CYPRUS 1. DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Alphamega Stadium
Referee: A. Konstantinidis
Aris
Match Timeline
AEK Larnaca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Grigoris Kastanos
Aris
🟨
25'
Leon Balogun
Aris
29'
H. Milicevic
AEK Larnaca
🟨
52'
Gustavo Paje
Aris
55'
R. Bajic
AEK Larnaca
🔄
58'
Miramon ↔ C. Thoma
AEK Larnaca
59'
A. Cardero
AEK Larnaca
🔄
61'
Gustavo Paje ↔ R. Effaghe
Aris
🔄
61'
A. Dimitriou ↔ G. Kalulu
Aris
🔄
61'
D. Gaustad ↔ A. Kakoullis
Aris
65'
A. Kokorin
Aris
🔄
69'
A. Cardero ↔ C. Loukaidis
AEK Larnaca
🔄
69'
G. Naoum ↔ D. Gerasimou
AEK Larnaca
🟨
72'
Mamadou Sane
Aris
🟨
73'
Godswill Ekpolo
AEK Larnaca
🔄
73'
Vana Alves ↔ E. Sofroniou
Aris
77'
J. Montnor
Aris
🔄
80'
A. Paraskevas ↔ K. Komar
AEK Larnaca
🔄
80'
Mathias Gonzalez ↔ P. Pons
AEK Larnaca
82'
A. Kakoullis
Aris
🔄
90+1'
J. Montnor ↔ G. Trimintis
Aris
90'
R. Bajic
AEK Larnaca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aris Win 43.4%
Draw 12.8%
AEK Larnaca Win 43.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aris1.37
AEK Larnaca1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aris Aris
WWDLW
66 GF / 48 GA
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
WLDWL
76 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.49
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
19
BTTS Yes
25
23
Over 2.5
21
2
Shots on Goal
1.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aris Aris 39 matches
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 51 matches
Aris Statistic AEK Larnaca
16 Wins 25
10 Draws 14
13 Losses 12
66 Goals For 76
48 Goals Against 45
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.49
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
19 BTTS Yes 25
33 Over 1.5 36
23 Over 2.5 21
14 Over 3.5 10
15 Clean Sheets 19
7 Failed To Score 10
2 Shots On Goal 1.58
5.39 Total Shots 4.44
1.97 Corners 1.79
18.3% Ball Possession 21.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors AEK Larnaca. Aris have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Aris Analysis

With 51 points from 35 games and a place of 6, Aris still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 14 wins, 9 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 58:41 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on R. Effaghe (9 goals), J. Montnor (8 goals), Andronikos Kakoullis (7 goals), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

AEK Larnaca Analysis

AEK Larnaca arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 66 points after 35 matches. Their overall return of 19 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 58:30 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Hrvoje Miličević (12 goals), Riad Bajić (11 goals), Enzo Cabrera (8 goals), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aris won 4 times, AEK Larnaca won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:22 from Aris's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.2%)
Predicted formations: Aris 4-2-3-1 / AEK Larnaca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Aris wins 4, draws 4, AEK Larnaca wins 7

Lineups

Aris
Formation
AEK Larnaca
Vana Alves
Vana Alves
M. Sane
M. Sane
L. Balogun
L. Balogun
Y. Bourhane
Y. Bourhane
A. Dimitriou
A. Dimitriou
C. Fi Akamba
C. Fi Akamba
G. Kastanos
G. Kastanos
D. Gaustad
D. Gaustad
Gustavo Paje
Gustavo Paje
J. Montnor
J. Montnor
A. Kokorin
A. Kokorin
A. Paraskevas
A. Paraskevas
P. Ioannou
P. Ioannou
H. Milicevic
H. Milicevic
V. Roberge
V. Roberge
G. Ekpolo
G. Ekpolo
Miramon
Miramon
C. Kyriakou
C. Kyriakou
A. Cardero
A. Cardero
Mathias Gonzalez
Mathias Gonzalez
G. Naoum
G. Naoum
R. Bajic
⚽ 2
R. Bajic
Aris 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Vana Alves
↓ 73'
G
19
M. Sane
🟨 72'
D
27
L. Balogun
🟨 25'
D
18
Y. Bourhane
M
12
A. Dimitriou
↓ 61'
D
88
C. Fi Akamba
M
28
G. Kastanos
🟨 21'
M
29
D. Gaustad
↓ 61'
M
30
Gustavo Paje
↓ 61'
66
J. Montnor
⚽ 77' ↓ 90+1'
M
9
A. Kokorin
⚽ 65'
F
Substitutes
26
A. Pishias
G
40
R. Ergas
D
45
R. McCausland
M
42
A. Panagiotou
99
R. Effaghe
↑ 61'
F
36
V. Neokleous
90
E. Sofroniou
↑ 73'
G
2
G. Kalulu
↑ 61'
D
38
G. Melas
M
39
S. Pourikkos
M
80
A. Kakoullis
⚽ 82' ↑ 61'
F
41
G. Trimintis
↑ 90+1'
AEK Larnaca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
51
A. Paraskevas
↓ 80'
G
2
P. Ioannou
D
15
H. Milicevic
⚽ 29'
D
27
V. Roberge
D
22
G. Ekpolo
🟨 73'
D
21
Miramon
↓ 58'
M
25
C. Kyriakou
M
86
A. Cardero
⚽ 59' ↓ 69'
M
41
Mathias Gonzalez
↓ 80'
29
G. Naoum
↓ 69'
M
11
R. Bajic
⚽ 55' ⚽ 90'
F
Substitutes
1
Z. Alomerovic
G
14
A. Garcia
D
40
K. Strouthou
D
6
Jimmy Suarez
M
36
C. Loukaidis
↑ 69'
F
35
C. Thoma
↑ 58'
M
12
K. Komar
↑ 80'
G
4
E. Saborit
D
37
D. Gerasimou
↑ 69'
F
7
Ledes Gustavo
M
17
P. Pons
↑ 80'
M
Last matches: Aris
16.05.26
1.
Aris
Apollon Limassol
2
3
L
10.05.26
1.
Aris
Pafos
0
2
L
06.05.26
1.
Aris
Apoel Nicosia
1
0
W
02.05.26
1.
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
0
3
L
25.04.26
1.
Aris
AEK Larnaca
0
2
L
18.04.26
1.
Aris
Apollon Limassol
3
0
W
14.04.26
1.
Aris
Pafos
1
1
D
05.04.26
1.
Aris
Apoel Nicosia
1
2
L
21.03.26
1.
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
2
2
D
15.03.26
1.
Aris
Apoel Nicosia
1
2
L
08.03.26
1.
Aris
Enosis
4
0
W
01.03.26
1.
Aris
Pafos
2
2
D
20.02.26
1.
Aris
Krasava Ypsonas
1
1
D
14.02.26
1.
Aris
Akritas
1
1
D
09.02.26
1.
Aris
Anorthosis
0
1
L
01.02.26
1.
Aris
AEL
1
2
L
25.01.26
1.
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
3
5
L
17.01.26
1.
Aris
Ethnikos Achna
3
0
W
10.01.26
1.
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
0
W
04.01.26
1.
Aris
Olympiakos
0
0
D
Last matches: AEK Larnaca
16.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
2
D
10.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
1
1
D
06.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
1
0
W
03.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
0
1
L
25.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Aris
2
0
W
18.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
1
D
14.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
05.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
1
1
D
22.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
1
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
1
2
L
16.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Ethnikos Achna
2
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
06.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Akritas
3
0
W
01.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Olympiakos
1
1
D
22.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Aradippou
1
2
L
14.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
0
1
L
08.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
2
1
W
31.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Enosis
5
0
W
25.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
1
W
18.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Krasava Ypsonas
2
1
W
H2H: Aris vs AEK Larnaca
22.05.26
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
3
4
L
25.04.26
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Aris
2
0
L
10.01.26
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
0
W
22.09.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Aris
3
2
L
27.04.25
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
0
W
29.03.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Aris
1
1
D
09.02.25
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
03.11.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Aris
2
0
L
14.04.24
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
0
1
L
04.03.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Aris
1
1
D
09.12.23
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Aris
2
1
L
21.08.23
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
2
0
W
06.05.23
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Aris
1
1
D
20.03.23
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
4
0
W
15.01.23
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Aris
4
3
L
Last matches: Aris
06.05.26
1.
Aris
Apoel Nicosia
1
0
W
18.04.26
1.
Aris
Apollon Limassol
3
0
W
14.04.26
1.
Aris
Pafos
1
1
D
21.03.26
1.
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
2
2
D
15.03.26
1.
Aris
Apoel Nicosia
1
2
L
01.03.26
1.
Aris
Pafos
2
2
D
09.02.26
1.
Aris
Anorthosis
0
1
L
25.01.26
1.
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
3
5
L
10.01.26
1.
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
0
W
20.12.25
1.
Aris
Omonia Aradippou
2
2
D
29.11.25
1.
Aris
Enosis
4
0
W
08.11.25
1.
Aris
Krasava Ypsonas
3
0
W
31.10.25
1.
Aris
Akritas
3
1
W
19.10.25
1.
Aris
AEL
4
0
W
26.09.25
1.
Aris
Ethnikos Achna
3
0
W
15.09.25
1.
Aris
Olympiakos
2
0
W
23.08.25
1.
Aris
Apollon Limassol
3
1
W
07.08.25
UEF
Aris
AEK Athens FC
2
2
D
24.07.25
UEF
Aris
Puskas Academy
3
2
W
H2H at home: Aris
22.05.26
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
3
4
L
10.01.26
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
0
W
27.04.25
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
0
W
09.02.25
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
14.04.24
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
0
1
L
21.08.23
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
2
0
W
20.03.23
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
4
0
W
Last matches: AEK Larnaca
10.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
1
1
D
03.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
0
1
L
18.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
1
D
05.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
1
1
D
16.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Ethnikos Achna
2
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
22.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Aradippou
1
2
L
08.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
2
1
W
25.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
1
W
10.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Aris
0
1
L
22.12.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
AEL
1
0
W
11.12.25
UEF
AEK Larnaca
BK Hacken
1
1
D
01.12.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Akritas
1
1
D
27.11.25
UEF
AEK Larnaca
HNK Rijeka
0
0
D
22.11.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Olympiakos
4
1
W
02.11.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
2
1
W
23.10.25
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
1
0
W
18.10.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Enosis
2
0
W
27.09.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Krasava Ypsonas
4
0
W
17.09.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
0
1
L
H2H away: AEK Larnaca
22.05.26
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
3
4
W
10.01.26
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
0
L
27.04.25
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
0
L
09.02.25
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
14.04.24
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
0
1
W
21.08.23
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
2
0
L
20.03.23
H2H
Aris
AEK Larnaca
4
0
L

Standings

1-division: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 19 4 3 63:17 46 61
W W D L W
2 26 16 5 5 49:22 27 53
W W D L L
3 26 16 5 5 36:22 14 53
D W D W W
4 26 16 3 7 53:24 29 51
W W D D W
5 26 13 6 7 45:27 18 45
W L W W L
6
Aris Home
26 12 7 7 48:26 22 43
L W D D D
7 26 10 4 12 23:31 -8 34
W L W W D
8 26 10 3 13 31:38 -7 33
L L L W L
9 26 7 11 8 23:33 -10 32
D W W D D
10 26 8 4 14 26:36 -10 28
W L W D D
11 26 6 10 10 22:37 -15 28
L W D L D
12 26 7 5 14 23:48 -25 26
L L L W D
13 26 7 2 17 25:44 -19 23
L L L L W
14 26 0 1 25 5:67 -62 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Cyprus League (Relegation Group)