BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Fonte Nova
Referee: R. Pereira
Bahia
Match Timeline
Cruzeiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Joao Paulo
Bahia
🟨
24'
Fabricio Bruno
Cruzeiro
27'
Luciano Juba
Bahia
🔄
34'
Willian Jose ↔ Everaldo
Bahia
🟨
35'
S. Ramos
Bahia
41'
Kaua Moraes · Assist: N. Villarreal
Cruzeiro
🟨
45+3'
Everaldo
Bahia
🔄
46'
M. Sanabria ↔ Ademir
Bahia
🔄
46'
Matheus Pereira ↔ Kenji
Cruzeiro
🔄
61'
Everton Ribeiro ↔ Rodrigo
Bahia
🟨
62'
Kaua Moraes
Cruzeiro
🔄
62'
N. Villarreal ↔ Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
🔄
72'
Jean Lucas ↔ Michel Araujo
Bahia
🔄
72'
Erick Pulga ↔ C. Olivera
Bahia
🔄
72'
Kaua Moraes ↔ L. Villalba
Cruzeiro
🔄
72'
L. Sinisterra ↔ Wanderson
Cruzeiro
🟨
77'
L. Romero
Cruzeiro
🔄
78'
Gerson ↔ Lucas Silva
Cruzeiro
86'
Kenji · Assist: L. Romero
Cruzeiro
🟨
89'
Otavio Costa
Cruzeiro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bahia Win 62.2%
Draw 12.6%
Cruzeiro Win 25.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bahia1.42
Cruzeiro1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bahia Bahia
WWDLW
21 GF / 18 GA
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WLDWL
21 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
9
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
10
5
Shots on Goal
4.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bahia Bahia 15 matches
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 18 matches
Bahia Statistic Cruzeiro
7 Wins 6
4 Draws 5
4 Losses 7
21 Goals For 21
18 Goals Against 26
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
9 BTTS Yes 9
12 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 4
5 Shots On Goal 4.22
13 Total Shots 12.83
5.33 Corners 4.44
55.2% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Bahia's more proactive style and Cruzeiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cruzeiro. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Bahia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 22 points compared to Cruzeiro in 15 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bahia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Cruzeiro in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cruzeiro having the stronger overall control.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia are currently 6 in the standings with 22 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, while the 19:16 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luciano Juba (6 goals), Everaldo (3 goals), Willian Jose (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (3 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro sit 15 with 16 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 18:24 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Christian (5 goals), Kaio Jorge (3 goals), N. Villarreal (3 goals), with creative support from Matheus Pereira (2 assists), Keny Arroyo (2 assists), L. Romero (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 3 times, Cruzeiro won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:18 from Bahia's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.4%)
Predicted formations: Bahia 4-3-3 / Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Bahia 3, Cruzeiro 7
H2H summary: Bahia wins 3, draws 6, Cruzeiro wins 6
Stats
Bahia Bahia
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
10
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
6 Corner Kicks 8
14 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 2
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Goal 7
3 Shots off Goal 10
2 Blocked Shots 3
5 Shots insidebox 14
3 Shots outsidebox 6
5 Goalkeeper Saves 2
351 Total passes 411
287 Passes accurate 360
1.12 expected_goals 1.52
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Bahia
Formation
Cruzeiro
Leo Vieira
Leo Vieira
Nicolas Acevedo
Nicolas Acevedo
David Duarte
David Duarte
S. Ramos
S. Ramos
Luciano Juba
Luciano Juba
Erick
Erick
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga
Everton Ribeiro
Everton Ribeiro
Jean Lucas
Jean Lucas
M. Sanabria
M. Sanabria
Willian Jose
Willian Jose
Otavio Costa
Otavio Costa
Fagner
Fagner
Fabricio Bruno
Fabricio Bruno
Jonathan Jesus
Jonathan Jesus
Kaua Moraes
Kaua Moraes
L. Romero
🎯
L. Romero
Matheus Henrique
Matheus Henrique
Gerson
Gerson
Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira
L. Sinisterra
L. Sinisterra
N. Villarreal
🎯
N. Villarreal
Bahia 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
22
Leo Vieira
G
5
Nicolas Acevedo
D
33
David Duarte
D
21
S. Ramos
🟨 35'
D
46
Luciano Juba
⚽ 27'
D
14
Erick
M
16
Erick Pulga
↓ 72'
M
10
Everton Ribeiro
↓ 61'
M
6
Jean Lucas
↓ 72'
M
23
M. Sanabria
↓ 46'
M
12
Willian Jose
↓ 34'
F
Substitutes
34
Joao Paulo
🟨 18'
G
7
Ademir
↑ 46'
F
15
Michel Araujo
↑ 72'
M
99
C. Olivera
↑ 72'
F
31
R. Gomez
D
2
Gilberto
D
27
Everaldo
↑ 34' 🟨 45+3'
F
25
Iago Borduchi
D
11
Rodrigo
↑ 61'
M
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
43
Luiz Gustavo
D
89
Dell
F
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
81
Otavio Costa
🟨 89'
G
23
Fagner
D
15
Fabricio Bruno
🟨 24'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
2
Kaua Moraes
⚽ 41' ↓ 72' 🟨 62'
D
29
L. Romero
🎯 86' 🟨 77'
M
8
Matheus Henrique
M
11
Gerson
↓ 78'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
↓ 46'
M
17
L. Sinisterra
↓ 72'
M
22
N. Villarreal
🎯 41' ↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
31
Matheus Cunha
G
25
L. Villalba
↑ 72'
D
94
Wanderson
↑ 72'
F
91
Chico
F
7
Marquinhos
F
44
Bruno Alves
D
16
Lucas Silva
↑ 78'
M
88
Christian
M
19
Kaio Jorge
↑ 62'
F
43
Joao Marcelo
D
77
Japa
M
70
Kenji
⚽ 86' ↑ 46'
F
Last matches: Bahia
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
2
1
W
Last matches: Cruzeiro
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
08.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
1
4
L
01.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Santos
0
0
D
18.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
25.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
1
1
D
H2H: Bahia vs Cruzeiro
10.05.26
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
15.09.25
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
18.04.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Bahia
3
0
L
19.10.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Bahia
1
1
D
23.06.24
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
25.10.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Bahia
3
0
L
10.06.23
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
23.07.22
H2H
Cruzeiro
Bahia
1
0
L
09.04.22
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
03.11.19
H2H
Cruzeiro
Bahia
1
1
D
20.07.19
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
02.12.18
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
19.08.18
H2H
Cruzeiro
Bahia
1
1
D
17.09.17
H2H
Cruzeiro
Bahia
1
0
L
09.06.17
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
Last matches: Bahia
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
H2H at home: Bahia
10.05.26
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
15.09.25
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
23.06.24
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
10.06.23
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
09.04.22
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
20.07.19
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
02.12.18
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
09.06.17
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
Last matches: Cruzeiro
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
08.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
12.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
2
2
D
30.01.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
4
L
H2H away: Cruzeiro
10.05.26
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
W
15.09.25
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
W
23.06.24
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
4
1
L
10.06.23
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
09.04.22
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
2
0
L
20.07.19
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
02.12.18
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
09.06.17
H2H
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
0
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6
Bahia Home
17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?

Missing Players

Bahia 3 missing
-
Ruan Pablo
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
Ronaldo Strada
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
Caio Alexandre
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Cruzeiro 7 missing
-
Cassio
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Marquinhos
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
N. Villarreal
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Kaua Prates
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
K. Arroyo
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
Bruno Rodrigues
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Kaiki
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT