BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Fonte Nova
Referee: P. Zanovelli
Bahia
Match Timeline
Chapecoense-sc
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Luciano Juba
Bahia
VAR
9'
Erick Pulga
Bahia
12'
Rodrigo
Bahia
34'
R. Gomez · Assist: David Duarte
Bahia
🔄
46'
Bruno Matias ↔ Vinicius Balieiro
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
46'
Enio ↔ Neto Pessoa
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
63'
Marcinho ↔ Rubens Ricoldi
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
63'
Marcos Vinicius ↔ Everton
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
64'
José Guilherme
Bahia
🔄
67'
Willian Jose ↔ Everton Ribeiro
Bahia
🔄
67'
Ademir ↔ Kaue Junior
Bahia
🔄
79'
Rodrigo ↔ Jean Lucas
Bahia
🔄
80'
Erick Pulga ↔ Everaldo
Bahia
🔄
81'
Camilo Reijers ↔ David Antunes
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
87'
David Duarte ↔ Marcos Victor
Bahia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 84.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.3%
-
BTTS Yes
84.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bahia Win 72.3%
Draw 4.9%
Chapecoense-sc Win 22.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bahia1.64
Chapecoense-sc1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bahia Bahia
WWDLW
31 GF / 28 GA
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WLDWL
19 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.89
14
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
9
4.95
Shots on Goal
3.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bahia Bahia 21 matches
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 18 matches
Bahia Statistic Chapecoense-sc
9 Wins 2
5 Draws 6
7 Losses 10
31 Goals For 19
28 Goals Against 34
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.89
14 BTTS Yes 12
18 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 6
4.95 Shots On Goal 3.41
13.58 Total Shots 12.82
5.74 Corners 3.65
55.7% Ball Possession 43.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Bahia's more proactive style and Chapecoense-sc's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bahia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Chapecoense-sc in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chapecoense-sc having the stronger overall control. Bahia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 26 points compared to Chapecoense-sc in 20 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chapecoense-sc.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia are currently 6 in the standings with 26 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, while the 25:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on Luciano Juba (7 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), Willian Jose (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (4 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without Leo Vieira, Luciano Juba, C. Olivera, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

With 9 points from 17 games and a place of 20, Chapecoense-sc still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 17:33, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through W. Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), Neto Pessoa (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), W. Clar (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Victor Caetano, Robert Conceicao, Mauricio Garcez unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 4 times, Chapecoense-sc won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:14 from Bahia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Bahia 4-3-3 / Chapecoense-sc 4-4-1-1
Missing players: Bahia 2, Chapecoense-sc 6
H2H summary: Bahia wins 4, draws 5, Chapecoense-sc wins 5
Stats
Bahia Bahia
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
3
10 Corner Kicks 6
17 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 2
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 5
5 Blocked Shots 3
7 Shots insidebox 6
10 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
504 Total passes 267
461 Passes accurate 221
1.83 expected_goals 0.41
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Bahia
Formation
Chapecoense-sc
Ronaldo Strada
Ronaldo Strada
R. Gomez
R. Gomez
David Duarte
🎯
David Duarte
S. Ramos
S. Ramos
Ze Guilherme
Ze Guilherme
Erick
Erick
Nicolas Acevedo
Nicolas Acevedo
Rodrigo
Rodrigo
Ademir
Ademir
Willian Jose
Willian Jose
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga
Matheus Aurelio
Matheus Aurelio
Marcos Vinicius
Marcos Vinicius
Rafael Thyere
Rafael Thyere
Eduardo Doma
Eduardo Doma
Bruno Pacheco
Bruno Pacheco
Bruno Matias
Bruno Matias
Camilo Reijers
Camilo Reijers
Enio
Enio
Giovanni Augusto
Giovanni Augusto
Marcinho
Marcinho
Y. Bolasie
Y. Bolasie
Bahia 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Ronaldo Strada
G
31
R. Gomez
⚽ 34'
D
33
David Duarte
🎯 34' ↓ 87'
D
21
S. Ramos
D
66
Ze Guilherme
🟨 64'
D
14
Erick
M
5
Nicolas Acevedo
M
11
Rodrigo
⚽ 12' ↓ 79'
M
7
Ademir
↓ 67'
F
12
Willian Jose
↓ 67'
