BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo
Referee: R. Pereira
Ceara
Match Timeline
Fortaleza EC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
Mailton
Fortaleza EC
🟨
40'
Vitinho
Fortaleza EC
🟨
45+3'
Juan Miritello
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
Fernando ↔ Sanchez
Ceara
🟨
49'
Alex Silva
Ceara
🟨
49'
Maílton
Fortaleza EC
🔄
53'
Alex Silva ↔ Enzo Lodovico
Ceara
58'
Melk · Assist: Enzo Lodovico
Ceara
🔄
60'
Gustavo Prado ↔ Giulio
Ceara
🔄
60'
Fernandinho ↔ Matheus Araujo
Ceara
🔄
63'
Vitinho ↔ Rodriguinho
Fortaleza EC
68'
Julio Cesar · Assist: Melk
Ceara
🔄
74'
T. Pochettino ↔ Welliton
Fortaleza EC
🔄
75'
Ronald ↔ Paulo Baya
Fortaleza EC
🟨
77'
Dieguinho
Ceara
🔄
79'
Diego ↔ Lucas Lima
Ceara
🔄
87'
Rodrigo ↔ Lucca Prior
Fortaleza EC
🟨
90+3'
Enzo Valentim Lodovico
Ceara
🟨
90+5'
Lucas Sasha
Fortaleza EC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 34.1%
Draw 16.4%
Fortaleza EC Win 49.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara1
Fortaleza EC1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
8 GF / 8 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
10 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
3
1
Over 2.5
4
4.75
Shots on Goal
3.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 8 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 8 matches
Ceara Statistic Fortaleza EC
2 Wins 4
4 Draws 3
2 Losses 1
8 Goals For 10
8 Goals Against 8
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 3
5 Over 1.5 4
1 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 4
4.75 Shots On Goal 3.63
14.38 Total Shots 11.75
5.88 Corners 4.13
49.3% Ball Possession 39.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. Fortaleza EC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 15 points while Ceara sit 14 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fortaleza EC.

