PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Referee: A. Nobre
Casa Pia
Match Timeline
Santa Clara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
58'
Lucas Soares
Santa Clara
🔄
63'
I. Mohamed ↔ L. Ofori
Casa Pia
🔄
63'
Cassiano ↔ C. Mendes
Casa Pia
🔄
67'
Lucas Soares ↔ Diogo Calila
Santa Clara
🔄
67'
J. Tavares ↔ Darlan
Santa Clara
🔄
72'
J. Marques ↔ D. Livramento
Casa Pia
🔄
73'
R. Brito ↔ S. Perez
Casa Pia
🟨
74'
Pedro Rosas
Casa Pia
🔄
74'
Vinicius Lopes ↔ Brenner
Santa Clara
🔄
74'
G. Paciencia ↔ Fernando
Santa Clara
🔄
85'
Gabriel Silva ↔ Welinton Torrao
Santa Clara
🔄
86'
J. Livolant ↔ K. Osundina
Casa Pia
🟨
88'
Claudio Mendes
Casa Pia
🟨
90+6'
Gaizka Larrazabal
Casa Pia
🟨
90'
Henrique Silva
Santa Clara

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
61%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Casa Pia Win 45.2%
Draw 0%
Santa Clara Win 54.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Casa Pia1.07
Santa Clara1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Casa Pia Casa Pia
WWDLW
28 GF / 52 GA
Santa Clara Santa Clara
WLDWL
33 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.94
1.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
14
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
13
2.82
Shots on Goal
2.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Casa Pia Casa Pia 28 matches
Santa Clara Santa Clara 35 matches
Casa Pia Statistic Santa Clara
5 Wins 9
10 Draws 9
13 Losses 17
28 Goals For 33
52 Goals Against 41
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.94
1.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
14 BTTS Yes 14
24 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 12
12 Failed To Score 13
2.82 Shots On Goal 2.97
8.68 Total Shots 9.83
3.79 Corners 4.09
42% Ball Possession 41.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Santa Clara. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Casa Pia expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Santa Clara in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santa Clara having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Casa Pia Analysis

Casa Pia approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 25 points from 28 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats with a 28:52 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Cassiano (5 goals), Gaizka Larrazabal (3 goals), J. Livolant (3 goals), with creative support from J. Livolant (8 assists), Gaizka Larrazabal (4 assists), A. Conte (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santa Clara Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Santa Clara have collected 28 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 26:37 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Vinícius Lopes (6 goals), Gabriel Silva (4 goals), Serginho (4 goals), with creative support from Serginho (2 assists), Wendell (2 assists), Vinícius Lopes (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Casa Pia won 2 times, Santa Clara won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:7 from Casa Pia's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.71 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Casa Pia 3-4-3 / Santa Clara 4-4-2
H2H summary: Casa Pia wins 2, draws 2, Santa Clara wins 3
Stats
Casa Pia Casa Pia
Santa Clara Santa Clara
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
0
4 Corner Kicks 6
20 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 3
1 Blocked Shots 0
7 Shots insidebox 3
3 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
196 Total passes 421
121 Passes accurate 349
1.27 expected_goals 0.19
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Casa Pia
Formation
Santa Clara
P. Sequeira
P. Sequeira
J. Goulart
J. Goulart
A. Geraldes
A. Geraldes
D. Sousa
D. Sousa
G. Larrazabal
G. Larrazabal
I. Mohamed
I. Mohamed
R. Brito
R. Brito
P. Rosas
P. Rosas
J. Livolant
J. Livolant
Cassiano
Cassiano
J. Marques
J. Marques
Gabriel Batista
Gabriel Batista
Lucas Soares
Lucas Soares
S. Lima
S. Lima
H. Silva
H. Silva
Guilherme Romao
Guilherme Romao
J. Tavares
J. Tavares
P. Ferreira
P. Ferreira
Serginho
Serginho
Gabriel Silva
Gabriel Silva
G. Paciencia
G. Paciencia
Vinicius Lopes
Vinicius Lopes
Casa Pia 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
P. Sequeira
G
4
J. Goulart
D
18
A. Geraldes
D
43
D. Sousa
D
72
G. Larrazabal
🟨 90+6'
M
24
I. Mohamed
↓ 63'
M
8
R. Brito
↓ 73'
M
75
P. Rosas
🟨 74'
M
29
J. Livolant
↓ 86'
F
90
Cassiano
↓ 63'
F
11
J. Marques
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
95
I. Mandic
G
42
S. Perez
↑ 73'
M
80
L. Ofori
↑ 63'
M
21
T. Morais
F
13
K. Osundina
↑ 86'
F
99
C. Mendes
↑ 63' 🟨 88'
F
10
D. Livramento
↑ 72'
F
19
K. Prieto
F
3
Kaly
D
Santa Clara 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Gabriel Batista
G
42
Lucas Soares
↓ 67' 🟨 58'
D
23
S. Lima
D
94
H. Silva
🟨 90'
D
5
Guilherme Romao
D
65
J. Tavares
↓ 67'
M
8
P. Ferreira
M
35
Serginho
M
10
Gabriel Silva
↓ 85'
F
39
G. Paciencia
↓ 74'
F
70
Vinicius Lopes
↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
12
Neneca
G
21
F. Venancio
D
2
Diogo Calila
↑ 67'
D
64
Paulo Victor
D
77
Gustavo Klismahn
M
49
Welinton Torrao
↑ 85'
F
37
Darlan
↑ 67'
M
11
Brenner
↑ 74'
F
26
Fernando
↑ 74'
F
Last matches: Casa Pia
28.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
2
0
W
