SPAIN LA LIGA
21.04.2026 17:00
San Mamés
Referee: V. Garcia
Athletic Club
Match Timeline
Osasuna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
5'
Gorka Guruzeta
Athletic Club
🟨
10'
Mikel Jauregizar
Athletic Club
16'
G. Guruzeta
Athletic Club
🟨
48'
Aimar Oroz
Osasuna
VAR
54'
Flavien Boyomo
Osasuna
🔄
65'
N. Williams ↔ R. Navarro
Athletic Club
🔄
65'
I. Ruiz de Galarreta ↔ A. Rego
Athletic Club
🔄
65'
A. Berenguer ↔ O. Sancet
Athletic Club
🔄
71'
L. Torro ↔ I. Munoz
Osasuna
🔄
71'
R. Garcia ↔ R. Moro
Osasuna
🔄
75'
A. Laporte ↔ D. Vivian
Athletic Club
🔄
78'
A. Oroz ↔ K. Barja
Osasuna
🔄
81'
Y. Berchiche ↔ A. Boiro
Athletic Club
🔄
84'
J. Moncayola ↔ R. Garcia
Osasuna
🔄
84'
J. Herrando ↔ M. Gomez
Osasuna
🟨
90+7'
Iñaki Williams
Athletic Club
🟨
90+1'
Mikel Jauregizar
Athletic Club
🟥
90+1'
Mikel Jauregizar
Athletic Club
🟨
90+8'
Moi Gomez
Osasuna

Athletic Club vs Osasuna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 72%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
72%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Athletic Club Win 28%
Draw 35.2%
Osasuna Win 36.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club1.18
Osasuna1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WWDLW
49 GF / 65 GA
Osasuna Osasuna
WLDWL
53 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.51
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
22
BTTS Yes
19
21
Over 2.5
18
4.3
Shots on Goal
4.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Athletic Club Athletic Club 44 matches
Osasuna Osasuna 35 matches
Athletic Club Statistic Osasuna
16 Wins 13
7 Draws 10
21 Losses 12
49 Goals For 53
65 Goals Against 45
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.51
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
22 BTTS Yes 19
31 Over 1.5 25
21 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 13
8 Clean Sheets 8
17 Failed To Score 10
4.3 Shots On Goal 4.09
13.68 Total Shots 12
5.5 Corners 3.76
47.9% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Athletic Club have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Osasuna. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 38 points from 31 matches. Their record of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 33:45, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Gorka Guruzeta (7 goals), R. Navarro (5 goals), N. Williams (4 goals), with creative support from I. Williams (4 assists), Yuri Berchiche (4 assists), Álex Berenguer (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with U. Egiluz, B. Prados Diaz, M. Sannadi unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Osasuna Analysis

So far, Osasuna have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 39 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 9 draws, and 12 losses, while the 37:38 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Budimir (16 goals), R. Garcia (5 goals), Victor Muñoz (5 goals), with creative support from R. Garcia (5 assists), J. Moncayola (4 assists), Victor Muñoz (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with I. Benito, A. Osambela, A. Catena unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Athletic Club won 6 times, Osasuna won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:15 from Athletic Club's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (72%)
Predicted formations: Athletic Club 4-2-3-1 / Osasuna 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Athletic Club 3, Osasuna 3
H2H summary: Athletic Club wins 6, draws 6, Osasuna wins 3

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2