Ceara Analysis

With 10 points from 8 games and a place of 14, Ceara still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, and the 8:8 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Juan Alano (2 goals), Matheus Araujo (2 goals), Fernandinho (1 goals), with creative support from Giulio (1 assists), Joao Gabriel (1 assists), Lucca (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 15 points after 8 outings. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 10:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by J. B. Miritello (3 goals), Vitinho (2 goals), Luiz Fernando (1 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Ruan Carvalho (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 6 times, Fortaleza EC won 0 times, while 9 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:12 from Ceara's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.7%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 3-4-2-1 / Fortaleza EC 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 6, draws 9, Fortaleza EC wins 0
Stats
Ceara Ceara
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
10
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
3 Corner Kicks 2
20 Fouls 21
1 Offsides 2
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Goal 5
2 Shots off Goal 10
3 Blocked Shots 2
7 Shots insidebox 5
3 Shots outsidebox 12
4 Goalkeeper Saves 3
359 Total passes 350
287 Passes accurate 290
0.79 expected_goals 1.63
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Fortaleza EC
Formation
Ceara
Vinicius Silvestre
Vinicius Silvestre
Luan Freitas
Luan Freitas
Ronald
Ronald
Lucas Gazal
Lucas Gazal
Mailton
Mailton
Lucas Sasha
Lucas Sasha
Rodrigo
Rodrigo
Mauricio Junior
Mauricio Junior
T. Pochettino
T. Pochettino
Vitinho
Vitinho
J. B. Miritello
J. B. Miritello
Bruno Ferreira
Bruno Ferreira
Alex Silva
Alex Silva
Eder
Eder
Luiz Otavio
Luiz Otavio
Fernando
Fernando
Diego
Diego
Julio Cesar
Julio Cesar
Melk
🎯
Melk
Joao Gabriel
Joao Gabriel
Gustavo Prado
Gustavo Prado
Fernandinho
Fernandinho
Fortaleza EC 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
25
Vinicius Silvestre
G
4
Luan Freitas
D
8
Ronald
↓ 75'
D
3
Lucas Gazal
D
22
Mailton
⚽ 28' 🟨 49'
M
88
Lucas Sasha
🟨 90+5'
M
29
Rodrigo
↓ 87'
M
13
Mauricio Junior
M
7
T. Pochettino
↓ 74'
F
11
Vitinho
↓ 63' 🟨 40'
F
9
J. B. Miritello
🟨 45+3'
F
Substitutes
1
Joao Ricardo
G
10
Lucas Crispim
M
18
G. Fuentes
D
75
Rodriguinho
↑ 63'
M
28
Paulinho
D
38
Lucca Prior
↑ 87'
M
99
Kayke
F
20
Matheus Rossetto
M
31
Welliton
↑ 74'
F
77
Paulo Baya
↑ 75'
F
19
Lucas Emanoel
F
33
Kaua Rocha
D
Ceara 4-2-3-1 (estimated from previous match)
Starting XI
94
Bruno Ferreira
G
21
Alex Silva
↓ 53' 🟨 49'
D
33
Eder
D
4
Luiz Otavio
D
17
Fernando
↓ 46'
D
20
Diego
↓ 79' 🟨 77'
M
18
Julio Cesar
⚽ 68'
M
40
Melk
⚽ 58' 🎯 68'
M
81
Joao Gabriel
M
30
Gustavo Prado
↓ 60'
M
11
Fernandinho
↓ 60'
F
Substitutes
41
Gustavo Martins
G
2
R. Ramos
12
Sanchez
↑ 46'
D
98
Matheusinho
M
10
Juan Alano
F
90
Kaua Ziegler
F
35
Giulio
↑ 60'
F
80
Pedro Esli
M
31
Lucas Lima
↑ 79'
M
8
Matheus Araujo
↑ 60'
M
63
Gilmar
D
60
Enzo Lodovico
🎯 58' ↑ 53' 🟨 90+3'
F
Last matches: Ceara
07.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
4
3
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
1
1
D
Last matches: Fortaleza EC
09.08.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
1
1
D
29.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
22.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova
1
2
L
18.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Novorizontino
1
0
W
12.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Sport Recife
2
1
W
21.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
CRB
1
1
D
16.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
America Mineiro
0
3
L
09.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Athletic Club
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Londrina
3
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Avai
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Goias
4
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Operario-PR
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Criciuma
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
São Bernardo
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Juventude
2
1
W
31.03.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
0
0
D
21.03.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Botafogo SP
0
4
L
H2H: Ceara vs Fortaleza EC
17.05.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.04.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
0
W
08.03.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
01.03.26
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
1
1
D
08.02.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
06.11.25
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
13.07.25
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
0
1
W
22.03.25
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
15.03.25
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
0
1
W
08.02.25
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
1
2
W
06.04.24
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
30.03.24
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
0
0
D
21.03.24
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
0
1
W
17.02.24
H2H
Fortaleza EC
Ceara
3
3
D
08.04.23
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
2
D
Last matches: Ceara
07.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ceara
17.05.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.04.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
0
W
08.03.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
08.02.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
06.11.25
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
22.03.25
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
06.04.24
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
08.04.23
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
2
D
Last matches: Fortaleza EC
09.08.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Cuiaba
1
1
D
22.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
CRB
1
1
D
09.06.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Athletic Club
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Avai
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Operario-PR
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
São Bernardo
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Fortaleza EC
Botafogo SP
0
4
L
H2H away: Fortaleza EC
17.05.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
L
09.04.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
0
L
08.03.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
08.02.26
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
06.11.25
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
22.03.25
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
06.04.24
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
08.04.23
H2H
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
2
D

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 11 7 3 23:14 9 40
L D W W W
2 21 11 5 5 23:12 11 38
W W L W W
3 21 10 5 6 24:20 4 35
D W L W L
4 21 10 5 6 29:28 1 35
L L W D W
5 21 10 4 7 27:25 2 34
L L W L L
6 21 9 6 6 32:20 12 33
L W L L L
7 21 9 5 7 22:26 -4 32
W L D W D
8 21 8 8 5 24:21 3 32
D W W D W
9 21 7 11 3 26:19 7 32
W D D D D
10 21 7 10 4 21:18 3 31
W D W D D
11 21 8 6 7 31:24 7 30
W L L D D
12 20 8 5 7 31:32 -1 29
W W W D L
13 21 7 6 8 26:22 4 27
W L W D D
14 21 7 5 9 25:25 0 26
D D W L L
15 21 5 11 5 16:16 0 26
D D L L D
16
Ceara Home
21 6 7 8 22:25 -3 25
W W L D D
17 21 5 5 11 27:32 -5 20
L L L D D
18 20 5 5 10 21:27 -6 20
L W D W L
19 21 2 5 14 15:33 -18 11
L W L D D
20 21 2 3 16 15:41 -26 9
L D L L L
Promotion
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