ECUADOR LIGA PRO
30.08.2026 18:00
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Referee: R. Leon
Aucas
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
32'
Luis Gustavino
Aucas
🔄
46'
R. Monti ↔ M. A. Carcelen Carabali
Aucas
🔄
63'
C. Zambrano ↔ R. Bolanos
Aucas
🔄
69'
X. E. Pineda Arana ↔ J. Bravo
Libertad
🔄
69'
A. Chere ↔ E. Caicedo
Libertad
🟨
71'
Piero Guzmán
Aucas
🔄
76'
V. Branda ↔ J. Guisamano
Libertad
🔄
76'
D. Coronel ↔ H. Batalla
Libertad
77'
R. Quinonez
Aucas
🔄
79'
Y. Quinonez ↔ G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🔄
89'
M. Burdisso ↔ M. Vera
Aucas
🟨
90'
Orlin Quinonez
Libertad

Aucas vs Libertad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 67.7%
Odds 1.14
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
67.7%
1.14
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.03
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.4%
1.17
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Aucas Win 44.3%
Draw 23.4%
Libertad Win 32.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aucas1.11
Libertad1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aucas Aucas
WWDLW
31 GF / 27 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
29 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.12
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
9
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
12
4.23
Shots on Goal
3.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aucas Aucas 28 matches
Libertad Libertad 26 matches
Aucas Statistic Libertad
14 Wins 10
5 Draws 7
9 Losses 9
31 Goals For 29
27 Goals Against 29
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
9 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 5
13 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 8
4.23 Shots On Goal 3.73
12.12 Total Shots 11.08
4.88 Corners 3.65
50.9% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Aucas's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Libertad look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Libertad.

Aucas Analysis

With 41 points from 25 games and a place of 4, Aucas still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 12 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 29:26, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Bruno Miranda (5 goals), Ayrton Preciado (3 goals), Andres Mena (3 goals), with creative support from Ayrton Preciado (3 assists), Piero Guzmán (3 assists), Andres Mena (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Libertad Analysis

So far, Libertad have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 34 points from 25 matches. The record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 28:29 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vilington Branda (6 goals), Gabriel Cortez (4 goals), Antony Chére (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (4 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Enrique Caicedo (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Aucas won 2 times, Libertad won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:12 from Aucas's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.6%)
Predicted formations: Aucas 4-1-4-1 / Libertad 5-4-1
H2H summary: Aucas wins 2, draws 2, Libertad wins 4

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
L W W D D
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W W L W W
4
Aucas Home
30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
L D D D W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
W D W D L
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
W L W D L
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
D L D W L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
D W L L W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
D L D D W
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L L W D W
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D D L W L
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
D W L L W
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D D L W L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs