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TURKEY › SüPER LIG
26.10.2026 16:00
Tupras Stadium

Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Beşiktaş Win 81.2%
Draw 4%
Başakşehir Win 14.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Beşiktaş1.59
Başakşehir1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Beşiktaş Beşiktaş
WWDLW
38 GF / 22 GA
Başakşehir Başakşehir
WLDWL
21 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
10
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
7
4.88
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 22 matches
Başakşehir Başakşehir 16 matches
Beşiktaş Statistic Başakşehir
14 Wins 5
2 Draws 6
6 Losses 5
38 Goals For 21
22 Goals Against 22
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
10 BTTS Yes 10
15 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 3
4.88 Shots On Goal 4.2
13.25 Total Shots 13.5
5.81 Corners 5.1
49.8% Ball Possession 54%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Beşiktaş's more proactive style and Başakşehir's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Başakşehir. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Beşiktaş arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 15 points compared to Başakşehir in 10 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Beşiktaş expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Başakşehir in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Başakşehir having the stronger overall control. Beşiktaş come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Beşiktaş Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 15 points from 7 games, Beşiktaş bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 5 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 16:8, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Dušan Vlahović (6 goals), Orkun Kökçü (2 goals), Václav Černý (2 goals), with creative support from Junior Olaitan (2 assists), Orkun Kökçü (1 assists), Václav Černý (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Başakşehir Analysis

So far, Başakşehir have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 11 points from 8 matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 12:12 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Eldor Shomurodov (7 goals), Andreas Skov Olsen (1 goals), Umut Güneş (1 goals), with creative support from Andreas Skov Olsen (2 assists), Ivan Brnić (2 assists), Eldor Shomurodov (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Beşiktaş won 8 times, Başakşehir won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:19 from Beşiktaş's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1 / Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Beşiktaş wins 8, draws 3, Başakşehir wins 4

Standings

Süper Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 17:11 6 19
W W L W W
2 8 5 2 1 18:9 9 17
W D W W D
3 8 5 1 2 22:6 16 16
W W W D L
4 7 5 0 2 16:8 8 15
W L W W W
5 7 4 1 2 16:5 11 13
W W L W L
6 8 4 1 3 18:13 5 13
W W L W W
7 8 3 4 1 12:9 3 13
W L D W D
8 8 4 0 4 9:8 1 12
L L W L W
9 8 3 3 2 8:9 -1 12
L D W D W
10 8 3 2 3 12:12 0 11
W D W L L
11 8 3 2 3 5:11 -6 11
W D W L W
12 8 3 1 4 8:11 -3 10
L L D W L
13 8 2 3 3 17:16 1 9
W W D D L
14 8 2 2 4 8:12 -4 8
L L L D W
15 8 2 2 4 7:16 -9 8
L D L L L
16 8 1 2 5 4:9 -5 5
L D D W L
17 8 1 1 6 7:19 -12 4
L L L L L
18 8 1 0 7 2:22 -20 3
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. Lig