porteno
🔄
62'
P. Vegetti ↔ J. Torres
Cerro Porteno
🔄
69'
E. Vera ↔ A. Fretes
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
77'
F. Carrizo ↔ C. Martinez
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
77'
L. Sanabria ↔ I. Ramirez
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
79'
A. G. Benitez ↔ M. Chaparro
Cerro Porteno
87'
Jonatan Torres
Cerro Porteno
🔄
89'
R. Villalba ↔ L. Nequecaur
Libertad Asuncion
🟨
90+2'
Cristhian Martínez
Libertad Asuncion

Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.20
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91%
1.33
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.20
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.34
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Cerro Porteno Win 49.6%
Draw 9%
Libertad Asuncion Win 41.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro Porteno1.27
Libertad Asuncion1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno
WWDLW
44 GF / 30 GA
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion
WLDWL
49 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.44
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
13
BTTS Yes
16
11
Over 2.5
17
4.43
Shots on Goal
4.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 35 matches
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 34 matches
Cerro Porteno Statistic Libertad Asuncion
17 Wins 14
7 Draws 4
11 Losses 16
44 Goals For 49
30 Goals Against 44
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
13 BTTS Yes 16
23 Over 1.5 21
11 Over 2.5 17
4 Over 3.5 10
16 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 10
4.43 Shots On Goal 4.41
12.23 Total Shots 12.47
4.43 Corners 4.35
53.1% Ball Possession 52.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro Porteno expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Libertad Asuncion in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Libertad Asuncion having the stronger overall control. Libertad Asuncion carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 12 points while Cerro Porteno sit 7 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Libertad Asuncion look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Libertad Asuncion.

Cerro Porteno Analysis

With 6 points from 5 games and a place of 7, Cerro Porteno still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 6:5 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Jorge Morel (2 goals), Pablo Vegetti (1 goals), Iván Ramírez (1 goals), with creative support from Cecilio Domínguez (1 assists), Cesar Bobadilla (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Libertad Asuncion Analysis

Libertad Asuncion approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 12 points after 5 outings. The return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 10:5, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Ivan Ramirez (1 goals), Alan Benítez (1 goals), Matías Espinoza (1 goals), with creative support from Ivan Ramirez (2 assists), Álvaro Campuzano (2 assists), Alan Benítez (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Porteno won 4 times, Libertad Asuncion won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:21 from Cerro Porteno's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91%)
Predicted formations: Cerro Porteno 5-3-2 / Libertad Asuncion 4-4-2
H2H summary: Cerro Porteno wins 4, draws 7, Libertad Asuncion wins 4

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 1 2 18:11 7 22
W W L D W
2 10 6 3 1 12:8 4 21
L W D W D
3 10 6 1 3 17:9 8 19
W W D W W
4 10 5 3 2 15:6 9 18
W L W W W
5 10 5 2 3 18:9 9 17
W L W L D
6 10 4 4 2 12:11 1 16
W W L D W
7 10 4 2 4 13:10 3 14
D W W D L
8 10 3 5 2 11:9 2 14
D W D D D
9 10 3 1 6 11:20 -9 10
L L D W L
10 10 2 2 6 11:20 -9 8
L L W L D
11 10 2 1 7 13:23 -10 7
L L L L L
12 10 0 1 9 3:18 -15 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)