ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Olimpico
Referee: M. Marcenaro
AS Roma
Match Timeline
Atalanta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
N. Krstovic · Assist: M. De Roon
Atalanta
45'
M. Hermoso · Assist: D. Rensch
AS Roma
🔄
46'
S. Kolasinac ↔ H. Ahanor
Atalanta
🔄
46'
G. Scalvini ↔ O. Kossounou
Atalanta
🔄
46'
C. De Ketelaere ↔ N. Zalewski
Atalanta
🔄
54'
R. Bellanova ↔ L. Bernasconi
Atalanta
🔄
60'
N. El Aynaoui ↔ N. Pisilli
AS Roma
🔄
60'
G. Mancini ↔ D. Ghilardi
AS Roma
🔄
60'
S. El Shaarawy ↔ L. Venturino
AS Roma
🟨
65'
Éderson
Atalanta
🔄
71'
M. Soule ↔ R. Vaz
AS Roma
🟨
75'
Niccolò Pisilli
AS Roma
🔄
78'
D. Rensch ↔ K. Tsimikas
AS Roma
🔄
80'
Ederson ↔ M. Pasalic
Atalanta
🟨
90+1'
Berat Djimsiti
Atalanta

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71%
-
Probability Distribution
AS Roma Win 54%
Draw 0%
Atalanta Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma1.35
Atalanta1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
AS Roma AS Roma
WWDLW
64 GF / 42 GA
Atalanta Atalanta
WLDWL
69 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.49
Average Goals Scored
1.47
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
18
BTTS Yes
23
18
Over 2.5
23
4.49
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AS Roma AS Roma 43 matches
Atalanta Atalanta 47 matches
AS Roma Statistic Atalanta
23 Wins 21
5 Draws 13
15 Losses 13
64 Goals For 69
42 Goals Against 53
1.49 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
18 BTTS Yes 23
29 Over 1.5 36
18 Over 2.5 23
7 Over 3.5 12
17 Clean Sheets 17
8 Failed To Score 10
4.49 Shots On Goal 4.57
13.23 Total Shots 14.62
5.02 Corners 5.32
55.6% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. AS Roma appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Atalanta. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atalanta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. AS Roma have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

AS Roma Analysis

AS Roma sit 6 with 57 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 18 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats with a 45:28 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Malen (10 goals), M. Soule (6 goals), L. Pellegrini (4 goals), with creative support from M. Soule (5 assists), D. Rensch (3 assists), L. Pellegrini (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. Although they are without Wesley Franca, M. Kone, L. Pellegrini, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Atalanta Analysis

Atalanta sit 7 with 53 points after 32 league matches. The record of 14 wins, 11 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 44:28 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through N. Krstovic (9 goals), G. Scamacca (8 goals), C. De Ketelaere (3 goals), with creative support from C. De Ketelaere (5 assists), N. Zalewski (5 assists), N. Krstovic (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with K. Sulemana, I. Hien unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AS Roma won 2 times, Atalanta won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:26 from AS Roma's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: AS Roma 3-4-2-1 / Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Missing players: AS Roma 6, Atalanta 2
H2H summary: AS Roma wins 2, draws 4, Atalanta wins 9
Stats
AS Roma AS Roma
Atalanta Atalanta
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
3
7 Corner Kicks 6
4 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 3
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Goal 2
4 Shots off Goal 3
6 Blocked Shots 3
15 Shots insidebox 2
4 Shots outsidebox 6
1 Goalkeeper Saves 8
538 Total passes 488
462 Passes accurate 394
1.07 expected_goals 0.68
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

