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14.11.2026 20:30
Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62%
Odds 1.96
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds 1.80
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62%
1.96 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.57 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
1.80 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Nacional Win 62%
Draw 23.4%
Once Caldas Win 14.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Nacional1.56
Once Caldas1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
W D W W W
12 GF / 5 GA
Once Caldas Once Caldas
W W D D W
6 GF / 2 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
1.37
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
23
BTTS Yes
27
29
Over 2.5
15
6.23
Shots on Goal
5.87

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 47 matches
Once Caldas Once Caldas 41 matches
Atletico Nacional Statistic Once Caldas
30 Wins 15
5 Draws 18
12 Losses 8
89 Goals For 56
46 Goals Against 44
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
23 BTTS Yes 27
37 Over 1.5 31
29 Over 2.5 15
11 Over 3.5 8
14 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 6
6.23 Shots On Goal 5.87
16.21 Total Shots 15.59
5.28 Corners 5.41
58.9% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Nacional expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Once Caldas in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Once Caldas having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Once Caldas.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 40 points after 19 outings. They have recorded 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, with a 35:15 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Alfredo Morelos (13 goals), Andrés Sarmiento (11 goals), Edwin Cardona (9 goals), with creative support from Andrés Sarmiento (7 assists), Juan Manuel Rengifo (7 assists), Kevin Parra (7 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Once Caldas Analysis

Once Caldas come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 33 points after 19 matches. With 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 31:22, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Dayro Moreno (14 goals), Jefry Zapata (13 goals), Pipe Gómez (4 goals), with creative support from Juan David Cuesta (8 assists), A. Roa (4 assists), A. Correa (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Nacional won 8 times, Once Caldas won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:9 from Atletico Nacional's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (85.4%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Nacional 4-4-2 / Once Caldas 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Nacional wins 8, draws 4, Once Caldas wins 3

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
W L D W D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L W L W L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D D W W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W W D D W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W W L L L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W L L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L W L W D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D W D W D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
L D D W D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W W L L L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L W W L W
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D W L L
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W W L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
L L L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L W L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L L L W W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W L D W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L W L L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L W D W
Post season qualification