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17.10.2026 17:00
TD Place Stadium
Atlético Ottawa
Match Timeline
Forge
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Levonte Johnson
Forge
🟨
19'
Diego Gutiérrez
Atlético Ottawa
⚽
33'
Anthony Aromatario
Forge
🟨
40'
Emiliano·García
Atlético Ottawa
⚽
54'
Levonte Johnson · Assist: Lucas Cavallini
Forge
🟨
55'
Antoine Batisse
Forge
VAR
59'
Diego Gutiérrez
Atlético Ottawa
🟥
61'
Diego Gutiérrez
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
64'
Kamron Habibullah ↔ G. Antinoro
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
65'
Tim Arnaud ↔ Jean-Aniel Assi
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
73'
Lucas Cavallini ↔ Ismael Oketokoun Hassane
Forge
🔄
74'
M. Bourgeois ↔ Hoce Massunda
Forge
🔄
74'
Levonte Johnson ↔ Ben Paton
Forge
🔄
74'
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau ↔ Reinaldo Abraham
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
74'
Emiliano·García ↔ Ralph Khoury
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
77'
Noah Jensen ↔ Tristan Borges
Forge
🔄
77'
Anthony Aromatario ↔ aghilas sadek
Forge
🔄
87'
Ballou Tabla ↔ Juan Castro
Atlético Ottawa
VAR
90+4'
G. Antinoro
Atlético Ottawa
⚽
90+7'
G. Antinoro
Atlético Ottawa

Atlético Ottawa vs Forge Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.4%
Odds 5.47
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.52
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.4%
5.47 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.52 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atlético Ottawa Win 62.4%
Draw 5.6%
Forge Win 32%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlético Ottawa1.2
Forge1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
WWDLW
40 GF / 48 GA
Forge Forge
WLDWL
47 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
16
BTTS Yes
13
18
Over 2.5
13
2.96
Shots on Goal
3.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa 28 matches
Forge Forge 28 matches
Atlético Ottawa Statistic Forge
13 Wins 16
4 Draws 7
11 Losses 5
40 Goals For 47
48 Goals Against 24
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
16 BTTS Yes 13
24 Over 1.5 18
18 Over 2.5 13
11 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 5
2.96 Shots On Goal 3.61
7.79 Total Shots 11.04
3.39 Corners 4.36
44.4% Ball Possession 33.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Forge's more proactive style and Atlético Ottawa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Forge. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlético Ottawa expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Forge in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Forge having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Atlético Ottawa Analysis

Atlético Ottawa arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 40 points after 25 matches. The record of 12 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 38:41 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Habibullah (2 goals), B. Tabla (1 goals), G. Antinoro (1 goals), with creative support from J. Assi (1 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Forge Analysis

Forge arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 51 points after 25 matches. The record of 15 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 41:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through N. Jensen (2 goals), M. Bourgeois (2 goals), L. Cavallini (2 goals), with creative support from N. Jensen (2 assists), I. Oketokoun (2 assists), H. Massunda (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlético Ottawa won 6 times, Forge won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Atlético Ottawa's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Atlético Ottawa 4-2-3-1 / Forge 4-3-3
H2H summary: Atlético Ottawa wins 6, draws 4, Forge wins 5

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 57:23 34 57
W D L L W
2
Forge Away
27 17 6 4 48:21 27 57
W W W D D
3 27 13 4 10 41:43 -2 43
L W W W L
4 27 10 7 10 39:36 3 37
W D D D D
5 27 10 5 12 43:47 -4 35
W D W W L
6 27 7 7 13 41:46 -5 28
L D D L W
7 27 6 9 12 40:64 -24 27
L L L W L
8 27 2 8 17 32:61 -29 14
L L L L W