AS Roma
Formation
Atalanta
M. Svilar
M. Svilar
G. Mancini
G. Mancini
E. Ndicka
E. Ndicka
M. Hermoso
M. Hermoso
Z. Celik
Z. Celik
N. El Aynaoui
N. El Aynaoui
B. Cristante
B. Cristante
D. Rensch
🎯
D. Rensch
M. Soule
M. Soule
S. El Shaarawy
S. El Shaarawy
D. Malen
D. Malen
M. Carnesecchi
M. Carnesecchi
G. Scalvini
G. Scalvini
B. Djimsiti
B. Djimsiti
S. Kolasinac
S. Kolasinac
R. Bellanova
R. Bellanova
M. De Roon
🎯
M. De Roon
Ederson
Ederson
D. Zappacosta
D. Zappacosta
C. De Ketelaere
C. De Ketelaere
G. Raspadori
G. Raspadori
N. Krstovic
N. Krstovic
AS Roma 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
99
M. Svilar
G
23
G. Mancini
↓ 60'
D
5
E. Ndicka
D
22
M. Hermoso
⚽ 45'
D
19
Z. Celik
M
8
N. El Aynaoui
↓ 60'
M
4
B. Cristante
M
2
D. Rensch
🎯 45' ↓ 78'
M
18
M. Soule
↓ 71'
F
92
S. El Shaarawy
↓ 60'
F
14
D. Malen
F
Substitutes
70
G. De Marzi
G
95
P. Gollini
G
12
K. Tsimikas
↑ 78'
D
97
B. Zaragoza
F
61
N. Pisilli
↑ 60' 🟨 75'
M
24
J. Ziolkowski
D
78
R. Vaz
↑ 71'
F
3
Angelino
D
87
D. Ghilardi
↑ 60'
D
20
L. Venturino
↑ 60'
F
Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
29
M. Carnesecchi
G
42
G. Scalvini
↓ 46'
D
19
B. Djimsiti
🟨 90+1'
D
23
S. Kolasinac
↓ 46'
D
16
R. Bellanova
↓ 54'
M
15
M. De Roon
🎯 12'
M
13
Ederson
↓ 80' 🟨 65'
M
77
D. Zappacosta
M
17
C. De Ketelaere
↓ 46'
F
18
G. Raspadori
F
90
N. Krstovic
⚽ 12'
F
Substitutes
57
M. Sportiello
G
50
P. Pardel
G
6
Y. Musah
M
47
L. Bernasconi
↑ 54'
D
40
R. Obric
D
69
H. Ahanor
↑ 46'
D
8
M. Pasalic
↑ 80'
M
9
G. Scamacca
F
5
M. Bakker
D
3
O. Kossounou
↑ 46'
D
59
N. Zalewski
↑ 46'
M
10
L. Samardzic
M
Last matches: AS Roma
24.05.26
Ser
AS Roma
Hellas Verona
2
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
AS Roma
Parma
3
2
W
04.05.26
Ser
AS Roma
Fiorentina
4
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
AS Roma
Bologna
2
0
W
10.04.26
Ser
AS Roma
Pisa
3
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
AS Roma
Inter
2
5
L
22.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Lecce
1
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
AS Roma
Bologna
3
4
L
15.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Como
1
2
L
12.03.26
UEF
AS Roma
Bologna
1
1
D
08.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Genoa
1
2
L
01.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Juventus
3
3
D
22.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Cremonese
3
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Napoli
2
2
D
09.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Cagliari
2
0
W
02.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Udinese
0
1
L
29.01.26
UEF
AS Roma
Panathinaikos
1
1
D
25.01.26
Ser
AS Roma
AC Milan
1
1
D
22.01.26
UEF
AS Roma
VfB Stuttgart
2
0
W
Last matches: Atalanta
22.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Fiorentina
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
AC Milan
3
2
W
02.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
27.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cagliari
2
3
L
22.04.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Juventus
0
1
L
06.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lecce
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
18.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
4
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Inter
1
1
D
10.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
6
L
07.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Udinese
2
2
D
04.03.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
2
2
D
01.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Sassuolo
1
2
L
25.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
4
1
W
22.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Napoli
2
1
W
17.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
14.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lazio
2
0
W
09.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cremonese
2
1
W
H2H: AS Roma vs Atalanta
18.04.26
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
03.01.26
H2H
Atalanta
AS Roma
1
0
L
12.05.25
H2H
Atalanta
AS Roma
2
1
L
02.12.24
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
0
2
L
12.05.24
H2H
Atalanta
AS Roma
2
1
L
07.01.24
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
24.04.23
H2H
Atalanta
AS Roma
3
1
L
18.09.22
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
0
1
L
05.03.22
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
0
W
18.12.21
H2H
Atalanta
AS Roma
1
4
W
22.04.21
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
20.12.20
H2H
Atalanta
AS Roma
4
1
L
15.02.20
H2H
Atalanta
AS Roma
2
1
L
25.09.19
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
0
2
L
27.01.19
H2H
Atalanta
AS Roma
3
3
D
Last matches: AS Roma
17.05.26
Ser
AS Roma
Lazio
2
0
W
04.05.26
Ser
AS Roma
Fiorentina
4
0
W
10.04.26
Ser
AS Roma
Pisa
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Lecce
1
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
AS Roma
Bologna
3
4
L
01.03.26
Ser
AS Roma
Juventus
3
3
D
22.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Cremonese
3
0
W
09.02.26
Ser
AS Roma
Cagliari
2
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
AS Roma
AC Milan
1
1
D
22.01.26
UEF
AS Roma
VfB Stuttgart
2
0
W
13.01.26
Cop
AS Roma
Torino
2
3
L
10.01.26
Ser
AS Roma
Sassuolo
2
0
W
29.12.25
Ser
AS Roma
Genoa
3
1
W
15.12.25
Ser
AS Roma
Como
1
0
W
30.11.25
Ser
AS Roma
Napoli
0
1
L
27.11.25
UEF
AS Roma
FC Midtjylland
2
1
W
09.11.25
Ser
AS Roma
Udinese
2
0
W
29.10.25
Ser
AS Roma
Parma
2
1
W
23.10.25
UEF
AS Roma
Plzen
1
2
L
18.10.25
Ser
AS Roma
Inter
0
1
L
H2H at home: AS Roma
18.04.26
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
02.12.24
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
0
2
L
07.01.24
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
18.09.22
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
0
1
L
05.03.22
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
0
W
22.04.21
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
25.09.19
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
0
2
L
Last matches: Atalanta
22.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Fiorentina
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
AC Milan
3
2
W
27.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cagliari
2
3
L
06.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lecce
3
0
W
18.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
4
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Inter
1
1
D
04.03.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
2
2
D
01.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Sassuolo
1
2
L
17.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
14.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lazio
2
0
W
01.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Como
0
0
D
28.01.26
UEF
Atalanta
Union St. Gilloise
0
1
L
16.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
Pisa
1
1
D
07.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
Bologna
2
0
W
21.12.25
Ser
Atalanta
Genoa
1
0
W
06.12.25
Ser
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
1
3
L
26.11.25
UEF
Atalanta
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
0
W
22.11.25
Ser
Atalanta
Napoli
1
3
L
05.11.25
UEF
Atalanta
Marseille
1
0
W
01.11.25
Ser
Atalanta
Udinese
0
1
L
H2H away: Atalanta
18.04.26
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
02.12.24
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
0
2
W
07.01.24
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
18.09.22
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
0
1
W
05.03.22
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
0
L
22.04.21
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
1
1
D
25.09.19
H2H
AS Roma
Atalanta
0
2
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L

Missing Players

AS Roma 6 missing
-
Wesley Franca
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
M. Kone
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
L. Pellegrini
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
A. Dovbyk
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
P. Dybala
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
E. Ferguson
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
Atalanta 2 missing
-
K. Sulemana
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
I. Hien
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT