COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
18.09.2026 00:00
Estadio Américo Montanini
Referee: Carlos Ortega
Bucaramanga
Match Timeline
Independiente Medellin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
16'
Fabián Sambueza
Bucaramanga
🟨
21'
Yony González
Independiente Medellin
26'
Luciano Pons · Assist: Emerson Batalla
Bucaramanga
🟨
39'
Esneyder Mena
Independiente Medellin
40'
Felix Charrupi · Assist: Luciano Pons
Bucaramanga
45+4'
Jeison Medina · Assist: Didier Moreno
Independiente Medellin
🔄
45'
Esneyder Mena ↔ Hayen Palacios
Independiente Medellin
🔄
45'
Yony González ↔ Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez
Independiente Medellin
🔄
45'
Jhan Carlos Mena Hinestroza ↔ Daniel Cataño
Independiente Medellin
VAR
49'
John Montano
Independiente Medellin
51'
Juan Quintero
Independiente Medellin
🔄
71'
John Montano ↔ Keiner David Klinger Vasquez
Independiente Medellin
🟨
72'
Carlos Romaña
Bucaramanga
VAR
76'
Keiner David Klinger Vasquez
Independiente Medellin
🔄
79'
Nilson Castrillón ↔ Martín Rea
Bucaramanga
🔄
79'
Fredy Hinestroza ↔ Adrián Murillo
Bucaramanga
🟨
86'
Brandon·Caicedo
Bucaramanga
🔄
86'
Emerson Batalla ↔ Leonardo Flores
Bucaramanga
🔄
86'
Luciano Pons ↔ Brandon·Caicedo
Bucaramanga
🟨
90+4'
Keiner David Klinger Vasquez
Independiente Medellin

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.7%
Odds 3.32
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.06
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.7%
3.32
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.06
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.11
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Bucaramanga Win 36.8%
Draw 13.5%
Independiente Medellin Win 49.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bucaramanga1.32
Independiente Medellin1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bucaramanga Bucaramanga
WWDLW
37 GF / 29 GA
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
WLDWL
54 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
15
BTTS Yes
25
13
Over 2.5
22
4.12
Shots on Goal
4.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 27 matches
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 37 matches
Bucaramanga Statistic Independiente Medellin
8 Wins 17
12 Draws 8
7 Losses 12
37 Goals For 54
29 Goals Against 46
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
15 BTTS Yes 25
21 Over 1.5 28
13 Over 2.5 22
7 Over 3.5 10
9 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 5
4.12 Shots On Goal 4.4
12.58 Total Shots 13.23
4.08 Corners 4.69
50.8% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independiente Medellin. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bucaramanga expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Independiente Medellin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente Medellin having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Bucaramanga Analysis

Bucaramanga are currently 13 in the standings with 23 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 26:20 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Pons (9 goals), E. Batalla (8 goals), F. Sambueza (5 goals), with creative support from F. Sambueza (6 assists), E. Batalla (3 assists), K. Londoño (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

Independiente Medellin are currently 11 in the standings with 26 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 26:24 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Montaño (6 goals), Daniel Cataño (2 goals), Alexis Serna (2 goals), with creative support from J. Montaño (3 assists), Frank Fabra (3 assists), Daniel Cataño (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bucaramanga won 3 times, Independiente Medellin won 11 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:28 from Bucaramanga's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.5%)
Predicted formations: Bucaramanga 3-4-3 / Independiente Medellin 4-4-2
H2H summary: Bucaramanga wins 3, draws 1, Independiente Medellin wins 11

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
L W W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
W L D D L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W W D L D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D L L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L L W D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W D D L
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W D D L
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
D L W W L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D L D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L L L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
L D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W W L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W W D
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L D L W
Post season qualification