F
16
Erick Pulga
↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
91
J. C. Neres dos Santos I.
G
10
Everton Ribeiro
↑ 67'
M
15
Michel Araujo
M
8
Caio Alexandre
M
23
M. Sanabria
F
27
Everaldo
↑ 80'
F
25
Iago Borduchi
D
6
Jean Lucas
↑ 79'
M
4
Kanu
D
46
Luciano Juba
🟨 -5'
D
44
Marcos Victor
↑ 87'
D
57
Kaue Junior
↑ 67'
M
Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
Matheus Aurelio
G
2
Marcos Vinicius
↓ 63'
D
15
Rafael Thyere
D
3
Eduardo Doma
D
91
Bruno Pacheco
D
16
Bruno Matias
↓ 46'
M
27
Camilo Reijers
↓ 81'
M
97
Enio
↓ 46'
M
10
Giovanni Augusto
M
7
Marcinho
↓ 63'
M
11
Y. Bolasie
F
Substitutes
1
Rafael Santos
G
17
Vinicius Balieiro
↑ 46'
M
33
Bruno Leonardo
D
70
Rubens Ricoldi
↑ 63'
M
26
Everton
↑ 63'
D
18
Neto Pessoa
↑ 46'
F
6
Mancha
D
21
Kauan
19
David Antunes
↑ 81'
M
50
Kassio
F
Last matches: Bahia
23.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
2
0
W
16.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
09.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
30.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
1
1
D
21.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Fluminense
0
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
Last matches: Chapecoense-sc
23.08.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
16.08.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
3
3
D
08.08.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Coritiba
1
2
L
25.07.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Santos
2
2
D
23.07.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Flamengo
0
4
L
04.07.26
Fri
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Palmeiras
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Remo
2
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Mirassol
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Fluminense
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Botafogo
1
4
L
12.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
05.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Vitoria
1
1
D
02.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico-MG
0
4
L
22.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Internacional
0
2
L
20.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Corinthians
0
0
D
16.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
1
1
D
12.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
H2H: Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc
16.08.26
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
3
3
D
17.07.26
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
01.10.22
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
3
1
L
14.06.22
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
0
1
L
24.10.21
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
3
0
W
04.07.21
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
0
2
W
07.11.19
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-SC
1
1
D
28.07.19
H2H
Chapecoense-SC
Bahia
0
0
D
04.11.18
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
1
0
W
19.07.18
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
1
1
D
26.11.17
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
0
1
L
02.08.17
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
1
1
D
12.10.14
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
0
1
L
01.06.14
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
2
1
L
Last matches: Bahia
09.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
1
1
D
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
H2H at home: Bahia
17.07.26
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
14.06.22
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
0
1
L
24.10.21
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
3
0
W
07.11.19
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-SC
1
1
D
04.11.18
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
1
0
W
26.11.17
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
0
1
L
12.10.14
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
0
1
L
Last matches: Chapecoense-sc
08.08.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Coritiba
1
2
L
25.07.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Santos
2
2
D
04.07.26
Fri
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Palmeiras
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Mirassol
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Fluminense
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Internacional
0
2
L
12.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
H2H away: Chapecoense-sc
17.07.26
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
L
14.06.22
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
0
1
W
24.10.21
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
3
0
L
04.11.18
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
1
0
L
26.11.17
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
0
1
W
12.10.14
H2H
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
0
1
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 15 6 3 44:20 24 51
W L D W L
2 23 13 6 4 45:21 24 45
L W W D D
3 24 13 5 6 34:22 12 44
W D W D W
4 24 11 8 5 36:29 7 41
W W D D D
5 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
6
Bahia Home
24 9 10 5 34:28 6 37
W D D D D
7 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
8 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
9 24 9 7 8 30:31 -1 34
W D W L D
10 24 8 8 8 26:24 2 32
L L W D D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 23 8 6 9 37:37 0 30
L L D W D
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 23 6 8 9 33:36 -3 26
D W L D L
15 23 6 7 10 24:31 -7 25
L L W D L
16 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
17 24 5 10 9 24:28 -4 25
D D D D L
18 23 6 6 11 26:36 -10 24
D L L W D
19 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
20 23 2 8 13 24:46 -22 14
W D L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Bahia 2 missing
-
Leo Vieira
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Luciano Juba
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Chapecoense-sc 6 missing
-
Max Alves
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Anderson
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Joao Paulo
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Victor Caetano
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
Robert Conceicao
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Mauricio Garcez
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT