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ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
18.10.2026 13:00
American Express Stadium
Referee: Robert Jones
Brighton
Match Timeline
Crystal Palace
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
Jaydee Canvot
Brighton
⚽
7'
Diego Gomez · Assist: Olivier Boscagli
Brighton
⚽
10'
Yasin Ayari · Assist: Charalampos Kostoulas
Brighton
🟨
29'
Pascal Groß
Brighton
🔄
45'
Quinten Timber ↔ Dwight McNeil
Crystal Palace
⚽
49'
Charalampos Kostoulas
Brighton
🟨
51'
Daichi Kamada
Crystal Palace
🔄
53'
Honest Ahanor ↔ Jefferson Lerma
Crystal Palace
🔄
61'
Jörgen Strand Larsen ↔ Jean-Philippe Mateta
Crystal Palace
🔄
61'
Yeremy Pino ↔ Eddie Nketiah
Crystal Palace
🟨
64'
Chema Andrés
Brighton
🔄
71'
Pascal Groß ↔ Jack Hinshelwood
Brighton
🔄
71'
Charalampos Kostoulas ↔ Georginio Rutter
Brighton
🔄
81'
Daichi Kamada ↔ Will Hughes
Crystal Palace
🔄
81'
Olivier Boscagli ↔ Jaouen Hadjam
Brighton
🔄
81'
Yasin Ayari ↔ Malick Yalcouyé
Brighton
⚽
84'
Jack Hinshelwood
Brighton
🔄
90'
Lewis Dunk ↔ Michael Svoboda
Brighton

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.7%
Odds 1.44
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.55
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.7%
1.44 ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.55 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.20 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Brighton Win 71.7%
Draw 3.6%
Crystal Palace Win 24.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Brighton2.47
Crystal Palace1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Brighton Brighton
W W W W D
15 GF / 1 GA
Crystal Palace Crystal Palace
L W L D W
9 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
2.83
Average Goals Scored
1.69
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.92
3
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
10
6.22
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Brighton Brighton 12 matches
Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 13 matches
Brighton Statistic Crystal Palace
9 Wins 5
2 Draws 1
1 Losses 7
34 Goals For 22
8 Goals Against 25
2.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.92
3 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 7
9 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 5
6.22 Shots On Goal 4.38
21 Total Shots 11.75
7 Corners 3.25
65% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Brighton's more proactive style and Crystal Palace's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Brighton arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 13 points compared to Crystal Palace in 15 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Crystal Palace arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Brighton expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Crystal Palace in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Crystal Palace having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Crystal Palace. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Brighton Analysis

Brighton approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 13 points after 6 outings. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 18:5, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by P. Groß (3 goals), M. De Cuyper (2 goals), C. Kostoulas (2 goals), with creative support from P. Groß (4 assists), M. De Cuyper (2 assists), D. Gómez (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Crystal Palace Analysis

Crystal Palace sit 15 with 4 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 6:11 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on T. Mitchell (2 goals), A. Khalaili (1 goals), J. Strand Larsen (1 goals), with creative support from D. Kamada (3 assists), E. Nketiah (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Brighton won 3 times, Crystal Palace won 5 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:17 from Brighton's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Brighton 4-2-3-1 / Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Brighton 8, Crystal Palace 6
H2H summary: Brighton wins 3, draws 7, Crystal Palace wins 5

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 7 0 0 19:7 12 21
W W W W W
2 7 6 0 1 11:5 6 18
W W L W W
3 7 5 1 1 23:5 18 16
W W W W D
4 7 4 1 2 17:13 4 13
W W L D L
5 7 3 3 1 9:8 1 12
W L W D W
6 7 2 4 1 13:8 5 10
L D W D D
7 7 2 4 1 9:6 3 10
D L D W D
8 7 2 4 1 8:7 1 10
L D W D D
9 7 2 3 2 8:7 1 9
L D L D D
10 7 3 0 4 11:15 -4 9
L W L W L
11 7 2 2 3 10:14 -4 8
L L W L D
12 7 2 2 3 7:11 -4 8
W D W L D
13 7 1 4 2 10:10 0 7
D D D L D
14 7 2 1 4 9:17 -8 7
L W D L W
15 7 1 3 3 9:13 -4 6
W L L D D
16 7 1 3 3 6:10 -4 6
W D L D D
17 7 2 0 5 6:14 -8 6
L W W L L
18 7 1 2 4 7:10 -3 5
W L D D L
19 7 1 2 4 5:9 -4 5
L L L W D
20 7 1 1 5 6:14 -8 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship