ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Nuevo Monumental
Atletico DE Rafaela
Match Timeline
Deportivo Maipu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
T. Silva · Assist: N. Galardi
Deportivo Maipu
🟨
34'
M. Bonfigli
Deportivo Maipu
🔄
46'
F. Jourdan ↔ A. Obando
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
46'
L. Moscoloni ↔ M. Quiroga
Atletico DE Rafaela
46'
A. Obando · Assist: M. Moreno
Atletico DE Rafaela
58'
T. Silva · Assist: J. Giacone
Deportivo Maipu
🔄
64'
J. Giacone ↔ L. Cabrera
Deportivo Maipu
🔄
68'
N. Cainelli ↔ J. Torrens
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
74'
T. Silva ↔ J. Vera
Deportivo Maipu
🔄
74'
M. Bonfigli ↔ M. Viguet
Deportivo Maipu
🔄
80'
M. Moreno ↔ M. Fernandez
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
80'
J. Capurro ↔ A. Rodriguez
Atletico DE Rafaela
🟨
85'
G. Fernandez
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
90+1'
F. Saccone ↔ T. Ferreyra
Deportivo Maipu
90'
M. Viguet · Assist: J. Vera
Deportivo Maipu

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.9%
-
BTTS No
65.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico DE Rafaela Win 64.9%
Draw 7.5%
Deportivo Maipu Win 27.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico DE Rafaela0.82
Deportivo Maipu1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela
WWDLW
14 GF / 16 GA
Deportivo Maipu Deportivo Maipu
WLDWL
25 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
0.7
Average Goals Scored
1.19
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1
5
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela 20 matches
Deportivo Maipu Deportivo Maipu 21 matches
Atletico DE Rafaela Statistic Deportivo Maipu
7 Wins 8
6 Draws 4
7 Losses 9
14 Goals For 25
16 Goals Against 21
0.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1
5 BTTS Yes 9
8 Over 1.5 11
5 Over 2.5 9
1 Over 3.5 5
11 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Deportivo Maipu having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Deportivo Maipu arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Deportivo Maipu. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Atletico DE Rafaela Analysis

Atletico DE Rafaela arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 27 points after 18 matches. The record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 14:12 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Maipu Analysis

With 22 points from 18 games and a place of 10, Deportivo Maipu still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 22:20 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Atletico DE Rafaela won 1 times, Deportivo Maipu won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:6 from Atletico DE Rafaela's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.5%)
Predicted formations: Atletico DE Rafaela 4-2-3-1 / Deportivo Maipu 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico DE Rafaela wins 1, draws 2, Deportivo Maipu wins 2

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 13 9 4 29:15 14 48
L W W W W
2 27 12 10 5 30:22 8 46
W W W L L
3 26 13 6 7 39:32 7 45
D W L L L
4 27 13 3 11 31:28 3 42
L L W L W
5 26 11 8 7 29:19 10 41
W L D W D
6 27 11 8 8 28:25 3 41
W L D W W
7 27 10 9 8 20:20 0 39
W D D W D
8 27 11 5 11 34:28 6 38
L W W L W
9 26 10 8 8 28:24 4 38
W W W D D
10 27 8 12 7 27:24 3 36
D W D D L
11 26 9 7 10 24:25 -1 34
W D L D W
12 27 9 7 11 22:29 -7 34
W D L D L
13 27 8 8 11 27:23 4 32
L L W D W
14 27 7 8 12 20:27 -7 29
L L L L L
15 26 7 8 11 22:30 -8 29
L W W L W
16 27 5 13 9 23:30 -7 28
L W D L D
17 27 7 6 14 19:29 -10 27
L L D L L
18 27 5 8 14 22:44 -22 23
D D D D L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation