BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Presidente Vargas
Referee: Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro, Brazil
Ceara
Match Timeline
Londrina
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
2'
William Pottker
Londrina
4'
Joao Vitor
Londrina
🟨
32'
Yago Lincoln
Londrina
40'
Gabriel Rocha
Ceara
🟨
45+2'
João Tavares
Londrina
🔄
46'
Savio ↔ Sanchez
Ceara
🔄
46'
Joao Tavares ↔ Guilherme Dantas
Londrina
🔄
51'
Vitinho Mota ↔ Rai Nascimento
Londrina
🔄
58'
Richardson ↔ Lucas Mugni
Ceara
🔄
58'
Lucca ↔ R. Lopez
Ceara
62'
Luiz Otavio · Assist: Lucas Mugni
Ceara
🟨
67'
Lucas Mugni
Ceara
🔄
67'
Heron ↔ Kevyn
Londrina
🔄
68'
Pablo Dyego ↔ Gilberto
Londrina
🔄
79'
Julio Cesar ↔ Luiz Otavio
Ceara
🔄
83'
Joao Vitor ↔ Chumbinho
Londrina
🔄
86'
Melk ↔ Caio
Ceara

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.5%
Odds 1.76
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.5%
1.76
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.03
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.13
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 63.5%
Draw 13.9%
Londrina Win 22.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara1.19
Londrina1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
23 GF / 29 GA
Londrina Londrina
WLDWL
28 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
11
BTTS Yes
12
7
Over 2.5
14
4.17
Shots on Goal
3.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 23 matches
Londrina Londrina 23 matches
Ceara Statistic Londrina
6 Wins 5
7 Draws 6
10 Losses 12
23 Goals For 28
29 Goals Against 34
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
11 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 16
7 Over 2.5 14
3 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 9
4.17 Shots On Goal 3.65
13.52 Total Shots 13.04
5.48 Corners 5.43
51.3% Ball Possession 45.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ceara expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Londrina in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Londrina having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Londrina. Londrina arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Ceara Analysis

With 25 points from 21 games and a place of 16, Ceara still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 22:25, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Melk (4 goals), Júlio César (2 goals), Lucas Lima (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), Júlio César (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Londrina Analysis

