🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
17.05.2026 00:30
Q2 Stadium
Referee: M. De Oliveira
Austin
Match Timeline
Sporting Kansas City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Capita
Sporting Kansas City
45'
M. Desler · Assist: Guilherme Biro
Austin
🔄
46'
Capita ↔ S. Suleymanov
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
47'
Jacob Davis
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
57'
Oleksandr Svatok
Austin
🔄
60'
C. Ramirez ↔ J. Nelson
Austin
🔄
60'
O. Wolff ↔ J. Gallagher
Austin
🟨
61'
Ilie Sánchez
Austin
🟨
63'
Zorhan Bassong
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
64'
Z. Bassong ↔ M. Garcia
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
64'
J. Davis ↔ J. Reynolds
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
71'
Jayden Nelson
Austin
🔄
73'
F. Torres ↔ B. Vazquez
Austin
🔄
73'
I. Sanchez ↔ D. Pereira
Austin
🔄
75'
T. Calheira ↔ S. Afrifa
Sporting Kansas City
79'
M. Garcia · Assist: S. Suleymanov
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
82'
I. James ↔ E. Bartlow
Sporting Kansas City
82'
S. Afrifa
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
84'
M. Desler ↔ C. Fodrey
Austin
🟨
86'
Calvin Fodrey
Austin

Austin vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 96.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
96.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Austin Win 96.3%
Draw 0%
Sporting Kansas City Win 3.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Austin1.53
Sporting Kansas City1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Austin Austin
WWDLW
21 GF / 33 GA
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WLDWL
16 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
0.89
1.74
Average Goals Conceded
2.17
9
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
12
4.08
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Austin Austin 19 matches
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 18 matches
Austin Statistic Sporting Kansas City
4 Wins 5
7 Draws 2
8 Losses 11
21 Goals For 16
33 Goals Against 39
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
1.74 Avg Goals Conceded 2.17
9 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 8
4.08 Shots On Goal 3.33
10.85 Total Shots 7.92
4.62 Corners 3.17
46.8% Ball Possession 42.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Austin arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 10 with 14 points compared to Sporting Kansas City in 15 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sporting Kansas City. Sporting Kansas City arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Austin Analysis

From their first 12 matches, Austin have collected 14 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 18:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Uzuni (5 goals), C. Ramirez (4 goals), M. Agyemang (3 goals), with creative support from F. Torres (5 assists), C. Ramirez (1 assists), J. Rosales (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

Sporting Kansas City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 5 points from 11 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 8:32 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Joveljic (5 goals), J. Davis (1 goals), Jacob Bartlett (1 goals), with creative support from J. Davis (1 assists), C. Harris (1 assists), J. Reynolds (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Austin won 7 times, Sporting Kansas City won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Austin's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.23 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Austin 4-4-2 / Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
Missing players: Austin 4, Sporting Kansas City 2
H2H summary: Austin wins 7, draws 1, Sporting Kansas City wins 5

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)