ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
14.05.2026 19:00
Valley Parade
Referee: T. Kirk
Bradford
Match Timeline
Bolton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
43'
E. Toal ↔ M. Conway
Bolton
🔄
46'
C. Tilt ↔ T. Wright
Bradford
🔄
61'
J. Metcalfe ↔ G. Lapslie
Bradford
🔄
61'
B. Pointon ↔ S. Humphrys
Bradford
🔄
62'
J. Wright ↔ N. Powell
Bradford
🔄
65'
I. Cissoko ↔ T. Gale
Bolton
🔄
66'
R. Rodrigues ↔ S. Dalby
Bolton
🔄
76'
E. Erhahon ↔ X. Simons
Bolton
🔄
76'
M. Burstow ↔ J. McAtee
Bolton
81'
X. Simons
Bolton
🟨
90+1'
Aden Baldwin
Bradford
🔄
90+2'
M. Power ↔ W. Swan
Bradford

Bradford vs Bolton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 38.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
38.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bradford Win 38.7%
Draw 29%
Bolton Win 32.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bradford1.19
Bolton1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bradford Bradford
WWDLW
58 GF / 53 GA
Bolton Bolton
WLDWL
73 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.49
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
27
BTTS Yes
30
24
Over 2.5
24
3.91
Shots on Goal
4.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bradford Bradford 48 matches
Bolton Bolton 49 matches
Bradford Statistic Bolton
22 Wins 21
11 Draws 18
15 Losses 10
58 Goals For 73
53 Goals Against 57
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.49
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
27 BTTS Yes 30
33 Over 1.5 38
24 Over 2.5 24
8 Over 3.5 13
14 Clean Sheets 12
10 Failed To Score 11
3.91 Shots On Goal 4.78
12.57 Total Shots 15.9
5.53 Corners 6.02
50% Ball Possession 56.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Bolton have the edge after taking the first leg 1-0, leaving Bradford needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Bolton controlled more possession in the first leg (65% against 35%). Bolton carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 1 shots on goal compared to 0. Bolton circulated the ball more often, making 514 passes to 264 and completing 422. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bradford expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Bolton in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bolton having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Bolton. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Bradford Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Bradford arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 77 points after 46 matches. With 22 wins, 11 draws, and 13 losses plus a goal ratio of 58:51, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on A. Sarcevic (11 goals), B. Pointon (10 goals), S. Humphrys (7 goals), with creative support from Josh Neufville (7 assists), Max Power (5 assists), A. Sarcevic (3 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 15 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Bolton Analysis

Bolton come into this tie placed 5 in their league with 75 points from 46 matches. The return of 19 wins, 18 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 70:52 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by M. Burstow (12 goals), S. Dalby (10 goals), A. Cozier-Duberry (9 goals), with creative support from A. Cozier-Duberry (10 assists), M. Burstow (5 assists), S. Dalby (5 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Bradford won 1 times, Bolton won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:12 from Bradford's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (71.1%)
Predicted formations: Bradford 3-4-2-1 / Bolton 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Bradford wins 1, draws 6, Bolton wins 4

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two