Londrina approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 20 points from 22 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 28:34, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Bruno Santos (4 goals), Iago Teles (2 goals), Paulinho Moccelin (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Santos (3 assists), João Vitor (2 assists), Iago Teles (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 6 times, Londrina won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:8 from Ceara's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.56 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 4-2-3-1 / Londrina 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 6, draws 2, Londrina wins 1
Stats
Ceara Ceara
Londrina Londrina
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
5
8 Corner Kicks 1
18 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 3
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Goal 4
4 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 5
5 Shots insidebox 4
8 Shots outsidebox 8
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
362 Total passes 398
291 Passes accurate 311
0.65 expected_goals 1.24
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Ceara
Formation
Londrina
Matheus Nogueira
Matheus Nogueira
Julio Cesar
Julio Cesar
Luiz Otavio
Luiz Otavio
Gabriel Rocha
Gabriel Rocha
Savio
Savio
Richardson
Richardson
Joao Gabriel
Joao Gabriel
Enzo Lodovico
Enzo Lodovico
Melk
Melk
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
Lucca
Lucca
Mauricio Kozlinski
Mauricio Kozlinski
Kaue Leonardo
Kaue Leonardo
Gabriel Lacerda
Gabriel Lacerda
Yago Lincoln
Yago Lincoln
Heron
Heron
Lucas Marques
Lucas Marques
Vitinho Mota
Vitinho Mota
Joao Tavares
Joao Tavares
Joao Vitor
Joao Vitor
Pablo Dyego
Pablo Dyego
Willian Pottker
Willian Pottker
Ceara 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Matheus Nogueira
G
18
Julio Cesar
↓ 79'
D
4
Luiz Otavio
⚽ 62'
D
71
Gabriel Rocha
⚽ 40'
D
6
Savio
↓ 46'
D
26
Richardson
↓ 58'
M
81
Joao Gabriel
M
60
Enzo Lodovico
M
40
Melk
↓ 86'
M
20
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
M
99
Lucca
↓ 58'
F
Substitutes
41
Gustavo Martins
G
2
R. Ramos
12
Sanchez
↑ 46'
D
45
Vini Uchella
M
13
Luiz Otavio
↑ 79'
D
86
Aloisio
D
11
Lucas Mugni
🎯 62' ↑ 58' 🟨 67'
M
29
Vina
M
88
Caio
↑ 86'
M
21
Giovanni Pavani
M
77
Lenny Lobato
F
7
R. Lopez
↑ 58'
F
Londrina 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
30
Mauricio Kozlinski
G
75
Kaue Leonardo
D
15
Gabriel Lacerda
D
3
Yago Lincoln
🟨 32'
D
34
Heron
↓ 67'
D
8
Lucas Marques
M
7
Vitinho Mota
↓ 51'
M
32
Joao Tavares
↓ 46' 🟨 45+2'
M
20
Joao Vitor
⚽ 4' ↓ 83'
M
11
Pablo Dyego
↓ 68'
M
23
Willian Pottker
F
Substitutes
1
Luan Ribeiro
G
33
Kevyn
↑ 67'
D
44
Caio Rodrigues
D
4
Wallace
D
2
Nino Paraiba
D
5
Tarik
D
96
Thalis
M
77
Guilherme Dantas
↑ 46'
55
Chumbinho
↑ 83'
9
Gilberto
↑ 68'
F
28
Rai Nascimento
↑ 51'
F
Last matches: Ceara
19.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
15.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
3
L
07.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
4
3
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
Last matches: Londrina
18.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
14.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Sport Recife
1
2
L
10.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Goias
0
1
L
26.07.26
Ser
Londrina
Novorizontino
1
4
L
23.07.26
Ser
Londrina
Nautico Recife
1
2
L
18.07.26
Ser
Londrina
Botafogo SP
0
0
D
13.07.26
Ser
Londrina
America Mineiro
1
1
D
04.07.26
Ser
Londrina
CRB
5
0
W
25.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Cuiaba
2
2
D
20.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Athletic Club
2
0
W
16.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Avai
3
2
W
06.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Criciuma
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Vila Nova
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Fortaleza EC
0
3
L
18.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Ponte Preta
4
1
W
12.05.26
Ser
Londrina
São Bernardo
1
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Operario-PR
0
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Londrina
Juventude
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Londrina
Ceara
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
Londrina
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
H2H: Ceara vs Londrina
22.08.26
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
2
1
W
19.04.26
H2H
Londrina
Ceara
0
0
D
07.09.23
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
3
1
W
24.05.23
H2H
Londrina
Ceara
1
3
W
21.02.18
H2H
Londrina
Ceara
1
2
W
09.09.17
H2H
Londrina
Ceara
3
2
L
03.06.17
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
1
0
W
17.09.16
H2H
Londrina
Ceara
1
1
D
08.06.16
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
1
0
W
Last matches: Ceara
15.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
3
L
07.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ceara
22.08.26
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
2
1
W
07.09.23
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
3
1
W
03.06.17
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
1
0
W
08.06.16
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
1
0
W
Last matches: Londrina
14.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Sport Recife
1
2
L
10.08.26
Ser
Londrina
Goias
0
1
L
23.07.26
Ser
Londrina
Nautico Recife
1
2
L
13.07.26
Ser
Londrina
America Mineiro
1
1
D
25.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Cuiaba
2
2
D
06.06.26
Ser
Londrina
Criciuma
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Fortaleza EC
0
3
L
18.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Ponte Preta
4
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Londrina
Operario-PR
0
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Londrina
Juventude
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Londrina
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Londrina
Novorizontino
3
1
W
H2H away: Londrina
22.08.26
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
2
1
L
07.09.23
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
3
1
L
03.06.17
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
1
0
L
08.06.16
H2H
Ceara
Londrina
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.72
Draw 3.57
Home 1.76
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.25
Draw 2.24
Home 2.35
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.53
Over 2.25 1.78
Over 2.5 2.03
Over 2.75 2.33
Over 3.0 2.87
Over 3.5 3.55
Under 1.5 3.26
Under 1.75 2.89
Under 2.0 2.51
Under 2.25 2.04
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 2.75 1.61
Under 3.0 1.41
Under 3.5 1.28
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 3.40
Home 1.73
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.20
Home 2.38
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.40
Home 2.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.49
Draw 3.50
Home 1.77
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.24
Draw 2.09
Home 2.32
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.58
Draw 2.44
Home 2.12
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.16
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 1.75 1.37
Over 2.0 1.48
Over 2.25 1.77
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 2.75 2.22
Over 3.0 2.69
Over 3.25 3.00
Over 3.5 3.28
Over 3.75 4.10
Over 4.0 5.60
Over 4.25 5.90
Over 4.5 6.25
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 0.75 7.40
Under 1.0 6.85
Under 1.25 4.05
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 1.75 2.74
Under 2.0 2.38
Under 2.25 2.00
Under 2.5 1.77
Under 2.75 1.55
Under 3.0 1.38
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 3.75 1.16
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.70
Draw 3.50
Home 1.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.16
Home 2.33
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 2.50
Home 2.12
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.54
Over 2.25 1.80
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 2.75 2.38
Over 3.0 3.00
Over 3.25 3.35
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 7.50
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.15
Under 1.75 2.75
Under 2.0 2.38
Under 2.25 1.95
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 2.75 1.54
Under 3.0 1.36
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 4.5 1.06

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 24 12 8 4 25:17 8 44
L D W L D
3 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
4 24 12 5 7 35:25 10 41
D W W L L
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
7 24 10 6 8 35:34 1 36
L W D W W
8 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
9 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
10 24 9 9 6 27:23 4 36
W D L D W
11 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
12 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
13 24 7 12 5 21:18 3 33
D W W D D
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 24 8 7 9 28:26 2 31
L D W W L
16 24 8 5 11 27:30 -3 29
W W W L L
17
Ceara Home
24 7 7 10 25:30 -5 28
W L L W W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 24 2 5 17 16:42 -26 11
L L L L W
20 24 2 4 18 16:50 -34 10
L L D L D
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation