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MEXICO › LIGA MX
25.10.2026 23:00
Estadio Jalisco

Atlas vs Puebla Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 47.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 45.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
47.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
45.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atlas Win 47.1%
Draw 17.2%
Puebla Win 35.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlas1.3
Puebla1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlas Atlas
WWDLW
23 GF / 26 GA
Puebla Puebla
WLDWL
20 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
10
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
6
4
Shots on Goal
4.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlas Atlas 18 matches
Puebla Puebla 15 matches
Atlas Statistic Puebla
6 Wins 6
5 Draws 4
7 Losses 5
23 Goals For 20
26 Goals Against 20
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
10 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 4
4 Shots On Goal 4.17
12.5 Total Shots 12.83
5.58 Corners 4.5
52.2% Ball Possession 42.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atlas's more proactive style and Puebla's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlas expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Puebla in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Puebla having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Puebla. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atlas arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 21 points compared to Puebla in 10 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Atlas Analysis

Atlas come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 21 points from 12 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 19:18 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luís Esteves (3 goals), F. Monzón (2 goals), R. Mmaee (2 goals), with creative support from K. Zenón (2 assists), Luís Esteves (1 assists), F. Monzón (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Puebla Analysis

Puebla sit 10 with 16 points after 12 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 12:13 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Tomás (2 goals), E. Gómez (1 goals), I. Maestro Puch (1 goals), with creative support from A. Herrera (2 assists), E. Gómez (1 assists), I. Maestro Puch (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlas won 7 times, Puebla won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:19 from Atlas's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.8%)
Predicted formations: Atlas 3-4-2-1 / Puebla 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atlas wins 7, draws 3, Puebla wins 5

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 27:14 13 24
W D W D L
2 12 6 3 3 26:16 10 21
D L D L W
3
Atlas Home
12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
4 12 5 5 2 19:12 7 20
D D L D W
5 12 6 2 4 27:21 6 20
W D D L W
6 11 6 2 3 15:13 2 20
L W W D W
7 12 5 3 4 18:17 1 18
L D W D W
8 11 5 2 4 19:16 3 17
W D L W D
9 12 5 1 6 17:16 1 16
W W W W W
10 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
11 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
12 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
13 12 3 5 4 14:16 -2 14
D W W L D
14 12 3 4 5 19:16 3 13
L D L D W
15 12 3 4 5 16:21 -5 13
D L W W L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 12 1 1 10 8:31 -23 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)