BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Joaquim Portugal
Referee: L. Torezin
Athletic Club
Match Timeline
Nautico Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
17'
R. Tavares ↔ Samuel Otusanya
Athletic Club
🟨
20'
Derek Freitas
Nautico Recife
🟨
21'
Mateus Silva
Nautico Recife
🟨
24'
Ian Luccas
Athletic Club
🟨
42'
Marcelo Henrique
Athletic Club
🔄
56'
Ian Luccas ↔ Pedro Oliveira
Athletic Club
🔄
57'
Douglas Pele ↔ D. Vera
Athletic Club
🔄
66'
Gustavinho ↔ Kauan Lindes
Athletic Club
🔄
66'
Vinicius ↔ Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🔄
66'
Mateus Silva ↔ Yuri
Nautico Recife
🔄
72'
Junior Todinho ↔ Felipe Saraiva
Nautico Recife
81'
Victor Andrade · Assist: Yuri
Nautico Recife
🟨
82'
Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🟨
83'
Felipe Saraiva
Nautico Recife
🔄
86'
Luiz Felipe ↔ Samuel Felix
Nautico Recife
🔄
86'
Wenderson ↔ Ramon
Nautico Recife
🟨
90+4'
Zeca
Athletic Club

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 77%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
77%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
74.1%
-
HT / FT 1-1
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Athletic Club Win 51%
Draw 25.9%
Nautico Recife Win 23.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club1.44
Nautico Recife0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WWDLW
8 GF / 7 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
3 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
0.6
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
5
BTTS Yes
1
3
Over 2.5
2
4
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Athletic Club Athletic Club 5 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 5 matches
Athletic Club Statistic Nautico Recife
2 Wins 2
2 Draws 0
1 Losses 3
8 Goals For 3
7 Goals Against 6
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 0.6
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
5 BTTS Yes 1
5 Over 1.5 2
3 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 0
0 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 3
4 Shots On Goal 3
10 Total Shots 13.4
3.2 Corners 6.6
39.6% Ball Possession 60.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Athletic Club's more proactive style and Nautico Recife's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nautico Recife. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Athletic Club expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Nautico Recife in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nautico Recife having the stronger overall control. Nautico Recife arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Athletic Club Analysis

