30.08.2026 22:00
Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Referee: Jose Burgos, Uruguay
Cerro Largo
Match Timeline
Liverpool Montevideo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
41'
Alexander Hernandez
Cerro Largo
43'
R. Bentancourt
Liverpool Montevideo
🟨
48'
Axel Pandiani
Cerro Largo
52'
A. Pandiani
Cerro Largo
🔄
61'
G. Viera ↔ A. de Luca
Cerro Largo
🔄
64'
R. Haller ↔ D. Romero
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
64'
R. Machado ↔ R. M. Degregorio
Liverpool Montevideo
🟨
70'
Santiago Marcel
Cerro Largo
🔄
78'
D. Daguerre ↔ A. Prado
Cerro Largo
🔄
78'
A. Pandiani ↔ B. Lozano
Cerro Largo
🔄
85'
K. Lewis ↔ E. Olivera
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
87'
M. Garcia ↔ N. Ramos
Cerro Largo
🔄
87'
S. Assis ↔ A. Segovia
Cerro Largo
🔄
89'
N. Garayalde ↔ S. Milano
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
89'
F. Martinez ↔ D. Zabala
Liverpool Montevideo

Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 48.3%
Odds 2.23
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.32
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
48.3%
2.23
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.32
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.96
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Cerro Largo Win 36.7%
Draw 15%
Liverpool Montevideo Win 48.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro Largo1
Liverpool Montevideo1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WWDLW
26 GF / 27 GA
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo
WLDWL
35 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
10
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 25 matches
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 27 matches
Cerro Largo Statistic Liverpool Montevideo
8 Wins 10
7 Draws 9
10 Losses 8
26 Goals For 35
27 Goals Against 25
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
10 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 17
8 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 13
9 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 3.5
0 Total Shots 11.5
0 Corners 4
0% Ball Possession 56%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Liverpool Montevideo's more proactive style and Cerro Largo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Liverpool Montevideo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro Largo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Liverpool Montevideo in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Liverpool Montevideo having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Liverpool Montevideo look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Cerro Largo Analysis

Cerro Largo sit 10 with 31 points after 25 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, while the 26:27 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Liverpool Montevideo Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 38 points from 25 games, Liverpool Montevideo bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 10 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, with a 34:23 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Largo won 4 times, Liverpool Montevideo won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:19 from Cerro Largo's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)
Predicted formations: Cerro Largo 4-3-3 / Liverpool Montevideo 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Cerro Largo wins 4, draws 2, Liverpool Montevideo wins 9

Standings

Primera: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 5 0 0 14:4 10 15
W W W W W
2 6 4 1 1 12:4 8 13
L W D W W
3 6 4 1 1 8:7 1 13
W W D L W
4 6 3 2 1 8:5 3 11
W L W D W
5 5 3 1 1 9:3 6 9
W W L D W
6 6 2 3 1 7:5 2 9
D D W W L
7 6 2 2 2 6:5 1 8
L W L D W
8 6 2 2 2 8:8 0 8
L L D W D
9 6 2 2 2 6:7 -1 8
D D W W L
10 6 2 2 2 7:9 -2 8
D L W L D
11 6 2 0 4 3:7 -4 6
L W W L L
12 6 0 5 1 5:6 -1 5
D L D D D
13 6 1 2 3 3:7 -4 5
D D L L L
14 6 1 2 3 4:10 -6 5
W D L D L
15 6 0 3 3 1:7 -6 3
D L L D D
16 6 0 0 6 4:11 -7 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)