BRAZIL SERIE B
10.05.2026 21:30
Estádio da Ressacada
Referee: P. Zanovelli
Avai
Match Timeline
Fortaleza EC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
-5'
Pierre
Fortaleza EC
🟨
33'
Bruno Baldini
Avai
🟨
38'
Ryan Gustavo
Fortaleza EC
🟨
45+2'
Guilherme Aquino
Avai
🔄
46'
Jean Lucas ↔ Sorriso
Avai
🔄
46'
Kaua Rocha ↔ Ronald
Fortaleza EC
🔄
63'
Vitinho ↔ Kayke
Fortaleza EC
🔄
64'
Ryan ↔ Rodrigo
Fortaleza EC
🟨
67'
Emanuel Brítez
Fortaleza EC
🔄
69'
Rafael Bilu ↔ Wenderson
Avai
🔄
80'
Pierre ↔ Lucas Sasha
Fortaleza EC
🔄
80'
T. Pochettino ↔ Welliton
Fortaleza EC
🟨
83'
Douglas Teixeira
Avai
🔄
84'
Thayllon ↔ Isaias
Avai
🔄
85'
Luiz Henrique ↔ Hyan
Avai
🟨
90+6'
Emanuel Brítez
Fortaleza EC
🟥
90+6'
Emanuel Brítez
Fortaleza EC
🔄
90+4'
Daniel Penha ↔ F. Avenatti
Avai

Avai vs Fortaleza EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Avai Win 39.4%
Draw 17.5%
Fortaleza EC Win 43.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Avai1.31
Fortaleza EC1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Avai Avai
WWDLW
10 GF / 9 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
10 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
4
BTTS Yes
3
4
Over 2.5
4
3.14
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Avai Avai 7 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 7 matches
Avai Statistic Fortaleza EC
2 Wins 4
3 Draws 2
2 Losses 1
10 Goals For 10
9 Goals Against 8
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
4 BTTS Yes 3
5 Over 1.5 4
4 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 3
3.14 Shots On Goal 3.86
11.57 Total Shots 12.14
4.43 Corners 4.14
50% Ball Possession 38.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fortaleza EC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Avai expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fortaleza EC in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Fortaleza EC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 14 points while Avai sit 11 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Fortaleza EC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Avai Analysis

Avai sit 11 with 9 points after 7 league matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:9 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Walace Franca (3 goals), Luiz Henrique (2 goals), F. Avenatti (1 goals), with creative support from Thayllon (2 assists), Jean Lucas (1 assists), Allyson (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 14 points after 7 matches. The return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 10:8, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. B. Miritello (3 goals), Vitinho (2 goals), Luiz Fernando (1 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Ruan Carvalho (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Avai won 1 times, Fortaleza EC won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:11 from Avai's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.5%)
Predicted formations: Avai 4-2-3-1 / Fortaleza EC 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Avai wins 1, draws 2, Fortaleza EC wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16
Avai Home
25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
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