So far, Athletic Club have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 8 points from 5 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Belezi (1 goals), Ian Luccas (1 goals), with creative support from Jota (1 assists), Ruan Assis (1 assists), Zeca (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife sit 17 with 6 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 3:6, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Vinícius (2 goals), Igor Fernandes (1 goals), with creative support from Dodo (1 assists), Yuri (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Athletic Club won 0 times, Nautico Recife won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Athletic Club's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (77%)
Predicted formations: Athletic Club 4-3-3 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Athletic Club wins 0, draws 1, Nautico Recife wins 1
Stats
Athletic Club Athletic Club
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
7
7 Corner Kicks 4
14 Fouls 15
3 Offsides 3
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Goal 1
3 Shots off Goal 6
1 Blocked Shots 7
5 Shots insidebox 10
4 Shots outsidebox 4
0 Goalkeeper Saves 5
409 Total passes 342
341 Passes accurate 280
0.66 expected_goals 0.97
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Athletic Club
Formation
Nautico Recife
Luan Polli
Luan Polli
Zeca
Zeca
Joao Miguel
Joao Miguel
Felipe Vieira
Felipe Vieira
Douglas Pele
Douglas Pele
G. Cabezas
G. Cabezas
Ian Luccas
Ian Luccas
Marcelo Henrique
Marcelo Henrique
Kauan Rodrigues
Kauan Rodrigues
Gustavinho
Gustavinho
R. Tavares
R. Tavares
Muriel Becker
Muriel Becker
Matheus Ribeiro
Matheus Ribeiro
Mateus Silva
Mateus Silva
Betao
Betao
Igor Fernandes
Igor Fernandes
Luiz Felipe
Luiz Felipe
Wenderson
Wenderson
Junior Todinho
Junior Todinho
Dodo
Dodo
Vinicius
Vinicius
Derek
Derek
Athletic Club 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
Luan Polli
G
6
Zeca
🟨 90+4'
D
16
Joao Miguel
D
4
Felipe Vieira
2
Douglas Pele
↓ 57'
M
8
G. Cabezas
M
5
Ian Luccas
↓ 56' 🟨 24'
M
14
Marcelo Henrique
🟨 42'
M
17
Kauan Rodrigues
F
10
Gustavinho
↓ 66'
F
9
R. Tavares
↓ 17'
F
Substitutes
26
Glauco
G
12
Jhonatan Luiz
G
20
Samuel Otusanya
↑ 17'
F
11
Max
F
7
Bruninho
F
15
Alexandre Pena
3
Gustavo Morais
18
Pedro Oliveira
↑ 56'
M
21
D. Vera
↑ 57'
F
22
Gabriel Moyses
19
Kauan Lindes
↑ 66'
M
13
M. Oliveira
Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Muriel Becker
G
14
Matheus Ribeiro
D
25
Mateus Silva
↓ 66' 🟨 21'
D
3
Betao
D
23
Igor Fernandes
D
27
Luiz Felipe
↓ 86'
M
8
Wenderson
↓ 86'
M
29
Junior Todinho
↓ 72'
M
10
Dodo
M
7
Vinicius
↓ 66'
M
72
Derek
🟨 20'
F
Substitutes
55
G. Guruceaga
G
5
Auremir
M
11
Victor Andrade
⚽ 81' ↑ 66' 🟨 82'
F
93
Reginaldo
D
34
Wanderson
D
41
Samuel Felix
↑ 86'
M
6
Yuri
🎯 81' ↑ 66'
D
98
Felipe Saraiva
↑ 72' 🟨 83'
F
40
Ramon
↑ 86'
M
22
Vitinho
M
66
Leo Jance
D
31
Rosa
Last matches: Athletic Club
23.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
2
1
W
18.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
13.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Ceara
0
0
D
07.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Operario-PR
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Avai
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Londrina
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Goias
1
1
D
11.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Sport Recife
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Fortaleza EC
1
0
W
25.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Botafogo SP
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Juventude
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Cuiaba
0
0
D
04.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Vila Nova
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Novorizontino
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
CRB
3
2
W
05.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
America Mineiro
1
1
D
02.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Criciuma
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
Last matches: Nautico Recife
23.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
16.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
CRB
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Avai
0
2
L
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
3
4
L
14.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
2
2
D
09.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
01.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
H2H: Athletic Club vs Nautico Recife
27.04.26
H2H
Athletic Club
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
21.07.24
H2H
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
2
2
D
Last matches: Athletic Club
23.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
2
1
W
07.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Operario-PR
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Avai
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Goias
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Fortaleza EC
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Juventude
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Cuiaba
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
America Mineiro
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
H2H at home: Athletic Club
27.04.26
H2H
Athletic Club
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
Last matches: Nautico Recife
16.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
CRB
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Avai
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
3
4
L
14.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
1
L
01.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
H2H away: Nautico Recife
27.04.26
H2H
Athletic Club
Nautico Recife
0
1
W

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 11 6 2 23:12 11 39
W W W W W
2 19 10 5 4 27:22 5 35
W D W W W
3 19 10 4 5 27:22 5 34
W L L W L
4 19 9 5 5 21:12 9 32
L W W D W
5 19 9 4 6 22:19 3 31
L W L W W
6 19 8 6 5 28:18 10 30
L L L W W
7 19 8 5 6 21:25 -4 29
D W D W W
8 19 7 7 5 20:19 1 28
W D W L W
9 19 6 10 3 24:18 6 28
D D D L L
10 19 7 6 6 25:19 6 27
L D D L L
11 19 6 9 4 18:17 1 27
W D D L W
12 19 7 5 7 29:32 -3 26
W W D L W
13 19 7 3 9 24:24 0 24
W L L D L
14 19 6 6 7 24:20 4 24
W D D W L
15 19 5 9 5 14:14 0 24
L L D W D
16 19 5 5 9 26:27 -1 20
L D D W D
17 19 5 5 9 21:26 -5 20
W D W L L
18 19 4 7 8 16:22 -6 19
L D D L L
19 19 2 2 15 14:38 -24 8
L L L L L
20 19 1 5 13 13:31 -18 8
L D D L L
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