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SPAIN › LA LIGA
24.10.2026 19:00
Metropolitano Stadium

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Madrid Win 67.9%
Draw 3.9%
Deportivo La Coruna Win 28.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid1.67
Deportivo La Coruna1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WWDLW
30 GF / 17 GA
Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna
WLDWL
25 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
9
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
7
6.09
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 15 matches
Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 18 matches
Atletico Madrid Statistic Deportivo La Coruna
10 Wins 5
1 Draws 9
4 Losses 4
30 Goals For 25
17 Goals Against 21
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
9 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 13
12 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 3
6.09 Shots On Goal 4.33
16.36 Total Shots 11.67
5.82 Corners 5.22
59.3% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Atletico Madrid come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Atletico Madrid arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 19 points compared to Deportivo La Coruna in 8 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Deportivo La Coruna. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Atletico Madrid Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 19 points from 8 games, Atletico Madrid bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 18:8, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Álex Baena (4 goals), J. David (3 goals), Álex Grimaldo (3 goals), with creative support from Álex Baena (2 assists), J. David (2 assists), G. Simeone (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Deportivo La Coruna Analysis

So far, Deportivo La Coruna have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 11 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, while the 13:12 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on P. Aubameyang (5 goals), Mario Soriano (1 goals), Luismi Cruz (1 goals), with creative support from P. Aubameyang (2 assists), Mario Soriano (2 assists), Luismi Cruz (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Madrid won 10 times, Deportivo La Coruna won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:3 from Atletico Madrid's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.92 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Madrid 4-4-2 / Deportivo La Coruna 4-4-2
H2H summary: Atletico Madrid wins 10, draws 3, Deportivo La Coruna wins 0

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 9 0 0 39:9 30 27
W W W W W
2 9 7 1 1 19:8 11 22
W W W W W
3 9 7 0 2 23:9 14 21
W W L W W
4 9 6 1 2 16:14 2 19
L W D W W
5 9 5 1 3 17:17 0 16
W W W L W
6 9 4 2 3 14:16 -2 14
L D L W W
7 9 3 2 4 13:10 3 11
L L D L L
8 9 2 5 2 10:7 3 11
W D W D D
9 9 2 5 2 13:12 1 11
D L D L D
10 9 3 2 4 10:18 -8 11
W L D L L
11 7 2 3 2 7:6 1 9
D D D W
12 9 2 3 4 13:13 0 9
D L W W L
13 9 2 2 5 11:12 -1 8
L D L L W
14 7 2 2 3 11:16 -5 8
D W L W
15 8 2 2 4 4:10 -6 8
L W L D D
16 9 2 2 5 13:25 -12 8
L D L L W
17 8 1 4 3 12:16 -4 7
D D L L D
18 9 1 4 4 11:17 -6 7
D D W L D
19 9 1 3 5 6:15 -9 6
D D L W L
20 9 0 4 5 6:18 -12 4
L D L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2