BRAZIL SERIE C
16.08.2026 19:00
Estadio Francisco Stedile
Referee: D. Serafim
Caxias
Match Timeline
Figueirense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Jhonatan Ribeiro
Caxias
27'
Dentinho
Caxias
🟨
38'
Marcelo Freitas
Caxias
🟨
44'
Arthur Henrique
Figueirense
45'
Emerson Galego
Figueirense
🟨
54'
Dudu
Figueirense
🔄
56'
Mailson ↔ Jose Carlos
Figueirense
🔄
59'
Joao Lucas ↔ Vitor Feijao
Caxias
🔄
59'
Jhonatan Ribeiro ↔ Calyson
Caxias
63'
Jhonnathan
Figueirense
🔄
74'
Dudu ↔ L. Renz
Figueirense
🔄
74'
Igor Bolt ↔ Silvinho
Figueirense
🔄
74'
Emerson Galego ↔ Hyuri
Figueirense
🔄
76'
Marcelo Freitas ↔ Gaspar
Caxias
🟨
80'
Breno
Figueirense
🔄
82'
Breno ↔ Felipe Santiago
Figueirense
🔄
84'
Felipe Albuquerque ↔ Vitor Gabriel
Caxias
🔄
84'
Breno Santos ↔ Matheus Nunes
Caxias
🟨
86'
Lucas Dias
Figueirense
🟨
87'
Vitor Gabriel
Caxias

Caxias vs Figueirense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 64.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
64.4%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Caxias Win 35.6%
Draw 25.9%
Figueirense Win 38.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caxias1.1
Figueirense0.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caxias Caxias
WWDLW
16 GF / 12 GA
Figueirense Figueirense
WLDWL
15 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.94
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
8
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caxias Caxias 16 matches
Figueirense Figueirense 16 matches
Caxias Statistic Figueirense
6 Wins 5
6 Draws 6
4 Losses 5
16 Goals For 15
12 Goals Against 20
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.94
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
8 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 8
0 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Caxias's more proactive style and Figueirense's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Figueirense having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Figueirense. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Caxias Analysis

Caxias sit 11 with 21 points after 15 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 14:12 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Figueirense Analysis

Figueirense sit 13 with 21 points after 16 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, while the 15:20 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Caxias won 2 times, Figueirense won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:5 from Caxias's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.1%)
H2H summary: Caxias wins 2, draws 0, Figueirense wins 1

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L L W W
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
L D W D D
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W W D W L
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W L W W W
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L W L W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D D D
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
D L L L W
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W W D W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation