ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
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Estadio Alberto J. Armando

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.9%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Boca Juniors Win 64.9%
Draw 11.5%
Lanus Win 23.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Boca Juniors1.2
Lanus0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
WWDLW
43 GF / 26 GA
Lanus Lanus
WLDWL
33 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.06
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
15
BTTS Yes
11
11
Over 2.5
12
4.48
Shots on Goal
4.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 34 matches
Lanus Lanus 31 matches
Boca Juniors Statistic Lanus
15 Wins 12
12 Draws 7
7 Losses 12
43 Goals For 33
26 Goals Against 34
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
15 BTTS Yes 11
23 Over 1.5 18
11 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 6
15 Clean Sheets 12
7 Failed To Score 11
4.48 Shots On Goal 4.31
13.48 Total Shots 12.97
5.07 Corners 4.86
57.2% Ball Possession 51.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lanus arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Boca Juniors expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Lanus in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lanus having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lanus. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Boca Juniors Analysis

Boca Juniors arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 30 points after 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, while the 22:9 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Milton Giménez (4 goals), Alan Velasco (3 goals), Adam Bareiro (3 goals), with creative support from Tomás Aranda (3 assists), Miguel Merentiel (2 assists), Exequiel Zeballos (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Lanus Analysis

Lanus sit 6 with 24 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 18:15 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Yoshan Valois (4 goals), Dylan Aquino (1 goals), Felipe Peña Biafore (1 goals), with creative support from Yoshan Valois (1 assists), Dylan Aquino (1 assists), Sasha Marcich (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Boca Juniors won 7 times, Lanus won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:14 from Boca Juniors's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: Boca Juniors 4-3-3 / Lanus 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Boca Juniors wins 7, draws 4, Lanus wins 4
Last matches: Boca Juniors
24.08.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Racing Club
1
1
D
16.08.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Platense
1
1
D
08.08.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
05.08.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
02.08.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
2
2
D
26.07.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Deportivo Riestra
0
3
L
17.07.26
Cop
Boca Juniors
Sarmiento Junin
2
0
W
09.07.26
Fri
Boca Juniors
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
29.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
U. Catolica
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
09.05.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Huracan
2
3
L
06.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
0
1
L
23.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Defensa Y Justicia
4
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
River Plate
1
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
3
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Independiente
1
1
D
08.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
U. Catolica
2
1
W
02.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Talleres Cordoba
1
0
W
Last matches: Lanus
25.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
1
1
D
17.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Independiente
1
3
L
12.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
3
0
W
06.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
1
2
L
03.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
0
1
L
26.07.26
Lig
Lanus
San Lorenzo
1
0
W
30.05.26
Cop
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
26.05.26
CON
Lanus
Mirassol
1
0
W
21.05.26
CON
Lanus
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
0
2
L
06.05.26
CON
Lanus
Always Ready
0
4
L
02.05.26
Lig
Lanus
Deportivo Riestra
0
0
D
28.04.26
CON
Lanus
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
24.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0
0
D
21.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Gimnasia M.
0
1
L
16.04.26
CON
Lanus
Always Ready
1
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Banfield
1
0
W
08.04.26
CON
Lanus
Mirassol
0
1
L
01.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Platense
0
0
D
27.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
1
2
L
H2H: Boca Juniors vs Lanus
05.03.26
H2H
Lanus
Boca Juniors
0
3
W
11.05.25
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
0
0
D
03.11.24
H2H
Lanus
Boca Juniors
1
0
L
19.02.24
H2H
Lanus
Boca Juniors
2
1
L
23.09.23
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
1
D
10.06.23
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
1
D
15.09.22
H2H
Lanus
Boca Juniors
0
1
W
17.04.22
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
1
D
09.10.21
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
4
2
W
02.05.21
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
0
W
20.11.20
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
2
L
01.11.20
H2H
Lanus
Boca Juniors
1
2
W
01.11.19
H2H
Lanus
Boca Juniors
2
1
L
17.02.19
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
2
1
W
10.09.17
H2H
Lanus
Boca Juniors
0
1
W
Last matches: Boca Juniors
08.08.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
05.08.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
09.07.26
Fri
Boca Juniors
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
29.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
U. Catolica
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
09.05.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Huracan
2
3
L
15.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
3
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Independiente
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Instituto Cordoba
2
0
W
11.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
San Lorenzo
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
25.02.26
Cop
Boca Juniors
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
2
0
W
20.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Racing Club
0
0
D
15.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Platense
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
2
0
W
25.01.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Deportivo Riestra
1
0
W
19.01.26
Fri
Boca Juniors
Olimpia
2
1
W
14.01.26
Fri
Boca Juniors
Millonarios
0
0
D
H2H at home: Boca Juniors
11.05.25
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
0
0
D
23.09.23
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
1
D
10.06.23
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
1
D
17.04.22
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
1
D
09.10.21
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
4
2
W
02.05.21
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
0
W
20.11.20
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
2
L
17.02.19
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
2
1
W
Last matches: Lanus
12.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
3
0
W
06.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
1
2
L
30.05.26
Cop
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
21.05.26
CON
Lanus
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
0
2
L
06.05.26
CON
Lanus
Always Ready
0
4
L
21.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Gimnasia M.
0
1
L
08.04.26
CON
Lanus
Mirassol
0
1
L
27.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
W
13.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
02.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Defensa Y Justicia
1
1
D
13.02.26
Lig
Lanus
Independiente
0
2
L
04.02.26
Lig
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
2
2
D
23.01.26
Lig
Lanus
San Lorenzo
3
2
W
H2H away: Lanus
11.05.25
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
0
0
D
23.09.23
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
1
D
10.06.23
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
1
D
17.04.22
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
1
D
09.10.21
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
4
2
L
02.05.21
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
0
L
20.11.20
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
1
2
W
17.02.19
H2H
Boca Juniors
Lanus
2
1
L

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
L W L L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
D D D W D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D D D W W
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D L L W L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L L W
6
Lanus Away
16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
D L W L L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L L W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
W L L W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
D W W W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W D W L W
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W W L W L
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
W D W L L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L W W L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
W W L D L
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D L W L L
Knockout Phase