14.08.2026 20:00
Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo
Referee: J. C. Quiroz
Atletico Grau
Match Timeline
Comerciantes Unidos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Flavio Alcedo
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
27'
Fabio Rojas
Comerciantes Unidos
VAR
36'
Gabriel Alfaro
Atletico Grau
🟨
44'
Adrián De la Cruz
Atletico Grau
51'
P. de la Cruz
Atletico Grau
🔄
63'
G. E. Alfaro Martinez ↔ E. Rodas
Atletico Grau
🔄
63'
M. Da Luz ↔ L. E. Benites Vargas
Atletico Grau
🔄
65'
A. Rodriguez ↔ J. Olivares
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
66'
M. P. Carpio Ferro ↔ T. Salinas
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
71'
D. Barreto ↔ A. Vasquez
Atletico Grau
🔄
79'
C. Vasquez ↔ I. Tapia
Atletico Grau
🔄
79'
P. de la Cruz ↔ D. Rodriguez
Atletico Grau
🔄
84'
J. Herrera ↔ W. Ayovi
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
87'
Piero Guzmán
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
88'
Maximiliano Pérez
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
88'
R. Vilca ↔ E. M. Perez Azambuya
Comerciantes Unidos

Atletico Grau vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.6%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico Grau Win 52.6%
Draw 14.3%
Comerciantes Unidos Win 33.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Grau0.95
Comerciantes Unidos1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
WWDLW
15 GF / 22 GA
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WLDWL
28 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
6
BTTS Yes
14
6
Over 2.5
10
3.95
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 21 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 23 matches
Atletico Grau Statistic Comerciantes Unidos
5 Wins 6
5 Draws 9
11 Losses 8
15 Goals For 28
22 Goals Against 30
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
6 BTTS Yes 14
9 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 5
12 Failed To Score 6
3.95 Shots On Goal 4.33
11.43 Total Shots 13.14
4 Corners 3.62
46.1% Ball Possession 46.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Comerciantes Unidos. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Atletico Grau have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Grau expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Comerciantes Unidos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Comerciantes Unidos having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Atletico Grau Analysis

Atletico Grau sit 16 with 16 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats with a 12:18 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Raúl Ruidíaz (2 goals), Rafael Guarderas (1 goals), Christian Neira (1 goals), with creative support from Rafael Guarderas (2 assists), Raúl Ruidíaz (1 assists), Elsar Rodas (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

So far, Comerciantes Unidos have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 21 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, while the 18:20 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Matías Sen (5 goals), Josuee Herrera (2 goals), Juan Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Josuee Herrera (3 assists), Rodrigo Vilca (3 assists), Mathías Carpio (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Grau won 5 times, Comerciantes Unidos won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:16 from Atletico Grau's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Grau 5-4-1 / Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Grau wins 5, draws 2, Comerciantes Unidos wins 5

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2