CANADA CANADIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
28.08.2026 23:00
TD Place Stadium
Atlético Ottawa
Match Timeline
York United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
S. Yeates · Assist: L. Singh
York United
🟨
18'
F. Sturing
York United
🟨
42'
M. Aparicio
Atlético Ottawa
🟨
44'
O. Bassett
York United
🔄
46'
J. Assi ↔ S. Kozlovskiy
Atlético Ottawa
🟨
57'
A. Almagro
York United
🟨
61'
S. Kozlovskiy
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
64'
D. Aguilar ↔ J. Coulanges
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
64'
T. Arnaud ↔ J. Castro
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
67'
S. Gonzales ↔ M. Ferrari
York United
🟥
69'
S. Gonzales
York United
🟨
69'
Gustavo Leal
Atlético Ottawa
73'
B. Tabla · Assist: G. Antinoro
Atlético Ottawa
🟨
78'
J. Castro
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
80'
B. Badibanga ↔ K. Clarke
York United
🟨
81'
L. Cloutier
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
82'
K. Habibullah ↔ E. Garcia
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
86'
S. Yeates ↔ L. Accettola
York United
🟨
90+9'
N. Fleuriau Chateau
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
90+10'
B. Tabla ↔ R. Khoury
Atlético Ottawa
90'
N. Fleuriau Chateau · Assist: R. Mbomio
Atlético Ottawa

Atlético Ottawa vs York United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.6%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atlético Ottawa Win 85.6%
Draw 6.2%
York United Win 8.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlético Ottawa1.74
York United1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
WWDLW
32 GF / 40 GA
York United York United
WLDWL
22 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.9
Average Goals Conceded
2.06
14
BTTS Yes
12
15
Over 2.5
9
1.86
Shots on Goal
1.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa 21 matches
York United York United 17 matches
Atlético Ottawa Statistic York United
9 Wins 5
3 Draws 6
9 Losses 6
32 Goals For 22
40 Goals Against 35
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.9 Avg Goals Conceded 2.06
14 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 14
15 Over 2.5 9
10 Over 3.5 9
3 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 2
1.86 Shots On Goal 1.63
5.19 Total Shots 3.88
1.86 Corners 0.88
30.7% Ball Possession 16.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Atlético Ottawa's more proactive style and York United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward York United having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors York United. Atlético Ottawa come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Atlético Ottawa Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 30 points from 18 games, Atlético Ottawa bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 31:30, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

York United Analysis

From their first 15 matches, York United have collected 17 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 20:34 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlético Ottawa won 4 times, York United won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:27 from Atlético Ottawa's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Atlético Ottawa 4-2-3-1 / York United 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atlético Ottawa wins 4, draws 6, York United wins 5

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 4 2 37:11 26 43
W W W D W
2 20 13 3 4 30:15 15 42
D L W W L
3 21 10 4 7 34:34 0 34
D W L W W
4 20 8 3 9 26:23 3 27
L L L D W
5 19 6 4 9 27:33 -6 22
W D L L D
6 20 5 5 10 28:34 -6 20
L W L L D
7 18 4 7 7 23:38 -15 19
D L D W D
8 19 1 6 12 22:39 -17 9
D W L D D