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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
04.10.2026 23:10
Estadio Américo Montanini
Referee: W. Roldan
Bucaramanga
Match Timeline
Junior
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
P. Ortiz
Bucaramanga
🟥
22'
J. Garcia
Bucaramanga
⚽
25'
L. Muriel
Junior
⚽
33'
F. Hinestroza · Assist: L. Pons
Bucaramanga
⚽
37'
E. Batalla · Assist: F. Hinestroza
Bucaramanga
🟨
43'
P. Ortiz
Junior
🔄
46'
D. Rivera ↔ D. Socarras
Junior
🟨
61'
F. Sambueza
Bucaramanga
⚽
64'
L. Muriel · Assist: L. Muriel
Junior
🟨
64'
E. Batalla
Bucaramanga
🔄
66'
F. S. Angel Bernal ↔ H. Rivera
Junior
🔄
66'
J. Rivas ↔ K. Perez
Junior
🔄
66'
D. Caicedo ↔ B. Castrillon
Junior
🔄
74'
F. Hinestroza ↔ A. Gutierrez
Bucaramanga
🔄
74'
F. Sambueza ↔ O. Albornoz
Bucaramanga
🔄
81'
G. Celis ↔ G. Paiva
Junior
🔄
84'
L. Pons ↔ B. Caicedo
Bucaramanga
🔄
85'
E. Batalla ↔ L. Flores
Bucaramanga
🔄
85'
N. Castrillon ↔ A. Murrilo
Bucaramanga

Bucaramanga vs Junior Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Bucaramanga Win 44.9%
Draw 9.9%
Junior Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bucaramanga1.43
Junior1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bucaramanga Bucaramanga
WWDLW
44 GF / 32 GA
Junior Junior
WLDWL
58 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
17
BTTS Yes
22
15
Over 2.5
20
4.1
Shots on Goal
4.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 30 matches
Junior Junior 41 matches
Bucaramanga Statistic Junior
10 Wins 16
13 Draws 9
7 Losses 16
44 Goals For 58
32 Goals Against 56
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
17 BTTS Yes 22
24 Over 1.5 33
15 Over 2.5 20
9 Over 3.5 10
10 Clean Sheets 10
8 Failed To Score 10
4.1 Shots On Goal 4.29
12.28 Total Shots 13.1
3.79 Corners 4.63
49.2% Ball Possession 51.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Junior carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 35 points while Bucaramanga sit 13 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bucaramanga expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Junior in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Junior having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Junior. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Bucaramanga Analysis

So far, Bucaramanga have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 23 points from 19 matches. The record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 26:20 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Pons (11 goals), E. Batalla (10 goals), F. Sambueza (5 goals), with creative support from F. Sambueza (7 assists), L. Pons (4 assists), E. Batalla (4 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Junior Analysis

Placed 2 with 35 points from 19 outings, Junior continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, while the 31:24 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Muriel (14 goals), T. Gutiérrez (8 goals), C. Barrios (5 goals), with creative support from G. Paiva (5 assists), Y. Súarez (4 assists), T. Gutiérrez (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bucaramanga won 3 times, Junior won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:15 from Bucaramanga's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.2%)
Predicted formations: Bucaramanga 5-3-2 / Junior 4-4-2
H2H summary: Bucaramanga wins 3, draws 5, Junior wins 7

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
D W D L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D L L W W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W W D L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L D D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D D W W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L D L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D W L L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W W W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
W L L L D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L D W L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L L D D
Post season qualification