20.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
11.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Tondela
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Alverca
1
3
L
06.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Benfica
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Estrela
0
4
L
07.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Estoril
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Moreirense
1
1
D
23.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Famalicao
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Arouca
3
2
W
08.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Nacional
0
0
D
02.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
FC Porto
2
1
W
23.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
AVS
3
3
D
16.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
0
3
L
04.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
3
L
28.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
0
D
Last matches: Santa Clara
16.05.26
Pri
Santa Clara
FC Porto
0
1
L
11.05.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Arouca
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
SC Braga
2
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Sporting CP
2
4
L
21.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
AVS
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Tondela
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Alverca
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Benfica
1
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Estrela
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Estoril
2
4
L
24.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Moreirense
0
1
L
18.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Famalicao
0
1
L
11.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Nacional
3
3
D
04.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
FC Porto
0
1
L
21.12.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Arouca
0
0
D
15.12.25
Pri
Santa Clara
SC Braga
0
1
L
H2H: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
18.04.26
H2H
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
0
D
06.12.25
H2H
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
1
0
L
01.02.25
H2H
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
2
1
L
24.08.24
H2H
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
2
L
29.01.23
H2H
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
2
1
W
07.08.22
H2H
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
0
0
D
22.12.19
H2H
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
1
2
W
Last matches: Casa Pia
28.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
2
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Tondela
0
1
L
23.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
06.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Benfica
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Moreirense
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Arouca
3
2
W
02.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
FC Porto
2
1
W
23.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
AVS
3
3
D
28.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
0
D
13.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
1
1
D
29.11.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Alverca
0
2
L
01.11.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Estrela
3
5
L
03.10.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Estoril
2
2
D
21.09.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Famalicao
1
1
D
30.08.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Nacional
0
2
L
08.08.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
0
2
L
H2H at home: Casa Pia
18.04.26
H2H
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
0
D
24.08.24
H2H
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
2
L
29.01.23
H2H
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
2
1
W
Last matches: Santa Clara
16.05.26
Pri
Santa Clara
FC Porto
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Arouca
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Sporting CP
2
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
AVS
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Tondela
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Alverca
1
1
D
07.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Estrela
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Moreirense
0
1
L
11.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Nacional
3
3
D
15.12.25
Pri
Santa Clara
SC Braga
0
1
L
30.11.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
1
1
D
03.11.25
Pri
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
0
1
L
04.10.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
1
2
L
12.09.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Benfica
1
1
D
06.09.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Estoril
1
0
W
28.08.25
UEF
Santa Clara
Shamrock Rovers
0
0
D
10.08.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Famalicao
0
3
L
07.08.25
UEF
Santa Clara
Larne
3
0
W
24.07.25
UEF
Santa Clara
NK Varazdin
1
2
L
H2H away: Santa Clara
18.04.26
H2H
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
0
D
24.08.24
H2H
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
2
W
29.01.23
H2H
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
2
1
L